What a difference a few months and a botched election makes. In January, a super-confident Theresa May was warning darkly that Brussels had better give us a good Brexit deal or face the loss of UK cooperation on security and intelligence. Many saw it as an empty threat and today the PM confirms her retreat in a speech to Russia-facing British troops in Estonia, declaring our âunconditionalâ support for European defence, post-Brexit.
This morning, May also meets a newly-elected Angela Merkel in the margins of the informal EU summit in Tallinn, to press for Brexit trade talks to start soon. Merkel is unlikely to want to undermine the unity of the EU27. But will she be as hardline as Michel Barnier was yesterday? The EUâs Brexit negotiatior rebuffed David Davis to say it could take âmonthsâ to unlock the talks, warning there could be âno possible linkâ between the divorce bill and future trade links. An unconditional shove, indeed.
Government sources have told me they think Barnierâs stance is coloured by his own bid to be the next European Commission President. They may relish my HuffPost France colleaguesâ verdict that Barnier is one of the least successful politicians in recent French history (he âlostâ their own EU referendum donât forget) before sloping off to Brussels.
Meanwhile, a new Times/YouGov poll shows Borisâs recent eruption has paid off, as heâs again favourite among voters to succeed May as Tory leader. In a new no-sugar-Sherlock moment, May admits to The House magazine that the Tory party was not prepared for her snap election. Labourâs Ian Lavery, who is in charge of its own election plans, last night killed the revived talk in Brighton this week of a new EU referendum. âWe will be leaving the EU. No problem,â he told Question Time. âNo second referendum. No second referendum.â So good, he named it twice.
And as the PM meets the German Chancellor this morning, the words of another Question Time guest may set the tone for many. Former Labour adviser Ayesha Hazarika stared down an AfD [the German far right party] sympathiser in the audience: âIn a world full of demented men like Kim Jong Un, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin - these crazy man-babies - Iâm very glad that Angela Merkel is there. In terms of global leadership, she is a moral authority in a very scary world right now.â
Brexit poses âsubstantial threatsâ to NHS staff levels, funding and drug treatment, according to a new study in the respected health journal The Lancet. The research paper warns that âalmost every partâ of the health service, from organ transplants to curbs on tobacco, would be hit hard when the UK quits the EU.
Academics from Oxford University and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine used a WHO model to calculate the impact of âhard Brexitâ, âsoft Brexitâ, and âfailed Brexitâ and found that each would be âprofoundâ. Labour has pounced, with Shadow Health Secretary Jon Ashworth telling us the study underlined the UKâs âchaoticâ approach to Brexit.
Whatâs most eye-catching of course is that this study is in the Lancet. The journal tells me the research was peer-reviewed but stressed it was a policy paper not a scientific study like its other more technical publications. It was also transparent about the fact one of the authors was a big Remainer in the âHealhier Inâ group, and another an ex European Commission official. Tory Eurosceps are sure to claim this study is just a reheat of tenuous evidence and forecasts used in the referendum campaign.
To add to Jeremy Huntâs misery in-tray today, the health think tank the Kingâs Fund reports that the number of NHS beds has fallen by half in 30 years, and plans for further cutbacks are âunrealisticâ and should be stopped. Some bed cuts are due to a desire to treat more elderly in their own homes, but the Kingâs Fund says itâs become an âundesirableâ cost-cutting move, when mounting pressures have left many hospitals âstretched to breaking pointâ.
Jeremy Corbyn correctly identified this week that since the 2008 crash, the âcrisis of capitalismâ is no longer the preserve of Socialist Worker and Morning Star editorials. Every day seems to bring more stories of broken markets, and todayâs FT has a timely piece on how the public mood has swung against Tory privatisations of natural monopolies. Tim Harford points out that âstate-owned enterprises could be well-run when the political will existedâ.
Theresa Mayâs attempt to defend capitalism yesterday was seen as too lame by those in her own party who were dismayed by her previous populist forays against business. And letâs not forget last yearâs party conference speech, where May, high on the advice of her advisors, appeared to attack the Bank of Englandâs QE programme of cheap money. Within days, No.10 had to retreat under pressure from governor Mark Carney and insist the Bank was independent.
Yet even Ed Balls, the brains behind an independent bank in 1997, today renewed on the BBC his call for it to be made more accountable to politicians in the light of the past 10 years. He says the Chancellor should chair an oversight committee of the Bank. And last night Gordon Brown called for a greater role for the Treasury. In a rare return into the limelight, he also revealed publicly for the first time his irritation with then governor Mervyn King during the 07/08 crash. âThe Bank was trying to tell the government what to do about fiscal policy,â Brown said, adding he didnât go public for fear of undermining the Bank.
Carney was on the Today prog this morning saying âwe have a responsibility to identify risks to the economyâ, and âhighlight where there are emerging vulnerabilitiesâ. He added we should âtake seriouslyâ what Balls and Brown were saying. As the FT reports, Carney yesterday lectured the PM that Brexit would lead to cuts in growth and there was little that he and the Bank could do about it. But alarm bells rang when he told Today that âin the relatively near term interest rates would increase somewhatâ. Buckle up, folks, autumnâs coming.
Watch this truly inspiring speech by the US Air Forceâs Lt General Jay Silveria, reacting to racists who posted messages on his cadetsâ Facebook pages: âGet outâ. Boy did he sound Presidential.
For the first time in 20 years, Tory MPs head to their annual conference in the knowledge that just a few weeks later the Chancellor will deliver a Budget (Philip Hammond has reversed Gordon Brownâs switch from Autumn to Spring Budgets). And boy does it show today, with two sets of rebel backbenchers using the Manchester gathering as a pressure point to lobby Hammond on their pet topics.
Former minister John Penrose is leading 76 Tories to demand that Theresa May keep her election manifesto promise to cap energy prices for 17 million people. The PM has since passed the buck to regulator Ofgem, which watered the pledge down. This is a rebellion that has brewed all summer but with Penrose and co joining forces with Labour and the SNP, an amendment to the Budget could be tabled.
With a wafer-thin working majority, Tory whips are braced for such squalls and the Telegraph splashes its front page on another one. Serial rebel Heidi Allen is one of 12 Tories who have written to Work and Pensions Secretary David Gauke demanding a pause in the roll-out of the controversial Universal Credit benefit. The Gauke will be uncorked at our WaughZone Live at the party conference on Sunday lunchtime. Heâll certainly have a progress report to hand.
Pity the poor journalists who have gone straight from Labour conference in Brighton, barely taking a breath to attend the UKIP conference in Torquay today, before embarking on a lengthy cross-country journey to the Tories in Manchester this weekend. The road trip from hell is paved with good hacks (including our Owen Bennett) ready to witness yet another chapter in the chequered history of Nigel Farageâs party.
And thereâs serious business at the Kipper conference today as after teatime we will find out who has won their latest leadership election. Having achieved its main strategic aim of getting us out of the EU, UKIP seems bereft of votes, cash and political direction.
The main rivals for the top spot are âmoderateâ (hey, itâs a relative term) Peter Whittle who wants to focus on Brexit delivery, and the altogether scarier Anne Marie Waters, who wants to focus on anti-Muslim sentiment. Thanks to a first past the post leadership voting system (despite the party opposing it for Westminster), Waters is favourite of the seven contenders. And guess what? She is a former Labour candidate. Farage is threatening to form a new party if she wins, the FT reports.
COMMONS PEOPLE
We have a fun-packed CommonsPeople podcast this week. Hear us chinwag about Corbynâs big speech and the real takeaways from Labourâs week in Brighton. Gwynne v Boris, Skinner v Bennett, Jezzaâs very slick hip-hop video intro, Momentumâs first-come-first-served triumphs and more. Listen on Android HERE and on iTunes HERE.
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