Sometimes, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. I seem to be one of the only people who has noticed that amid the biggest financial crisis in a generation, parliament has just insouciantly waved through £350 million on some drawings of some new submarines. Maybe I'm being unfair - maybe there will also be scale models to sit on an admiral's desk too, maybe even a Troy Tempest uniform for Nick Clegg to dress up in - but it still seems like a hell of a lot of money.
Of course, this £350 million quid is just a down-payment - the start of the whole bloated nightmare of the hooting defence procurement panjandrum. Now that we've paid out £350 million quid on sci-fi submarine drawings, any attempt to now withdraw from this commitment will be met with a round chorus of boos and hisses about wasted money.
There is almost literally no political debate on this issue, which I find astounding. I mean, I understand why, in narrow, party political terms.
Ed Miliband has to burnish his manly credentials and appear "tough on defence" - particularly vital in a Labour leader who you can't imagine doing anything other than begging for his life if left alone in a room with Vladimir Putin. Cameron, on the other hand, can't cut a button or bayonet or a badge from the military without fear of a ferocious coup from the crusty neo-UKIP wing of the Tory right, most of whom would not be out of place as the villain in a Sharpe novel.
In the coalition agreement, the Libdems *promised* to look into alternatives to Trident, but - and here's a shock - they broke their solemn promise and they let the £350 million on new nuclear missile submarines sail through, with nary an earmark for any other sort of plausible alternative.
Still, this is a big deal - we are not only putting a truly vast sum of money at stake - the defence contractors estimate £25 billion, so we can assume at least three times that, 10 years late - we are also binding ourselves into a strategic commitment to maintaining not just a nuclear arsenal, but to a uniquely cold-war era one, based around submarine launched ballistic missiles.
The question someone in parliament - be they a pinko, dope-smoking commie-coddling lefty pacifist, or an austerity loving, state-hating, swivel eyed right winger - should be asking is "Would Britain in the mid-21st century become a significantly less safe place if we possessed different, cheaper nuclear weapons?"
Even if you leave aside the moral arguments around nuclear weapons - and I'm sure BAE Systems Submarine Solutions, unlikely to rebrand any time as Ocean Going Holocaust Delivery Mechanism Manufacturers Inc any time soon - would like us to, there are compelling practical arguments for a different kind of weapons system. A real public argument around what form our should take deterrent, or indeed, whether we should have one at all, and about defence generally, is badly needed.
If you look around, and ask the forbidden question, "what are the plausible threats to Britain?", the Trident system becomes increasingly suspect.
Does it stop Terrorism? Do nuclear weapons deter that? Where are we going to fire a Trident in retaliation for a terrorist attack? Mecca? Belfast? Bradford?
Is it a deterrent to rising powers like China or Russia? If Britain were to stand alone in a showdown with nukes on the table, it would be doomed. The UK's security against big power aggression must depend on our alliance with the USA. It's hard to swallow but sadly true - and in any case, the trident system is totally reliant on US technology, expertise and support, so any idea it is an "independent deterrent" is sadly flawed.
Of course, there is a real threat that could be deterred from rogue states like Iran or France. But we must ask ourselves the question, is a ballistic missile system the best answer for that? There is an important distinction between retaining a some nuclear weapons and none at all.
Are cheaper nuclear cruise missiles fired from cheaper, multirole attack submarines any less deterring? Are they less deterring if the missile is fired from a ship? From a plane? From a really big cannon?
I'd conclude that they are slightly less deterring, but only slightly - there is a slim chance of shooting down a cruise missile, or destroying an aircraft before it launches one. But it ignores the reality that there could be tens or hundreds coming through - it's not a chance I'd bet on, when losing the bet is a whole city and hundreds of thousands of people burned to ashes. It's a gamble someone would only take if they probably wouldn't be deterred by our ballistic missiles anyway.
The arguments deployed for keeping Trident, rather than some other system, are often weak, even laughable. Notably, some worry about trifles like the international legality of cruise missiles - as though a bomb that incinerates hundreds of thousands is fine so long as it drops vertically rather than horizontally. Among those who want to keep Trident, probably the most cited, but least convincing, is what is known in the as the "big willy" argument.
This argues that Britain's influence - our permanent UN security council seat, our trade links, our ability to have David Cameron cheering for Chelsea in the White House situation room - would be in jeopardy if we began dismantling some of our nuclear weapons. This is tragic, 1950s, post-imperial thinking. National security is vital - but having a massive willy to wave in the faces of other leaders is not.
That's not to say there aren't some convincing reasons to have a like-for-like replacement - I just wish we would have those discussions openly, unfettered by weak-kneed short-term political calculations. What we really need is real debate on the topic - personally, I'm sure we can be just as safe if Mr. Cameron decides he can cope with a little circumcision.
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Do we need a nuclear deterrent, is a hard question to answer, its individual, but someone has to make a move and I believe we should disarm our nuclear abilities and focus on our potential to deal with low level conflict.
Submarines can be sensed from orbit.
Millions wanted open discussion on the health service changes, on the cuts. They understand the government decides. But there was no discussion. Your bosses make decisions based on ideology - not the interests of the country.
I agree it is a complete waste of money (unnecessary and disproportionate), it undermines any argument for nuclear non-proliferation/de-commissioning, and it is morally repugnant kill millions of innocent civilians over any perceived threat and even if you think it is an important deterrent just LIE... yeah of course we have nuclear submarines (I'll show you mine if you show me yours!).
And if it all goes wrong... who wants to live in the post apocalyptic radioactive world anyway!
2) We would have to design, build and maintain the warheads independently, maing it a much riskier and more expensive proposition than would at first appear.
3) There is no reason why the cost of a like-for-like Trident replacement programme should escalate as you suggest. The risks are relatively low as the submarines will be based on the Astute class and the missiles will be refurbished in the US.
4) £20 billion actually represents good value. We are spending ~£15 billion on two new aircraft carriers and a few F35B jets which will have at best a limited power projection capability. These offer relatively poor value for money.
5) We have no way of knowing how the geo-strategic situation will alter over the next 30 years. It's not a question of deterring terrorists, it is a matter of safeguarding our national security in an uncertain and volatile world.
6) The argument re. reliance on the US is a red herring. The missiles are not code-locked and could be used independently if required. Manual firing is regularly rehearsed, although I cannot conceive of a scenario where this would be necessary. The IND is actually less reliant on US support than our conventional forces are!
In more logical terms, this should come down to cost-benefit analysis. For this cost (£25billion bare minimum) I want to see some pretty amazing benefits. I see many more benefits coming from infrastructure or healthcare projects than I do from Trident.
The writer assumes he is capable of anticipating all possible futures. Is it worth pointing out that he is probably mistaken?
Suppose this happens: The super-volcano that is Yellowstone erupts, as it has done many times in the past, covering the whole of the USA's grain producing farmland in 6 feet of ash and triggering most of the USA into a bizarre post-apocalyptic civil war with the sides determined not by location but by degree of religious berserkness. "The end of days!!!!" and all that malarkey. With three guns for every American alive today, America becomes a very unstable and dangerous place to live, even if you are young, fit and healthy and have a fortress home with a good stock of tinned food in it. America's best scientists flee with their families to Britain and Europe, China, anywhere. Without America, geo-politics becomes a roiling cauldron of utter uncertainty.
Having a seriously big stick in those circumstances would seem to me to be a pretty good idea.
Look at the enormous changes that have been wrought on geo-politics as the result of a gaggle of religious dim-wits flying some planes into a building. Even quite small events can rock the boat to a worrisome degree.
Yellowstone could happen tomorrow. The future is a very uncertain place. Assuming you understand its parameters is foolish.
I think you miss the point that there is a huge difference between a Britain with no nuclear weapons and a Britain with different nuclear weapons.
Equally, yes, there was an element of chicanery in the title; but as it's a polemic intended to make reading about defence policy palatable to a general audience, I hope I can be forgiven my metaphorical bikini clad headline.
Circumcision in not an apt metaphor, and one suspects the author understands this perfectly well. It is, perhaps, a rhetorical device used in the hope that more people will read the article, a trick similar in sophistication to having a bikini clad cutie show off your firm's latest design for central heating boilers. It may well work at that level, but at the same time it hamstrings the argument by making it trite.
It's not as if I'm recommending our ballistic nuclear weapons be replaced with a cannon emplaced at Margate that shoots jets of hot organic marmalade, combined with a stern leaflet campaign.
And my goodness, as a euro sceptic the idea of an "EU defence strategy" is a worrying one:)
I suppose your argument that a nuclear sub with cruise missiles is harder to detect - is because it is smaller? Do we have any Admirals in the house? Comments please.
Thought provoking.
Your straw men of alternatives have been eliminated for good reasons. Not least because their through-life costs are higher. You can't just bolt a nuclear warhead onto our existing TLAMs, even before considering whether they're fit-for-purpose.
http://www.mod.uk/NR/rdonlyres/AC00DD79-76D6-4FE3-91A1-6A56B03C092F/0/DefenceWhitePaper2006_Cm6994.pdf
considers alternative options; and this:
http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4C4EBAB3454FD/
is a more detailed rejection of cruise missiles. The idea that Trident isn't independent is also pretty comprehensively rebuffed here:
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmselect/cmdfence/986/986.pdf
and here:
http://www.basicint.org/sites/default/files/evidence_submitted_by_bernard_jenkin_mp.pdf
So fun, but misleading, straw men aside, isn't this really two questions?
A) is there a future threat that may be deterred (who's pretending nukes have anything to do with terrorism)?
B) what kind of role does the UK want in the world?
Both of these are legitimate debates. But it's a pretty punchy claim to be confident *enough* to chuck away the insurance policy. The nuclear deterrent has a 15 year + lead-time to re-constitute -that's a long way out to be confident nothing will change.
The latter question, though, is perhaps the really interesting one...
In a recent report for CentreForum, Toby Fenwick argues that we should scrap Trident now and become a nuclear threshold state, with a lead-in of 12-18months with the skills and facilities which we would maintain.
Even a more pessimistic assumption is nothing like 15+ years. At a seminar I attended on this recently, Ian Forber, Head of Defence & Counter-Terrorism at the Cabinet Office, said he thought it could be 5-6 years.
Here are some good pieces from RUSI's Research Director and Director (UK Defence Policy) Prof. Malcolm Chalmers on Trident replacement crippling conventional defence forces.
http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:N4C4ED70C3F1F7/
http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:N4E8182FD73716/
Chalmers also discusses how the £74 bn "black hole" in the MoD budget will further jeopardised by large spending projects like Trident which will inevitably be delivered over-budget & late.
Answers:
A) No. No foreseeable threat which isn't covered by the US nuclear umbrella. Retain skills and technology, become a nuclear threshold state if you're so terrified by ambiguous future threats, though most of the world seem to get along ok without nuclear weapons. They certainly don't eviscerate their public spending just to have them.
B) Hopefully not one where we withhold the right to obliterate whole cities and hundreds of thousands of civilians just for peace of mind. We're not tolerating that from Iran. Why should we tolerate it for ourselves?
And don't underestimate the cost of high end engineering, it generally does cost that much! Particularly if the customer keeps changing the spec parkway through...