The Economist Intelligence Unit has placed Donald Trump winning the US election among its top 10 risks that threaten the globe.
In its monthly forecast published on Wednesday, the EIU explained its decision by noting Trump's hostility to China and Mexico, which could spark a trade war. It also cited his “militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East” as a “recruitment tool for Jihadi groups.”
Although the intelligence group said the eventual Democratic nominee would likely defeat Trump, a “terrorist attack on US soil or a sudden economic downturn” could see the rambunctious businessman propelled to the Oval Office.
The EIU also warned of Trump's negative effect on domestic US politics:
It is worth noting that the innate hostility within the Republican hierarchy towards Mr Trump, combined with the inevitable virulent Democratic opposition, will see many of his more radical policies blocked in Congress - albeit such internal bickering will also undermine the coherence of domestic and foreign policymaking.
Other global threats on the list were a fracturing of the EU, Chinese expansionism in the South China Sea and the UK voting to leave the EU.
According to Politico, Trump’s inclusion is the first time a single politician has appeared on the EIU’s risk list.
