Growth Forecasts Revised Down, Osborne Under Increasing Pressure

Osborne Economy Plan B

The Huffington Post UK   First Posted: 16/10/11 22:05 Updated: 17/10/11 00:03

George Osborne is coming under increasing pressure to spell out his plans to grow Britain's economy, after another influential think-tank predicted extremely sluggish growth in the UK next year.

A report by the Centre for Economic and Business Research has predicted that UK growth will amount to just 0.7% in 2012. This is less than half the amount predicted by a separate report on growth from Ernst & Young's Item Club, which is projecting growth next year of 1.5%.

The CEBR blames the ongoing crisis in the Eurozone for its downward revision for growth prospects, warning that a bank crisis similar to those seen in 2008 is on the cards.

"A Lehmans-style financial crisis in the Eurozone now looks highly likely – triggered by the unsustainable nature of the single currency area in its current form and the failure of European politicians to take decisive action to calm the markets or make the necessary pro-growth reforms at a fast enough rate," the report concludes.

Douglas McWilliams, one of the report’s authors and chief executive of CEBR, accused the previous government of poor fiscal management, but said this gave George Osborne little move for manoeuvre.

“The Government is between a rock and a hard place," he said. "It is left hoping desperately that the Far Eastern economies and falling commodity prices can fuel a world recovery, and that the European economy does not collapse as it deals with its currency and debt crises.

"In normal circumstances I would call for a fiscal boost – but Gordon Brown spent the money that could have been used for a fiscal boost at a time when the economy didn’t need it.”

The CEBR believes the Chancellor will find it difficult to rethink his austerity agenda, partly because it would be "very damaging politically" but also because the markets would be spooked by any change from the current strategy.

The report claims: "This means the onus lies with the Bank of England to prop up growth and prevent a double dip recession over the coming quarters. Interest rates now look set to remain on hold until mid-2013 and more quantitative easing (beyond the £75 billion announced this month) is almost certainly on the cards."

At the weekend The Sunday Times previewed a report by the Ernst & Young Item Club, which revises down its overall predictions for growth in 2011, and Labour seized on a leader article in The New York Times, which described the coalition's austerity agenda as "self-inflicted misery".

The NYT said: "Austerity is a political ideology masquerading as an economic policy. It rests on a myth, impervious to facts, that portrays all government spending as wasteful and harmful, and unnecessary to the recovery. The real world is a lot more complicated. America has no need to repeat Mr. Cameron’s failed experiment."

Rachel Reeves MP, Labour's shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, said: “Rather than waiting six weeks until his autumn statement, George Osborne should have an emergency budget for jobs and growth now. If he does so we will back him, because with every day of inaction that passes living standards are squeezed harder."

The Ernst & Young report predicts growth of only 0.9% this year, down from an earlier projection of 1.5%. It looks to growth in 2012 amounting to 1.5%, higher than the predictions being made by the CEBR.

The Item Club agrees that George Osborne has little room for manoeuvre, but its report does offer some recommendations.

“To help buffer the UK from strengthening headwinds from the Eurozone, the Chancellor needs to look to the tax system and measures that still remain within his control," concludes the Item Club's report. "The housing market is an important driver of the construction industry and consumer spending. Cutting stamp duty, particularly for first time buyers would, in our view, be money well spent."

The Bank of England's recent decision to increase quantitative easing will come under scrutiny this week when monthly inflation figures are published on Tuesday. Exactly how the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee voted on interest rates and QE will be revealed in its minutes, published on Wednesday.

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George Osborne is coming under increasing pressure to spell out his plans to grow Britain's economy, after another influential think-tank predicted extremely sluggish growth in the UK next year. A...
George Osborne is coming under increasing pressure to spell out his plans to grow Britain's economy, after another influential think-tank predicted extremely sluggish growth in the UK next year. A...
 
 
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22:48 on 18/10/2011
Maybe with the close media ties they can just keep printing articles that everything is OK.

If they say it often enough and long enough some people will believe it.

The close ties of the media, police, politicians and the wealthy must end.
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12:58 on 17/10/2011
with all the so called brains on the economy and how to get out of the mire, why are things in such a mee? woh do we blame the money markets ,Osbourne or the so called experts. Please tell the truth someone, we (public) are not stupid so stop treating us like so.
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Lawyer13
retired Lawyer, General and Psychiatric Nurse, wit
10:13 on 17/10/2011
Anyone with only half a brain could have predicted this. When will anyone learn you can not get out of debt by borrowing more money.
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Tim Haselden
An Enemy of Rupert Murdoch, since 1984.
10:13 on 17/10/2011
The Market is not run by supply & demand, it's run on perceptions. It's a chaotic system, Benoit Mandelbrot created some of the first choatic financial models to emulate not simulate the market, and even he said that "only a fool would claim to be able to predict the market with certainty for anything longer than a few minutes".
As long as fear dominates the markets, there won't be any growth. But for the fear to go, you have to have trust. And after the bailouts, the bonuses, the sheer thieving that the investment elite carried out blatantly, trust will be a long time returning. If ever.
07:13 on 17/10/2011
98 of the top earning FTSE 100 companies skirt around the bothersome issue of corporation tax, by renting offices in Jersey. Instead of taxing these billion pound multinational, companies, the govt instead triples UNI fees, closes hospitals, libraries, cuts off funding to charities and raises our taxes... Funny that...
http://www.grandedame.co.uk/2011/10/16/if-i-have-to-pay-business-tax-why-dont-ftse-100-companies/
01:02 on 17/10/2011
conservatives are not 'dumb'. Dismantling social services is a long held, orgasmic inducing goal of theirs and, if it can be achieved by massively bailing out their donor chums from school, it's: "Hallelujah! i'm a coming".
Mass unemployment also helps the poor (and yes, that includes the 'middle class') get used to the idea of SE Asian working conditions, for when the 'investment class' are given the nod to break out their war chests, in readiness for the next round of piracy and looting.
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Chris Burgess
George Bush. The Worst President Ever!
00:30 on 17/10/2011
Isn't it amazing. Conservative governments all over the world. In bigger numbers than ever. All using the same economic recipe and its NOT working anywhere. They are all going backwards in a hurry. Yet no one can work it out. Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.
00:29 on 17/10/2011
Boy George's Self-Inflicted Massacre of the British Economy. Eton flys the flag again for arrogance, ignorance and incompetence.
23:42 on 16/10/2011
So trickle down Reaganomics doesn't work. Who would have thought it.
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Merseysidefella
I read the news today oh, boy
23:20 on 16/10/2011
The UK has adopted the American BS economic model: financial speculation and number shuffling on a piece of paper, and look at the results in the US: a Walmart and Kentucky Fried Chicken economy.
The UK should adopt instead the German model, with an emphasis on real economy and manufacturing.
22:19 on 16/10/2011
When the media, police, politicians and the wealthy are all seen as in bed together nothing good can come from it.

People have lost faith in the institutions due to the lack of ethics and corruption.
21:52 on 16/10/2011
Would the said respected "think-tanks" kindly keep their opinions to themselves and allow the economy to get on quite well without their help!

It is amazing that neither think- tanks nor economists have predicted where we are today.

Makes me wonder if the think-tanks may be doing this for short selling deals which they can make money from...
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Miserable Swine
21:54 on 16/10/2011
Your thoughts may well have merit. It`s like the `investment seminars` where the only people who make any profit are the ones running it.
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Valksy
civis mundi sum
22:44 on 16/10/2011
Honestly, I had to wonder the same. Not that long ago, the markets were wetting their pants and sinking below 5000, when I last looked, they were gaining again (and anyone with liquid cash could have made a quick buck for doing nothing, all it takes is cash in pocket and the market freaking out).

Someone is making out like a damned bandit and it isn't the people of the United Kingdom.