Tomorrow in the House of Commons, David Cameron will face down some of his biggest adversaries - his own party.
After travelling to Brussells for crunch talks on solving the Euro crisis, the prime minister will return to a UK where up to 60 MPs have been threatening to defy calls to vote against a referendum on EU membership.
Conservative MPs have been whipped into a frenzy over Europe and attempts to force them to vote against Monday’s motion have been received with threats of mutiny and government resignations.
Whips have been reported as warning of a four-year ban on ministerial appointments, and overheard telling MPs “this isn’t a f**king sixth form debate”.
Stewart Jackson, ministerial aide to Northern Ireland secretary Owen Paterson has already said he could quit over the vote, telling the BBC it is a “question of putting country and constituency first”.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats have also whipped their backbenchers to vote against the motion.
One person who says he is “delighted” by the whole affair is UKIP leader Nigel Farage. He says it will be a “miracle” if the motion goes through - but one thing he won’t be surprised by is if the vote results in his party gaining supporters. “Disenchantment amongst traditional Conservative voters, with a prime minister who clearly is many things but one thing he is not is a Conservative, is running at such levels that I wouldn't be surprised if we get more people coming to UKIP.”
Mark Seddon of the People's Pledge, a cross-party campaign group which is calling for a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU, says attempts by all three parties to force their MPs to vote against a referendum are “Kafka-esque”: “If I hear another politician in Westminster banging on about democracy in Tahrir Square, I think I’ll start counting the spoons.”
The reason we need a referendum, according the People’s Pledge? “There's quite a strong feeling out there that things are happening very, very quickly in the eurozone and that hugely momentous decisions are being taken behind our backs. 1975 was the last time the public were ever asked about relations with the common market. Eighty-ninety thousand people have signed this pledge, this is a cross party campaign.this isn't another petition although a petition has got us to a vote.
“The political class are so scared they won't allow this happen but the bulk of their supporters want one - 75% of conservatives, 53% of Labour and 51% of Liberal Democrats according to YouGov.”
But why is everyone so angry? And just what is the Conservatives’ problem with the European Union?
For Professor Tim Bale, an expert on the Tory party, it’s about their desire to be “ fleet footed free traders”:
“It's a preoccupation with a lot of conservatives. it was Ted Heath who took us in and Macmillan who first applied to join the EEC. They've gone to being the friends of Europe to being full-on sceptics."
And part of it, as always, comes down to the coalition. Bale says that with a majority Conservative government this rebellion would not happen.
“Because of the deal with the Liberal Democrats some people who might otherwise have expected to be taken into the government have decided for good or bad to make a name for themselves. And the other thing is the boundary review and the whether they're under pressure for constituency parties. Some people are completely convinced that if only the conservatives were to promise an referendum on Europe than that would be incredibly popular with what's admittedly a very Eurospectic public and that's another trump card they could play against Labour.”
It’s important to remember not all Conservatives are anti-EU. Matt Lewis is young chairman of Conservatives in Europe group, which includes Justice Secretary Ken Clarke among its members. He says that the Conservatives’ problem with Europe is “the million dollar question”.
“On paper it doesn't make any sense because on paper the EU is a Tory idea, it's about free markets… in the past the Conservatives were a party of Europe. It's only changed over the last 20 years. As to why the Conservatives get so angry over it, it's hard to say. I think there's a lot of ignorance and misunderstanding of the EUropean Union and what it does.”
Instead Lewis says we should “get stuck in”. “We do have this attitude in the UK that we are alone against the EU. That's not the case, certainly post enlargement more than halve of countries that follow our mindset. We should be utilising those relationships to overcome the Franco-German mindset which is why so many people may have a problem with the EU.”
Professor John Bachtler, the Director of the European Policy Studies Institute at Strathcylde university says Britons are historically more sceptical about the European Union than any other nation, which was originally driven by a political class whose childhood memories were dominated by World War II.
“The whole point of the European Union was to provide a system of economic relationships that would help to avoid future conflicts.”
But now, the EU is a scapegoat: “Politicians in every country have used the EU to blame someone for policies that are seen as unpopular.”
And Professor Bachtler says politicians are just mirroring public opinion: “I think particularly the current political intake, they are closer to the views of the population than I think it has been for a long time. But essentially involvement in Europe and understanding in Europe is still something thing of an elite population. The majority of people have little idea of what the European institutions.”
So, could we leave the EU? It’s “unknown territory”, according to Bachtler: “There would potentially be a very serious unravelling of a lot of areas of economic and political life as much of our regulations has its origins or has been influenced by European legislation. If we wanted to continue benefiting from a single European market, which I think unless we wanted to continue suffering serious economic penalties, we would have to be. Without the European market, we would lose our traction. If you want to serve that market without trade barriers that exist without being in the EU, it's hard. We could be part of the single market without being in the EU but then we'd be subject to laws and legislation over which we have no say in.”