Grocery Prices Have Finally Dipped – What Does That Mean For Christmas?

Importantly, what about the mince pies?
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Grocery prices have finally fallen (slightly), but sadly your Christmas dinner still isn’t looking any cheaper.

According to new research from data insights company Kantar, the cost of the traditional Christmas dinner for four people has increased by 9.3% compared to last year, up to £31.

Shoppers will have to spend an additional £60 in December just to buy the same items as last year, too.

But – looking on the bright side – that’s still less than general food bills at the moment.

Groceries overall are 14.6% more expensive than they were 12 months ago (down from 14.7% inflation in October).

This is the first time there’s been any drop at all in price for 21 months, suggesting inflation may finally be easing.

Even so, Kantar has noted that the sale of mince pies and Christmas puddings have fallen year-on-year.

Presumably this is because consumers are cutting down on their seasonal purchases ahead of the official festive periods towards the end of the month.

Interestingly, the football World Cup has not inspired a sudden splurge either.

Take-home beer sales only increased 5% to £230 million – even then Kantar believes this is due to increased prices, rather than a rise in the number of purchases

Discount supermarkets, Aldi and Lidl, have both opened up new stores across the country in the last three months though. An extra 1.5 million households now shop at Aldi compared to 2021.

As head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, Fraser McKevitt, explained: “As we move into the busiest time of the year for supermarkets, there are signs that the pace of grocery price inflation is easing off slightly.”

But, he added that the research shows “just how much rising prices are impacting people at the tills and in their daily lives”.

December is still expected to be the largest ever month for take-home grocery sales as inflation and festive spending kick in.

Supermarkets are set to take more than £12 billion for the first time.

McKevitt added: “We’re seeing yet more evidence of the coping strategies shoppers are adopting to mitigate rising costs, and in particular own-label sales are growing at pace, now up 11.7% year on year.”

He said the cheapest value own-label lines have increased by 46.3% too – but people still want treats around this time of year, triggering the increase in premium own-label sales up by 6.1% to £461 million in November.

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