Why The UK's Rwanda Flights May Never Take Off, Despite Today's Court Ruling

No.10 can't guarantee there will be any deportations before the next election.
The grounded Boeing 767 aircraft which had been due to fly asylum seekers from MoD Boscombe Down, near Salisbury, in June.
The grounded Boeing 767 aircraft which had been due to fly asylum seekers from MoD Boscombe Down, near Salisbury, in June.
Andrew Matthews - PA Images via Getty Images

Suella Braverman was understandably jubilant when the High Court ruled this morning that the government’s policy of deporting asylum seekers to Rwanda is lawful.

The home secretary said: “Our ground-breaking migration partnership with Rwanda will provide individuals relocated with support to build new lives there, while disrupting the business model of people-smuggling gangs putting lives at risk through dangerous and illegal small boat crossings.”

“I am committed to making this partnership work — my focus remains on moving ahead with the policy as soon as possible and we stand ready to defend against any further legal challenge,” she added.

But anyone looking forward to the first flights taking off any time soon will be disappointed.

In fact, there is a decent chance that the deportation transports may never actually take place.

For a start, the various human rights groups involved in the High Court case are now weighing up whether or not to appeal the ruling, potentially delaying any take-offs for months.

It’s also important to remember that this morning’s ruling was not the slam-dunk for the government that it first appeared.

While the overall policy of sending asylum seekers on a one-way ticket from the UK to Rwanda has been deemed legal, the High Court judges also ruled the government had acted wrongly in the cases of eight immigrants they unsuccessfully tried to deport in June.

That means that more legal challenges to individual deportations are all-but inevitable, further delaying any Rwanda-bound flights.

Asked this morning whether he could say that flights to Rwanda will begin in 2023, the prime minister’s official spokesperson said: “I can’t put a timeline on it.

“A lot will depend on whether there is further legal action. We want to go as quickly as possible.”

And asked whether he could at least guarantee that the first flights will take off before the next election — which may be more than two years away — he replied: “I’m not going to do that while there is the prospect of further legal action.”

Responding to the High Court ruling, shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper made clear Labour’s opposition to the policy, which she said was “unworkable, unethical and extortionately expensive”.

“The Conservatives have let criminal gangs take hold in the Channel, while their own asylum decision making has collapsed,” she said.

Labour have proposed serious policies to target the gangs and clear the backlog. Instead of spending millions on Rwanda, the government should put that money into pursuing the criminals who are organising these dangerous boats.”

With the opinion polls currently suggesting that Labour is on course to form the next government, there is a strong possibility that the Rwanda policy could be scrapped entirely before anyone is actually deported.

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