A Survation poll of almost 4,000 party members for the LabourList website suggests Long-Bailey, seen as the most left-wing ‘Corbynite’ candidate, would win 42% of votes in the first round and Keir Starmer, viewed as the frontrunner, would receive 37%.
Long-Bailey would then lead 51% to 49% over Starmer once second preferences are factored in, and win the battle.
The survey of LabourList readers was weighted to reflect the party’s membership.
The poll is in stark contrast to a YouGov survey earlier this month that had Starmer comfortably leading the race to take over from Jeremy Corbyn.
That survey of 1,059 members had Starmer out in front in each round under the party’s preferential voting system.
The system knocks out the least popular candidates until one has more than 50%.
The election process was officially launched this week, with the new leader taking over in March following Labour’s worst election performance since 1935.