Unemployment Keeps Growing. What A Surprise, Said No One Ever.

High unemployment and low economic growth is on trend in SA.
With about 16% of workers jobless for more than a year, long-term unemployment is an area of concern.
With about 16% of workers jobless for more than a year, long-term unemployment is an area of concern.
Skyler Reid/Reuters

Unemployment figures are up again, according to the latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey released by Statistics SA, but that's nothing new. South Africa has been shedding jobs all year and the latest survey shows the unemployment rate has hit 27,1 percent.

The news comes just days after Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa put forward a proposed minimum wage of R3,500 per month, as recommended by a special advisory council set up to investigate the matter. The national treasury later warned the move could result in 715,000 job losses and a 2.1% shrink in the economy.

Speaking to HuffPost SA on Tuesday night, Statistician General Pali Lehohla, described the job market as "severely depressed" right now.

"We've seen that about 16% of people have been out of jobs for more than a year; the long-term unemployment is a serious matter," he said.

Lehohla said the silver lining in the data was the high employment rate among graduates.

"About 92% of the people who have degrees are employed. It means that the economy has an appetite for more graduates," he said. Lehohla said the country's inadequate skills base was one factor holding back growth.

Lehohla would not be drawn on the potential impact of a minimum wage on the economy, saying only that South Africans would have to wait and see. "I can only measure what has happened post the decision," he said.

The Democratic Alliance noted that 712,000 people have lost their jobs since the third quarter last year, what it described as a "jobs bloodbath".

The party's labour spokesperson Ian Ollis said in a statement that the proposed national minimum wage could add to the jobs crisis and is "yet another clear example of how policy decisions are taken without considering the impact on jobless South Africans, stuck in poverty and away from opportunities".

Trade union federation Cosatu, in its statement on the survey, did not refer to the proposed minimum wage but called for a "radical overhaul" of macro-economic policy and for "decisive state intervention in strategic sectors of the economy, including through strategic nationalisation and state ownership".

"We have long argued that the unemployment problem in South Africa will not be addressed if the flawed structure of the South African economy is left intact," it said.

Haroon Bhorat, director of the Development Policy Research Unit at the University of Cape Town, told HuffPo SA, that the high unemployment rate seen in the labour force survey reflects a growth rate that is simply not high enough to absorb workers.

Earlier this year the South African Reserve Bank forecast a 0% growth rate in 2016, and growth of just 1.1% and 1.5% for the next two years.

"The growth rate is as dismal and uninspiring as you can get. That just manifests itself in a labour market that's unable to generate the kind of jobs that you need," said Bhorat.

The jobs figures, he said, were a reminder of the continued wage/employment tradeoff that exists in the economy.

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