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Austerity Alone Is Not the Answer

Posted: 23/11/2012 00:00

We have reached a defining moment in Europe's response to the economic crisis. The immediate threat of eurozone disintegration has passed, but the prospect of slipping back into recession is a very real danger for much of the continent. Progress on a banking union and other institutional reforms are only part of the answer. Without a more active approach to stimulating new economic activity, stagnation could lead to a renewed crisis posing a serious threat to the stability and unity of Europe.

There is a rising popular frustration at the failure of austerity to deliver the promised recovery. With no end to high unemployment and falling living standards in sight, voters across Europe are throwing out incumbent governments and looking for alternatives.

So far the main beneficiaries have been moderate pro-EU parties of the centre-left who have returned to power in Denmark, France, the Netherlands, Lithuania and Romania. But there has also been a sharp rise in support for populist parties of the far right and far left offering solutions based on xenophobia, protectionism or hostility to European integration. This provides an ominous warning of what could happen if mainstream politics fails to respond to growing public anger.

The economic assumptions around which the economic consensus was formed two years ago are now widely regarded as flawed. The IMF has just acknowledged that previous forecasts had significantly underestimated the likely impact of public spending cuts in lowering growth. The negative effect - the so-called fiscal multiplier - has turned out to be two or three times greater than expected. There is therefore a growing recognition that over-zealous budgetary consolidation can add to the sovereign debt crisis by choking off government revenue.

It is important for governments to reassess and adjust their economic plans in light of this new evidence. The answer is not to abandon the medium-term goal of fiscal consolidation, but to give more emphasis to the growth-supporting policies needed to make that goal credible. As Christine Lagarde recently argued, we are treading a "narrow path" between the risks of debt and recession, but that "without growth, the future of the global economy is in jeopardy".

In another significant departure from recent orthodoxy, there is an emerging consensus in the IMF and elsewhere that widening social inequalities not only contribute to the crisis, but are now holding back recovery. Research suggests that large divisions of income and wealth weaken demand and generate economic imbalances that create instability and undermine growth.

Romania was badly hit by the financial crash, a situation made worse by an ill-judged austerity programme that led teachers and doctors to have a lower salary than unskilled workers, resulting in massive migration. As a coalition of socialists and liberals, our priority is to build a sustainable recovery based on inclusive growth, with the right balance between strict budgetary discipline and economic recovery, as well as between economic and social development. The initial results are promising.

We remain firmly committed to achieving budgetary consolidation. Romanian public debt is coming down and we reduced the public deficit from 4.1% of GDP in 2011 to 2.2% of GDP in 2012, two reasons for the recent positive assessments of my government's economic policies by the IMF.

We combine fiscal adjustment with pro-enterprise measures to support growth and boost employment. We have reformed our VAT reimbursement policies to help SMEs. Longstanding debts of international companies by Romanian public companies are being reimbursed. We are cutting red-tape and have already cancelled the arrangements murky energy intermediaries had in place which led to a cumulative loss of one billion Euros for Romania in the last six years. We maintain low tax rates and have even introduced new corporate tax breaks to favour investment and job creation.

At the same time, we have begun to restore public sector wages, slashed in 2010 by the former government. We are also returning the health insurance payments that the former government had had been unlawfully demanding from retirees. We have also engaged a reform of our educational system.

We are confident that we are developing the right policy mix based on fiscal responsibility, structural reforms, economic dynamism and social inclusion. But we cannot succeed in isolation from the rest of Europe. EU leaders need to pull together innovative solutions. We should be thinking about how we use the European level instruments at our disposal, such as the European Investment Bank, to create new public-private partnerships and get infrastructure investment moving. Austerity alone is not the answer. We need to show that we are responding the demands of Europe's citizens to find a better way out of our common crisis.

 
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We have reached a defining moment in Europe's response to the economic crisis. The immediate threat of eurozone disintegration has passed, but the prospect of slipping back into recession is a very re...
We have reached a defining moment in Europe's response to the economic crisis. The immediate threat of eurozone disintegration has passed, but the prospect of slipping back into recession is a very re...
 
 
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21:17 on 23/11/2012
There are some basic reasons who kept Romania afloat. 1- the average net wage of 361 E, the second lowest in the EU.2-the money sent by the many Romanians working abroad(some 2 millions), mainly in Spain and Italy.
The increase of the wages in an electoral year , the deep crisis in Spain and Italy (less money transfered to Romania), the collapse of foreign investment(especially after the political instability created by mr Ponta's actions to oust the president), all this may keep Romania on the border of recession at best.
Mr Ponta is the least entitled to advise Europe how to act. His personal credibility in Europe due to plagiarism and bad political decisions is very low. His party is stricken by corruption(not only his party). "We cannot succeed in isolation from the rest of Europe" he says. As a matter of fact, Romania is still afloat BECAUSE of Europe
21:13 on 23/11/2012
Next year he`ll be alone in Romania because all his countrymen will be over here on benefits.
20:11 on 23/11/2012
This is a Romanian politician trying to bang his own drum?
He has and will be a disaster for that country?
Notice he didn"t mention Corruption anywhere in his item??????????
20:08 on 23/11/2012
This from a man who spent the whole summer trying to oust the president and ruin nthe country in the process?
19:15 on 23/11/2012
This is a Huffington Post article summarizing the documentary "The Flaw" which came out in 2010:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/stephen-lambert/post_1119_b_772911.html

The documentary argues that the underlying problem in the economic crisis in the US is wealth inequality created by 25 years of asset market driven growth so that by 2008 the top 1% in the US had 23% of the wealth. The only previous time this had happened was in 1929 before the great depression when it was 22%. By the 1950s this was back down to 9% and didn't begin to grow significantly until Wall Street deregulation in the 80's. The problem with this wealth disparity once you hit an economic crisis is that the money is now in the pockets of rich people who don't need it and aren't spending it, while the rest of society has significantly less so there is far less consumption which further compounds the problem. The only solution in such a situation is for government to spend so as to redistribute wealth to the lower 90%. That's what FDR did in the 30s and that's what Obama is doing now.

Europe also has a wealth disparity problem, but for some reason the solution was to do the opposite? Where is the logic?
lastpost
see biography
17:23 on 23/11/2012
“a defining moment in Europe's response”
Finding out those in authority are out of their depth?

“threat of eurozone disintegration has passed”
Translation: Cries of the people are inaudible, from atop ivory towers.

“banking union”
The Euro effect, on steroids.

“a renewed crisis posing a serious threat to the stability and unity of Europe.”
One problem over (ignored), next problem on its way?

“failure of austerity to deliver”
So much for plans A though Z.

“voters across Europe are throwing out incumbent governments”
Throwing out voting is usually what follows.

“hostility to European integration”.
A true democracy administered by the saintly, might have had a future.

“The economic assumptions”
Never mind real figures. Devise something. A system designed around falsehood, engineers its own failure.

“It is important for governments”
in this predicament to establish a dictatorship.

“we are treading a "narrow path" between”
dream and reality.

“Research suggests that”
starving citizens in distressed regions stop buying BMWs.

“our priority is to”
learn Iceland’s lessons, and frog-march monetary meddlers out the door.

“cancelled the arrangements murky energy intermediaries had in place”
So much for the EU’s single growth sector.

“government had been unlawfully demanding”
If all member states formed a fighting fund, they might recover sufficient monies from covert community activities to re-float their financial boat.

“we cannot succeed”
in a community based on the worst excesses of the wild west.

“Investment Bank”
Surely a misnomer. The only profit from printing money accrues to the printer.
16:15 on 23/11/2012
When you only aim austerity at the ordinary people in life and only expecting them to fill the big hole that incompetent governments have left but help themselves to huge amounts of tax payers money on there expense something is really wrong in way this country is being run. It means the country is being run by dictators and not leaders.
15:06 on 23/11/2012
The cure for the "Great Depression" of the 1930's was government spending, NOT government austerity!

Why doesn't this government learn from history, or are they too busy lining their own pockets to care?
14:34 on 23/11/2012
part 2- we will not come out of recession untill the average bod has the ability to spend.
14:33 on 23/11/2012
We have austerity and the most vulnerable are being made to suffer. They are having to spend less on food, in some cases this is not a bad thing, my husband has lost 3 stones this year and he is better for it but this is not so good for others who are now dependant on food banks to feed their children.
Because so many are spending less, because they have had pay freezes or have lost some benefits, the retail sector id sufferring which has a knock on effect in the wholesale and manufacturing sectors and so we stay in recetion. This is not helped by those who still have some disposable income choosing to save their pennies because "that rainy day" can't be far away.
14:11 on 23/11/2012
If we introducewd a severe austerity programme for all politicians, civil servant and bankers unti the crisis was over, it would save billions and get sorted a lot quicker.
14:07 on 23/11/2012
Fiscal adjustment works best when countries combine spending cuts with tax rises. Romania and the Baltic countries have lead the way in Europe in this respect, with good results. In Romania, the cuts and structural reforms implemented in 2009-2011 have reduced the budget deficit from 8% to 2% of GDP.

However this has caused a deep level of resent amongst the affected population. As a result, populist parties have gained ground while the reformists are suffering.

Europe as a whole is now experiencing the same risks. Politicians should be careful to use a good mix of spending cuts and long term structural reforms.
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12:31 on 23/11/2012
Of course the Prime Minister of Romania wants more spending. His country receives a large amount of money from the EU. What he means is the 10 contributing members of the EU should send ever increasing hand-outs to the 17 beneficiary countries, including his…
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
GavinSaunders
Bollox.
12:11 on 23/11/2012
Sounds like a less hysterical response.
10:22 on 23/11/2012
The writer of this article is known as a plagiator in Romania and around the world. In Romania he is called "dottore" because it has been established he plagiated his doctoral work.
" My name is Paste... Copy Paste" is the title of an article about him in the prestigious newspaper " The Economist"
I thinck Huffington Post should choose more carefully it's contributors, even if they are, by accident, Prime Ministers
13:31 on 23/11/2012
Plagiator? I'm not sure that word exists. Plagiarizer maybe. I find it awfully amusing that you would quote The Economist, a pretty high-end English using outfit, and completely miss your syntax use. It's just...GRAND :)
14:55 on 23/11/2012
You are right. But please adress my comment not my syntax in a language wich is not my mother tongue.
19:40 on 23/11/2012
Whether the allegations about his plagiarism are true or not, what is factual is that Mr. Ponta has the support of 60% of the population heading into the upcoming elections so you lose some credibility when you call him an accidental Prime Minister.

How about posting something related to the opinion expressed in this article on a topic of great importance for Europe, instead of cheap ad hominems.