Tim Leunig
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Tim Leunig is Chief Economist at CentreForum, the liberal think tank, and Reader in Economic History at the London School of Economics. He is the recipient of three international academic prizes, and three prizes for outstanding teaching. His academic research concentrates on the UK and US since 1600. Often with coauthors he has answered questions such as whether boys who went to see ended up taller than those who did not (they did - sailors were fed well), whether smallpox caused stunting (it did), and the value of the passenger railways to England in the nineteenth century (about 15% of GDP on a social savings basis). He is currently investigating why women were paid less than men in Swedish tobacco firms (fewer well-paid outside options), and whether firms that employed more of them did better (yes), why the UK textile industry collapsed after world war two, despite inventing polyester (invention =/= manufacturing) and whether an apprentice migrant to London in the seventeenth century led others to follow in his footsteps (not to any extent).

He has written widely for the press and for think tanks, as well as authored papers for the UK government, political parties, and international organisations. He was a member of the UK government's Barker Review of Land Use Planning Advisory Panel, the UK's "New Industries, New Jobs Agenda" Advisory Group, and with Prof Nick Crafts he authored a paper for the UK Eddington Review of Transport and the economy. He was the 2011 OECD International Transport Federation Academic Plenary speaker, speaking on transport and the economy. More generally he has expertise on housing, transport, the UK benefits system and pensions, regional regeneration, as well as the application of economics to policy more widely.

Blog Entries by Tim Leunig

Dealing With Water Shortages: A Lesson From Western Australia

(1) Comments | Posted 19 April 2012 | (11:06)

I recently wrote a paper outlining an alternative to the hosepipe ban. I proposed that rather than impose a crude universal hosepipe ban, water companies should incentivise business users to use less water, and if necessary charge households that use particularly high amounts of water more per unit. Charging these...

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Budget 2012: The Case for Tax Equality

(0) Comments | Posted 5 March 2012 | (11:42)

Given that the tax allowance is going up, the government should revisit the additional tax allowance given to pensioners. This was originally created to ensure that pensioners with small private pensions would not have to pay tax. This happens anyway, given that the basic allowance is going up dramatically. The...

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Vince Cable Right to Abandon Penalties on Early Student Loan Repayments

(1) Comments | Posted 19 February 2012 | (23:00)

Vince Cable has done the right thing, for the right reasons.

The new student loan system requires well-off graduates to pay a higher rate of interest on their loans - up to three percent above inflation. This helps to cover the government losses on loans to graduates who...

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From High Street to Bond Street

(0) Comments | Posted 8 February 2012 | (11:05)

Recessions mean bankruptcies, and bankruptcies in the retail sector mean boarded up high streets. Between 2008 and 2010 the number of empty shops has gone up five fold. Only one shop in 40 was empty in 2008, but the rate is now one in seven. It is higher still...

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The Tragedy of State Education Outside London

(0) Comments | Posted 7 February 2012 | (22:58)

At an IPPR North conference last December I criticised education in Leeds, noting that a child from a poor family typically does much better in London than in Leeds - or any other city outside London. To my surprise, the Yorkshire Post quoted my speech with approval.

I...

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It's Official: Waivers and Bursaries Don't Attract Students

(1) Comments | Posted 31 January 2012 | (11:08)

The data are out. We know how many people applied to each university, and how much that has changed since the previous year.

We also know how much each university is charging, how much they are spending on waivers, and how much they are spending on bursaries. My thanks...

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Calculating How the Benefit Cap Cuts

(5) Comments | Posted 22 January 2012 | (23:00)

Yesterday I published an analysis of the government's £26,000 benefits cap for people out of work. It makes for grim reading.

After basic expenses - rent, council tax and utilities - it turns out that the government expects people to live on 62p per day....

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Faster Broadband? No Thanks

(2) Comments | Posted 13 January 2012 | (12:26)

This week Virgin Media announced that they will double broadband speeds over the next 18 months. The company will invest £110m - £27.50 per customer - to do this. The move has been welcomed by the prime minister, no less, who said that it "will provide a great boost for...

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HS2 - Why Oh Why?

(7) Comments | Posted 9 January 2012 | (04:00)

Sadly the idea of building a high speed rail line from North to South is in the news again. The idea is to spend £30bn or so building a new line from London to Birmingham. This will cut journey times, and increase capacity.

There are three reasons...

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Graduate Exodus is Harming the Welsh Economy

(1) Comments | Posted 4 January 2012 | (23:00)

Four Welsh academics have recently written an excellent paper looking at what happens to Welsh graduates, and students who graduate from Welsh universities. Their careful work helps us to understand something about the development and interaction of the national and regional economies within the United Kingdom.

First off,...

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The Euro in 2012 - What Can We Expect?

(10) Comments | Posted 27 December 2011 | (23:00)

The world economy will grow next year, but growth will be largely confined to developing nations. Their ability to grow even when developed economies are struggling has surprised economists. It means that we can be confident that fewer children will go to bed hungry next year than this year. That...

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Education is Key to Unlocking Growth in England's Cities

(0) Comments | Posted 8 December 2011 | (20:43)

On Thursday, the Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg and Minister for Cities Greg Clark launched the Cabinet Office paper 'Unlocking growth in cities'. This is the evidence base for the proposed city-led transfer of powers from London to England's largest cities.

Clegg was passionate and Middlesbrough-born Clark as...

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Making the Right to Strike Fair

(0) Comments | Posted 29 November 2011 | (16:00)

Public sector workers strike far more often than those in the private sector.

Since 2000, the number of days lost, per worker, has been 30 times higher in the public than in the private sector, even though public sector earnings have risen faster.

The Employment Act 1982 states that...

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National Insurance is Complex and Pointless and Should be Abolished

(5) Comments | Posted 7 November 2011 | (22:00)

The UK tax system was recently reviewed by a committee of "some of the world's finest economic brains", headed by Nobel Prize Winner in Economics, Professor Sir James 'Jim' Mirrlees.

The Committee's report was wide-ranging, radical and generally right. There ARE good economic reasons to levy the full...

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Riots, Justice and Reconciliation

(0) Comments | Posted 13 August 2011 | (10:48)

Natasha Reid, a 24 year old graduate, was in McDonalds in Enfield on Sunday night. She noticed that Comet was being looted, and went in and helped herself to a £270 television. There is no suggestion that she caused any damage, or was violent in any way. She realised that...

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Gas Prices - why are Utility Companies Hitting the Poorest Hardest?

(0) Comments | Posted 12 August 2011 | (13:30)

Global gas prices are going up, and prices for UK consumers are going up too. Gas suppliers are raising prices by around 18-20%.

Consumer price rises are inevitable when the wholesale price goes up. But my supplier, E.ON, has structured its price rises to hit the poor more than...

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Terrible News About UK Growth

(0) Comments | Posted 26 July 2011 | (11:24)

No doubt someone somewhere will be spinning today's growth rates as a success. But growth at these levels (0.2%) can only be described as anaemic. An economy in recovery should be catching up with its potential, making good the shortfall from the last couple of years. That means growing at...

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Are There Really Two Britains by Qualifications?

(0) Comments | Posted 24 July 2011 | (23:04)

The University and College Union (declaration of interest: I am a member) have publicised ONS figures showing that the proportion of people with no skills varies dramatically by parliamentary constituency.

The data are based on samples, so the margins of error are large. But, taken as a...

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University Fees are too High: The System has Failed

(4) Comments | Posted 14 July 2011 | (13:48)

The facts speak for themselves. University fees will average £8,393 from 2012-3. Even after fee waivers for students from poorer backgrounds, the average will be £8,161. One in three universities will charge £9,000 for all courses.
As expected, the Office of Fair Access has proven completely toothless. It...

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Is Cameron as Ruthless as Murdoch?

(12) Comments | Posted 10 July 2011 | (18:26)

In shutting the News of the World, the Murdochs have shown themselves to be ruthless. Their ruthlessness changed the story, although it has not killed it.

David Cameron needs to be as ruthless. So long as the Murdochs have a powerful media presence, his hiring of Andy...

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