It is irrational to take at face value the reassurance that these systems are safe and reliable today. It is even more so that they will remain so into the future. If our government is to take these risks, which are unavoidable when deploying these systems, it has to be far more honest about those risks and more open with those affected by them.
We can close our eyes to these probabilities now, safe in the knowledge that a 1980s-style polarised debate between unilateralists and multilateralists can only benefit the Conservative Party. But those with any genuine concern for the national security of this country must look beyond such tempting gains and see the underlying threats before we face far more painful choices later in the programme.
Trident isn't about defending the country from attack, it's about trying to perpetuate the delusion that the UK is still a major player in the world. It's there to keep the United Kingdom at the top table of the UN Security Council and enjoy the kudos that goes with it. It is a political and military ego-trip that is being paid for by every taxpayer in the country.
Trident has not stopped terrorism and it never will. Investing in our police forces, in early detection in tracking people who declare terrorist intents on social media is what will help resolve these threats.
As parties and voters head away from nuclear weapons, it is hard to see how the Tory government can legitimately proceed with its plans to replace Trident. As today's results reaffirm, Scotland has categorically and repeatedly voted against it and as host country to the Trident submarines that has to be a major factor in any replacement decision.
Emily Thornberry's review appears to be open-minded. That is at least what she is claiming, and the evidence from her recent media interviews and the direct conversations I have had with her lead me to believe it. She is suffering a relentless attack on her character and intelligence on the basis that she has no place in questioning the assertions of invulnerability of our systems. But this is doing disservice, to her, but far more importantly, to the issue facing us as a nation.
Renewing Trident will not de facto keep us safe. Conversely, it risks sacrificing the naval power that tomorrow's security risks demand. True patriotism involves engaging with the way the world is, not playing old war games with taxpayers' billions.
Trident is in the news again, and will continue to generate heat in the run up to a parliamentary debate promised later this year on the programme and patrolling posture. But the outcome is clear, pre-determined in the minds of the political elite and to some extent in contractual and diplomatic commitments.
Jeremy Corbyn’s hopes of changing Labour policy to dump Trident look set to be defeated by trade unions whose members rely
As it is, the official policy of Labour is to support the renewal. So again, Corbyn could be forced to rebel against his own party. Not that he is unused to that, but rebelling as leader? That would be something special. If he tries to force his Shadow Cabinet to vote against renewal, or even backs a free vote, people will walk. The blocks will fall. Corbyn will be left with a very small Jenga tower indeed...