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Climate Change: World Reaches Point Of No Return In Five Years, Say Scientists

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The Huffington Post UK   First Posted: 09/11/11 16:16 GMT Updated: 09/01/12 10:12 GMT

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The world is on the brink of irreversible climate change, according to a report released on Wednesday by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Called the World Energy Outlook 2011, the analysis is the most thorough ever produced on the effects of releasing fossil fuels into the atmosphere.

According to the research, in five years global warming will hit a point of no return after which it will be impossible to reverse the process.

The report warns that the global economy is building a raft of energy-inefficient factories and power stations that will pump carbon into the air for decades to come.

And without a rapid change to this infrastructure within the next five years, the climate will continue to heat up, regardless of what measures are taken to combat it.

"We are going in the wrong direction in terms of climate change," Fatih Birol, chief economist at the IEA, told the Associated Press ahead of the report's official release.

Scientist believe that the globe must stay below 2C of warming, with emissions not exceeding 450 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide.

"After 2017, we will lose the chance to limit the temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius," said Birol.

The planet is already dangerously close to the carbon emissions limit (80%), which will be past within five years if current trends continue.

The report said that current reduction plans would lead to an increase of more than 3.5 degrees Celsius, which would prove "catastrophic".

Recent figures released by the US Department Of Energy suggest that the level of carbon dioxide being pumped into the atmosphere has reached record levels.

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The world is on the brink of irreversible climate change, according to a report released on Wednesday by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Called the World Energy Outlook 2011, the analysi...
The world is on the brink of irreversible climate change, according to a report released on Wednesday by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Called the World Energy Outlook 2011, the analysi...
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HP-reader
7 Fans
08:12 AM on 11/22/2011
RE: 'Let's agree that nothing will change in five years'
- Can you prove this claim?
BTW how did you come to this figure of five (and not for example five years and three months or four years and eleven months and a half)?
Have you any interests in talking this 'to the population'? Do you care more about your financial assets on the stock exchange than the future perspectives of your children and grandchildren?
And what does 'nothing' mean? Things are happening all the time. The deserts are creeping towards your doorway and it doesn't matter what you may talk or write online and offline they will reach you ... unless the flood or the tycoon come first.
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bilaton
never be afraid of the truth
225 Fans
05:21 PM on 11/21/2011
Let's agree that nothing will change in five years, so get on with your lives and quit listening to the global warming pimps. There is a motive to their claims. It is not to make your life better, just more under control.
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HP-reader
7 Fans
03:07 PM on 11/20/2011
The concept of this globalization is totally wrong from the very beginning.
IMV the first thing that should have been done before boosting the production of cars and steam power plants, and before devising Modern Money Mechanics and doing so giving the money in the hands of the most inappropriate people on the earth, a solution of the energy problem should have been made.
We have 7 bln that are going to consume X kW.h of energy per period - where will this energy come from (without destroying the environment, incl. arable land for food).
It's not too late yet to start solving the energy problem, but it is much more difficult (to convince the speculators at the stock exchange that the money they 'have earned' does not even exist in the physical world). If only 1/10 of the population on the earth draws its bank deposits the whole financial system will collapse like a cardboard box.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Gottlieb
hated by left since 1973 and right since 1982
2542 Fans
 
06:46 AM on 11/20/2011
I see a day coming when desperate people will shut down fossil fuel burning power plants after they are personally devastated by a continuous series of extreme climate disasters. It will be dangerous to drive an internal combustion vehicle. Usually well fed people will go hungry from crop failures and riot. Only the 1% will be able to afford to move to the least impacted areas. I just don't see this ending well if business as usual continues. We are going to see a mass extinction of over 25% of all earth's species and the carrying capacity of the earth will force a involuntary reduction humanity's population. Of course this will not happen to me is the usual thought.
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Cayce58
312 Fans
06:24 PM on 11/20/2011
cover blurb from a 60's sci fi I read.....and the sheep looked up , and were not fed.
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banana republican
Next in line for crumbs from the King's Table
736 Fans
01:29 PM on 11/19/2011
Not to muddy the (ever-rising) water, but,

There has historically been much more CO2 in our atmosphere than exists today. For example, during the Jurassic Period (200 mya), average CO2 concentrations were about 1800 ppm or about 4.8 times higher than today. The highest concentrations of CO2 during all of the Paleozoic Era occurred during the Cambrian Period, nearly 7000 ppm -- about 19 times higher than today.

The Carboniferous Period and the Ordovician Period were the only geological periods during the Paleozoic Era when global temperatures were as low as they are today. To the consternation of global warming proponents, the Late Ordovician Period was also an Ice Age while at the same time CO2 concentrations then were nearly 12 times higher than today-- 4400 ppm. According to greenhouse theory, Earth should have been exceedingly hot. Instead, global temperatures were no warmer than today. Clearly, other factors besides atmospheric carbon influence earth temperatures and global warming.
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Cayce58
312 Fans
06:20 PM on 11/20/2011
Clearly they do and they are all factored in. Manmade particulates cooling and the increase in the sun's heat are both 10%, effectively adding up to zero. I find it amazing that you trust scientific data from millions of years ago but will not trust an 80,000 or 400 year ice core. That you trust science if it agrees with your position but deny it when it doesn't. Besides, the other factors are the reason then, the sun was cooler and still, most of the ordovcian was hot.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jeromettaylor
The Aliens were here 1st!
749 Fans
 
09:27 PM on 11/18/2011
The International Energy Agency in collaboration with the National Weather Service
have released a new, updated 100 year global forecast:
Warmer temperatures with sunshine and colder temperatures with snow and ice
immediately followed by more of the same.
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wyocarl93
0 Fans
06:23 PM on 11/17/2011
People need to make a significant change in their lives in order to fix this. But what will it take to make them change?
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wyocarl93
0 Fans
06:22 PM on 11/17/2011
People need to make a change in their lives in order to fix this. But what could make so many people change? A disaster perhaps?
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Cayce58
312 Fans
12:18 AM on 11/17/2011
Feedback mechanisms. Water on melting arctic ice reflects light back into the ice. Ocean absorbs more light than the ice that is melting in the arctic. Melting premafrost emits methane. The 9 billion tons of carbon in permafrost can be turned into CO2 by bacteria. At 3 degrees warming, computer studies by 7 groups in 3 ountries got the same result, bacteria will produce more CO2 in the earths soil from the 9 gigatons of carbon there than plant life can turn back. We go to 6 degrees warming. No one knows what happens when the oceans methyl hydrate releases. That might take it to 10 degrees.
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maninal2
Without knowledge action is useless
1284 Fans
08:24 PM on 11/22/2011
"No one knows what happens when the oceans methyl hydrate releases."

It's called a dirt nap
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HP-reader
7 Fans
09:54 AM on 11/16/2011
RE: 'Reducing CO2 in the atmosphere is amazingly simple...'
It is hardly that amazingly simple, but maybe it is possible.
In the Amazon jungle there are vegetation species dating back to the Jurassic (if not to the Cambrian) - ferns or something.
If they managed to process 7000 ppm of CO2 in the past, maybe they would be able to save the Earth again.
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heian120
224 Fans
07:25 PM on 11/16/2011
its NOT possible now. with China and India alone increasing output faster than the rest of the world could ever cut back.....
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HP-reader
7 Fans
07:52 AM on 11/17/2011
Just a second. Who invented the fake financial system that stimulates people from all over the world to waste resources of any kind at a max.
Before fixing whatsoever in the climate maybe some people should consider fixing the financial system (by demolishing its five parasitic floors to ground zero, for example).
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heian120
224 Fans
06:42 PM on 11/17/2011
not a clue what you are talking about. our financial system works fine when we keep government out of, for example, the housing market......

and China is not wasting anything - they are trying to catch up with the developed world as they dump Communism in the trash can - where it belongs
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volcanoman83
4 Fans
04:05 AM on 11/16/2011
Reducing CO2 in the atmosphere is amazingly simple... do it the same way they did during the Industrial Revolution.. with the cannabis plant!!! The cannabis sativa plant can use up to 1500 ppm of CO2 which is 5 times the current naturally occuring atmospheric levels (~370 ppm). This means that cannabis is a gigantic carbon sink. If we use hemp for energy, building material, paper and most plastic applications then we can stop cutting down trees which clean the atmosphere and produce oxygen, while making America and its allies energy independent by creating jobs here with new hemp farms and the surrounding industry and infrastructure (power plants, processing facilities, etc.) We can export this new truly green technology around the world and save the planet while putting people around the world back to work.
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heian120
224 Fans
02:37 AM on 11/16/2011
the usual nonsense. How accurate have the gloom and doom predictions been to date?

Not good at all....

and its moot since reducing world CO2 output even a little much less drastically is literally impossible.....
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18pctofgdp
Edit your micro-bio
90 Fans
08:56 PM on 11/14/2011
Ohh Noooo Mr. Bill!
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heian120
224 Fans
02:36 AM on 11/16/2011
good one......
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
alteredstory
Hold on to the center
918 Fans
12:57 PM on 11/14/2011
We crossed that tipping point a decade ago.

If we work hard, and are very, very lucky, we might prevent 10 degrees warming.
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heian120
224 Fans
02:38 AM on 11/16/2011
Bull - based on what sir?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
alteredstory
Hold on to the center
918 Fans
02:54 AM on 11/16/2011
The notion of a tipping point comes from the presence of numerous feedback loops - releases of greenhouse gas triggered by warming.

I'll go over a couple, and why I think they've already been triggered, but it'll take a couple responses - sorry for the long answer, but it's a lon question.

The first, and most obvious, is melting ice all over the world. Less ice means less reflection, which means more energy is absorbed from the sun by the planet.

The next is the permafrost in the arctic circle. The permafrost contains a vast amount of carbon in the form of frozen peat, and as it thaws, it releases CO2, and more importantly methane which is known to be around 25x more effective as a GHG as CO2.

(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1liqk9UQNAQ)

That video also talks about methane clathrates, but those are not, as far as we know, very unstable at the moment, so we can leave it out of the analysis. (to be continued)
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
alteredstory
Hold on to the center
918 Fans
03:10 AM on 11/16/2011
Ok, so methane, water vapor. I guess I should touch on the other thing mentioned in the methane video - the ocean can only take up so much CO2, and as water warms, it pulls in less of it. Add to that the possibility that photosynthetic plankton, which also pull in a VAST amount of CO2, may be dying off (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=phytoplankton-population), and that reduces the amount of CO2 pulled out of the atmosphere even MORE. That study, by the way, is not 100% conclusive, so if you really want to, you can ignore it.

The one that's harder to ignore, is the drought in the Amazon in 2010. As we keep being reminded, plants LIKE CO2, but they can't use it of they don't have water, and droughts are more common when things are warmer. The drought in 2010 was so severe that the Amazon rainforest, one of the world's largest carbon sinks, EMITTED more carbon that it took in. This is the second time that's happened in recorded history, the other being in 2005. While this is not something we can expect every year, it is telling that it's happened twice in five years.

http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/08/207462/science-amazon-drought-co2-emissions-source-sink-simon-lewis/

Less carbon being pulled out of the atmosphere means more piles up, which means more warming, which means less is pulled out.
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Bullitt08
219 Fans
04:41 PM on 11/16/2011
I wouldn't mind warmer winters. Summer is hot enough already though.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
alteredstory
Hold on to the center
918 Fans
05:18 PM on 11/16/2011
Can't have it both ways. Warmer winters means a worse drought/flood cycle, since we have less of a controlled melt-off from accumulated snow.

Also means worse snowstorms for a few decades, and a side bonus of more diseases, eventually.

On the plus side, when malaria reaches DC, we might actually make some progress on prevention.
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eaarth2
“An era ends when its illusions are exhausted
540 Fans
11:22 AM on 11/14/2011
5 years left? Seems we are already 'too late'. in 5 years the problems of extreme weather (storms- freak precipitation events) heat waves, droughts, fires, will be worse.

'Locked in' to 450ppm C02 is in the words of Dr. James Hansen 'A Prescription for Disaster'.

An ice free arctic in late summer by 2015- many say this is now a possibility- by the early 2020's the lower Great Olains and SE US will begin to revert to a permanent dust bowl.

The IEA is being conservative in its outlook- but is issuing a stern warning. The Atmosphere cannot continue to be used as a dump for carbon.
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ajernet
2 Fans
01:02 PM on 11/14/2011
Satellites provide accurate measurement of the polar sea-ice extent, changes in the Arctic are balanced by opposite trends in the Antarctic. The net anomaly after 30 years of measurement is essentially 'Zero'. Satellite sea-ice surveys of both N & S poles over the past 30 years indicate no change whatsoever i.e. although sea-ice in the Northern region decreased a little in 2007, sea-ice increased by virtually the same amount in the Antarctic. References: The National Snow & Ice Data Centre. Coming onto your threats of worldwide destruction caused by extreme weather and the place of CO2 plays in them. CO2 in the atmosphere has actually increased by 20% over the past 20 years but has not had the effect you describe. In fact the weather has just followed its normal pattern and although you can be forgiven for believing the opposite due to the sensationalising of every occurrence by 24 hour news, in fact the incident's of extreme weather has actually decreased confounding the people who produce computerised forecasting models. References: William Happer Physicist in testimony to a US Senate committee, Dr. Pieter Tans 'A Revised Model of Atmospheric CO2 over Phanerozoic Time'.

I know none of the above will make any difference to your opinion or should I say 'belief' in the religious sense but at least you will have had the option to read some of the facts.
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eaarth2
“An era ends when its illusions are exhausted
540 Fans
09:22 PM on 11/14/2011
what have have said does not jibe with the facts and observations from the NSIDC

you seem to be following the religion of those who believe our planet is infinite in taking toxins into the water and atmosphere.
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heian120
224 Fans
02:40 AM on 11/16/2011
good points.

Remember when the idiots predicted more hurricanes - and we got far less. its BS plane and simple.

Fanned
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