Currently being knocked off the Euro front pages by the Greek economic fiasco, is a possible game changer of enormous proportions. Will Israel attack Iran's nuclear plants with more than just computer software?
Up until now it's been a poker game that Iran has been playing very well, refusing to be bluffed down in the face of Israeli threats and American intimidation.
But now, as the International Atomic Energy Agency is about to release a report claiming Iran has long been trying to develop atomic weapons, the case for a preemptive strike, such as Israel once carried out against Iraq, will be stronger.
But for argument's sake let's say Israel doesn't attack Iran.... which it probably wouldn't do without American backing up front.
Iran then will most certainly develop a nuclear weapon. In fact, it could be argued the military and economic threats against it offer Iran justification to have such weapons.
Here's what I think will happen. Iran, like Israel, will deny having the bomb. Why make it official? Better to keep the world guessing. Just the thought of an Iranian bomb will create in the Middle East what the US had for more than 40 years with Russia... Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD), a sort of fantasy nuclear standoff between powers who may or may not have nuclear weapons.
Yet, this is very dangerous game to play, and one that a nation such as Iran, run by devout theocrats, feels it can afford. Wealthy democracies will think long and hard before taking military action that may mean counter attacks against them. But dictatorships with less to lose who feel they can raise the status of their homeland may not have such reservations.
The big goal of Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been to replace Saudi Arabia as the Middle East's main player, which will be quite a task since Iran is a non Arabic Shiite Muslim nation, while most of the Arab world is Sunni Muslim. But, having the bomb maybe a big persuader.
However, there could be a spanner in the Iranian gears, and its called Turkey, a powerful country far more developed and with a stronger economy than anyone in the region except Israel.
Until recently Turkey has been looking westward towards the European Union. But, now it has rediscovered its Islamic glory and past Ottoman Empire. Even though the Turks have remained cordial to Iran, the Iranian imperial ambitions will not be welcomed in Ankara.
I repeat, Iran will not admit to having nuclear weapons. But, the threat will still be there as will the nuclear standoff. And barring fanatical action, that's with what we may have to live. And its also a reason Turkey has allowed US missile batteries on it soil.
Possibly the best way to deal with Iran's denials will be to simply ignore it by accepting their claims. I mean there's no point in playing the bluff game if no one believes you. This might force Iran to own up to their bomb. But, using it would be another thing, one that could be a gateway to armageddon. Such stakes may be too high for the major powers to play.
The main lesson the world learned from the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident was that even a relatively small radioactive discharge could cause a disaster over a wide area. And this lesson has been taken in by the Arab world, which fears Iran's atomic ambition.
It knows if Iran, or anyone else for that matter, attacked Israel with nuclear weapons, bordering states such as Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and especially the Palestinians could be destroyed as well. Shock waves and atomic radiation know no borders.
You might say, the Arab-Israeli conflict could be settled in one blow, with the suffering survivors envying the dead.
We can only hope Iran realises this, too. And we can also hope if and when they get the bomb, their maniacal leadership doesn't adopt the standard terrorist logic of accepting collateral damage for their idea of the greater good.
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Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Sunni Arabs who live around the gulf, however, might not feel as protected as the Israelis do. My point is that this doesn't stop here, everyone will want a nuke. Adding nuclear weaponry to the already volatile gulf region can't be a good idea. Nonetheless, get ready, because that is what is going to happen.
A regime who's primary objective is staying in power will not sign its own death certificate by initiating a first strike. But it will defend the hell out of itself with all the people who hate the very same islamic regime behind it. It's called nationalism. Just ask the Iranian Arabs who faught Iraq's army. Many of the Persian Gulf Arab countries helped sadam. Kuwait sure learned its lesson.
Sanctions and threats have strengthened and turned this regime into a criminal organization, who mainly wants to survive.
No sanctions, no war, let the middle class develop and the people will gain some power to get rid of the regime.
Wahhabism is a religious movement[1] or a branch[2] of Islam. It was developed by an 18th century Muslim theologian (Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab) (1703–1792) from Najd, Saudi Arabia. Ibn Abdul Al-Wahhab advocated purging Islam of what he considered to be impurities and innovations. Wahhabism is the dominant form of Islam in Saudi Arabia. It has developed considerable influence in the Muslim world in part through Saudi funding of mosques, schools and social programs.
Second my piece downplayed the Iranian threat on the basis of rational leadership. I don't this is this is the US line, which fears Iran may actually use any bomb it makes. America loves to play up threats to keep the population distracted and ready for another involvement.
It would be hard to deny Iran's imperial ambitions which hinge upon removing all opposition. If had read the piece its says that....www,hard-truths.blogspot.com
If ISrael - no stranger to so called "preemptive" attacks starts killing Iranians will we side with Iran and drive the invader out? Will ISrael merit ANY punishment for its clandestine nuclear program and its campaign of violence througout the mideast?
No. WE will proudly stand behind Israels violence and Israels secret nukes. Why? Simply put: they are not "brown" people, and we as a society, are completely racist.
Iran have said; they don't want a nuclear bomb! At least those "maniacal leadership" don't lie as oppose to some other heads of state which are screaming for another war, like they going to get their dinghies back!
First of all Saudi Arabia is one of few dictatorships/US puppets in ME that are still standing and as such cannot be a leader in ME.
Second, Saudi regime is Wahhabi regime not a Sunni one. The Wahhabi cult was created by Britain to destroy Islam from within and most Muslims know this. Westerners just kept their heads into the sand pretending that Muslims do not know the true nature on Saud's regime.
Is this another Arab street conspiracy theory?