Rumours Of Saudi Arabia Turning On Its Oil Taps Leads To Price Drop

Oil Is Getting Cheaper - So Will Petrol Prices Drop?

The price of North Sea oil dropped to $108.19 (£64) in a trader sell-off on Wednesday following rumours that Saudi Arabia is to increase its supply.

Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters earlier this month that prices were too high, amid fears that expensive energy would undermine attempts to boost global economic growth.

A price drop would not only help international markets, it would help the US president's prospect if oil prices eased in time for the 6 November election.

And the US seems "twitchy" about releasing oil from the strategic reserve which could cause a sharp drop in the oil price short term, which the Saudi’s do not want, according to David Scott, senior stockbroker at Redmayne Bentley.

Saudi is now pumping about 10m barrels of oil a day, slightly up from last month, and has said it will do more if customers want it.

For much of 2012, the price of crude oil fell, but prices spiked by almost 20% in the past three months - partly driven by global fears of Iran's nuclear programme and the global reaction to it.

Saudi Arabia is the world's largest OPEC oil producer and as such is aware of the impact high oil prices has on world economic growth..

It's also aware of the potential negative effects on long-term demand, such as people finding other energy sources if the oil price stays high, according to Tony Shepherd of Charles Stanley stockbrokers.

"Last year, when the oil price was driven higher by geopolitical events such as Libya and the Arab spring, Saudi was willing to increase output to try to bring the price down. Again, in 2012, the oil price has been bubbling up which has led to rumours of various actions to bring it back down," Shepherd told the Huffington Post UK.

However a potential decline in the oil price is limited by two factors - Saudi's spending commitments and the marginal cost of oil production.

Redmayne Bentley's Scott explained that when the crude oil price is between $100 to $120, the global economy "can muddle along", but when the price moves above $120 it's painful for the global economy. Once it reaches $140 or more, it's recession time in the West.

However, even if the price of crude oil does drop further, consumers in Britain may not see any effect, at least in the short term.

"Unfortunately the price of oil doesn't correlate exactly with the price of refined products," said Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at trading group GFT.

"For the UK, you have a foreign exchange factor to take into account, while fixed rate taxes also add to the burden. The difference would be limited for consumers, although it would have a downward influence on inflation."

Shepherd agreed, saying current estimates suggest the potential floor price would therefore be around $100 a barrel, meaning it is probably too optimistic to be looking forward to cheaper petrol prices in the future.

Others were more optimistic however; Clive Black, analyst at Shore Capital, said we may see a reduction in petrol prices in four to six weeks, perhaps helped by the Office for Fair Trading investigating the relationship between pump and crude pricing.

"Lower forecourt prices also feeds into consumer price inflation, which helps disposable income and confidence. If this is sustained, the cost of goods and distribution for manufacturers eases," he added.

"It is not just about the crude price in the UK though; oil is trade in US dollars and British sterling has appreciated following Bernanke’s recent quantitative easing comments."

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