UK Economy: Bank Of England To Hold Interest Rates As Economy Shows Signs Of Recovery

Does The Bank Of England See Growth On The Horizon?

The Bank of England will hold back from prescribing further doses of emergency medicine for the ailing recovery on Wednesday amid signs the economy will return to growth.

The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee will maintain interest rates at record lows of 0.5% and leave the targeted size of its quantitative easing (QE) programme at £375 billion as the Bank works through £50 billion of asset purchases announced in July.

Most economists think the nine-strong panel will sanction further QE in November and hold their nerve on Wednesday, a view reinforced by strong services data released earlier this week.

The move will come shortly after the Bank admitted that QE has increased the fortunes of the wealthiest 5% of Britons while eroding the value of many pension funds.

The Bank of England could hold off raising interest rates

Vicky Redwood, chief economist at Capital Economics, said: "With the £50 billion of extra asset purchases announced in July still under way, there is no immediate pressure on the MPC to do more this month."

The Bank currently expects the rate of inflation - which increased to 2.6% in July - to fall to the Government's 2% target by the end of this year.

Governor Sir Mervyn King and his colleagues will also want more time to assess the impact of the UK's £80 billion "funding for lending" scheme, which was launched in the summer with the aim of unclogging the flow of credit.

Investec Securities economist Victoria Clarke said: "Over the past month the outlook hasn't shifted drastically, but inflation risks do appear to have nudged up.

Governor Sir Mervyn King and his team predict inflation will fall to 2% this year

"Even so we continue to see the committee backing more asset purchases in November when the current target of £375 billion is reached."

The committee has also considered cutting rates below the current level of 0.5% - a move that once seemed improbable - although the Bank continues to favour QE as its economic weapon of choice.

This week's two-day MPC meeting, which concludes tomorrow, is the first for former CBI chief economic adviser Ian McCafferty, who has replaced Adam Posen.

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