Questions Raised Yet Again on Ability of Bank of England to Control Inflation

Mervyn is predicting a rapid return to lower inflation in the coming year. As the effects of the VAT increase earlier in 2011 drop out of the numbers in the first quarter of 2012, there will be a marked effect. That we can be sure of.

Another month, another letter for the Governor of the Bank of England to write to the Chancellor.

"Dear George, missed the 2% inflation target yet again. Whoops. All the best, Mervyn."

Of course the Governor's letter is rather more detailed but, with UK interest rates at rock bottom, serious questions remain about the ability of the Bank to control inflation.

And that's a real worry for us as consumers, and for our political masters.

At 5% the UK now has the highest level of inflation of all EU member states - not a particularly happy position for a Chancellor that looks to pride himself on his financial rectitude within the EU, where he goes into battle on an almost daily basis right now.

The Chancellor will look enviously at Sweden with its 1.1% inflation rate - probably why he has also enlisted Sweden's help on the Tobin tax.

Having an EU partner with better inflation credentials is certainly a good thing, with the average rate of inflation for the EU as a whole at 3.4% and a level of 3% for eurozone countries. To be frank, it is surprising Greece is sustaining a level of around 2.9% right now as it looks to recalibrate its entire economy.

But as Sky Economics Editor Ed Conway points out in his blog - it's the 'Misery Index' (adding inflation and unemployment rates) which will be keeping George Osborne awake at night.

With inflation at current levels, basic rate taxpayers would need interest rates of 6.25% simply to maintain the value of their investments. For higher rate taxpayers this rises to 8.33%.

Tell me where such rates are available? If inflation was to remain at 5% - with the base rate at 0.5% - a collective £43bn would be wiped off the value of savings in the coming year.

But of course that won't happen...

Time to go back to Mervyn and George's little notes to one another.

Mervyn is predicting a rapid return to lower inflation in the coming year. As the effects of the VAT increase earlier in 2011 drop out of the numbers in the first quarter of 2012, there will be a marked effect. That we can be sure of.

The Bank is also hoping the steep increases in import and energy prices which have flowed through to domestic utility prices will only be a temporary factor.

Mmmm, I'm less sure about that, especially if Iran's foreign policy intentions go unchecked. It will also take time for the Arab Spring to bear global economic fruit.

Many remain worried about the long-term inflationary impacts of QE. So do I.

But Mervyn does have the economics chateratti to call on. Most have central scenarios which see inflation tumbling in the coming 12 months. Capital Economics expects inflation to drop to 1.5% by the end of 2012. That's the good bit.

It also forecasts a double-dip recession, with three quarters of negative growth: -0.3% in the final quarter of this year, -0.1% in first three months of next year and -0.1% in the following three months. Positive growth is not expected until the final quarter of 2012. The Bank itself is now predicting a very 'flat' first six months of 2012.

All of this is not the best environment for the Chancellor's autumn statement - which is focused on growth - on 29 November.

But the Chancellor is a master tactician. He knows we are close to a 'pivot point' in this parliament, where he only has a few months left for his economic strategy to be seen to be working. He has his main Budget in March. But by the late summer of 2012 voters will be starting to form their view on whether or not the plan is worth the pain.

"Dear Mervyn, I would be obliged if you would stop sending me your letters on inflation. As soon as possible. Yours, George."

Close

What's Hot