The US has killed Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda's second-in-command, but the Arab Spring has killed Al-Qaeda as a Jihadist movement.
The killing of Atiyah Abd al-Rahman, Al -Qaeda's second-in-command by a CIA controlled drone in Pakistan on August 22nd is another major blow to al-Qaeda's infrastructure and prestige. This is a significant development coming some three and a half months after a Navy Seals team killed Bin Laden on May 2nd.
Bin Laden's successor Ayman Zawahiri was recently appointed as the new Commander of the global jihadist network Al-Qaeda. He announced that his violent campaign against the West and the secular Arab regimes would continue. Despite this threat, I don't believe Al-Qaeda is capable of carrying out major operations in Western Europe, USA and the Middle East.
The Egyptian born Ayman al-Zawahiri whose star had risen in recent years makes up for his lack of charisma by being more vocal and ruthless than Osama Bin Laden himself. Zawahiri has called for the overthrow of Pakistan for betraying the Jihadist movement by collaborating with the USA.
I believe that Zawahiri is damaged goods. He cannot fill the vacant position of Bin Laden, he does not inspire and his TV appearances are boring non-events. However, it is safe to say that after the demise of Bin Laden, Al-Qaeda is weakened but not completely finished.
However we cannot underestimate the achievement of President Barack Obama in killing Osama Bin Laden. A significant quantity of documents, tapes and computer discs and other materials were seized. It is true that the extermination of Bin Laden was a major blow to Al-Qaeda it was not the coup de grace that most people hoped for. It took the USA the best part of ten years to track, corner Bin Laden and kill him. A great deal of pains-taking intelligence work and the so-called "enhanced interrogation techniques" had helped in locating Bin Laden's exact whereabouts inside Pakistan.
Al-Qaeda committed murders not just in USA but in Arab and Muslim Countries as well. The first recorded incident attributed to al-Qaeda was in Yemen in 1992 when a hotel housing US troops in Aden was targeted and as it happened a small number of Austrian tourists were killed. A year later in New York a young extremist Ramzi Yousef drove a van loaded with explosives in the garage of the World Trade Centre killing 6 people. In 1993 Bin Laden was blamed for providing training and arms to Somali fighters who shot down two American helicopters killing more than 20 US soldiers.
In 1997 Bin Laden financed the massacre of 58 foreign tourists in Luxor Egypt followed in 1998 by the attacks against the US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania which killed over 200 and injured many more. In 2000 the American Navy destroyer USS Cole was hit by rockets and damaged off the Yemeni coast, but the most spectacular attack did not happen until September 11th 2001 when hijacked passenger planes slammed the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon killing 3000 innocent people. This act resulted in the invasion of Afghanistan and the pursuit of Bin Laden had begun.
But this was not the end as the series of atrocities continued unabated. The resort of Bali was hit in 2002 killing over 200 tourists followed by the attack on Madrid commuter trains in 2004 and July 7th 2005 attacks in London killing 52 people. This was not all, three Amman Jordan hotels were targeted and dozens were killed in the autumn of 2005 and the latest outrage happened in Morocco in April 2011 and some 15 people mainly tourists were killed. Despite denial by al-Qaeda the operation bore all the hallmarks of the organization.
Bin Laden's built his reputation by being fiercely anti American and anti the Christian West. His most important aim was getting America out of the Middle East. But the 9/11 attacks backfired and brought more Americans to the Middle East. American influence in the region had actually increased. An objective dispassionate analysis would lead to the conclusion that Bin Laden was an idiot lacking in vision and strategy that caused severe damage to Muslim and Arab causes. It is a known fact that Bin Laden ended up killing more Muslims than anyone else. More Iraqis were killed by al-Qaeda inspired violence than by the military invasion in 2003.
The irrelevance of al-Qaeda
Many people in the Arab World believe that the Arab Spring had killed Bin Laden politically and as an icon. Not a single demonstrator in Cairo, Tunis, Sanaa, Tripoli or Damascus shouted Pro-Bin Laden slogans. American and Israeli flags were not burnt. Most people in the Middle East thought the demise of Osama Bin Laden was long overdue. To most Muslims al-Qaeda has brought ruin to the Muslim World.
More and more Muslims were turning away from Al-Qaeda. Recent events in the Middle East have confirmed the growing irrelevance of Bin Laden and al-Qaeda.
Zawahiri and Bin Laden were in for a shock when the Arab Street erupted in Tunisia and Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Syria. None of the young people carried placards calling for jihad or support for al-Qaeda. None of the placards showed Bin Laden's face.
Al-Qaeda has lost the ability to mount a spectacular act of terrorism similar to 9/11. It is much weaker now. It is strapped for cash and many adherents have walked away.
We might see a number of isolated revenge attacks by al-Qaeda operatives in Europe and USA. Despite the disappearance of Bin Laden from the scene, and the recent killing of Atiyah Abd al-Rahman, the franchise operation with its decentralized structure has not disappeared. Morales may have fallen, but these guys will reassert themselves somehow to tell the world "we are still relevant and don't write us off".
Many in the Arab World consider Bin Laden as an ignorant conman who had done more damage to Muslim and Islam than any other person or organization. Only a minority in the Middle East care for him. Arab dictators exploited Bin laden's murderous attacks to cling to power. He helped to bring disaster to Iraq. One of the excuses for the invasion of Iraq was according to Blair and Bush the war on terror. Then followed the vicious campaign against Iraqi civilians which caused the death and maiming of tens of thousands of Iraqi non-combatants. He was offering hatred and violence. Arab support for Bin Laden melted away. The Arab Spring has killed al-Qaeda is a Jihadist movement.