Climate Change: World Can Cut Emissions Before Tipping Point, Says UN

Carbon

First Posted: 23/11/11 16:54 GMT Updated: 23/11/11 17:02 GMT   PA

It is "technically and economically feasible" to cut emissions by 2020 to levels that put the world on track to keep global warming below 2C, a UN report has said.

But "time is short" to bridge the gap between the scale of greenhouse gas reductions promised by countries and what is needed to effectively tackle climate change, the UN's top climate official said as the report was published.

The United Nations Environment Programme (Unep) report said changes to energy supplies would be key to keeping the world on track to reduce emissions enough to stop rises of more than 2C above pre-industrial levels - widely seen as the threshold for avoiding "dangerous" climate change.

It follows a Unep study last year which revealed the gap between what countries had pledged under the Copenhagen Accord, drawn up at the UN climate talks in the Danish capital in 2009, and the cuts needed to keep temperature rises to 2C.

Last year's report found that the most ambitious level of pledges would deliver just under 60% of the cuts in emissions needed by 2020, with five billion tonnes (gigatonnes) in extra reductions required.

Unep said the latest report showed that under the most optimistic scenario, a gap of six gigatonnes needed to be bridged. But the study showed it could be achieved with technically feasible measures, under policies which were already being successfully implemented in many countries.

The report outlines how improvements to energy efficiency, including more efficient buildings, a switch from fossil fuels to increasing use of biomass and renewables, technology to capture and permanently store carbon from power stations, more electric vehicles, use of public transport and curbing deforestation could all contribute to reducing the gap.

And aviation and shipping could also contribute through improved fuel efficiency and low-carbon fuels, according to the report which is published ahead of the latest round of UN climate talks in Durban next week.

Keith Allott, head of climate change at WWF-UK, said: "This report should be a big reality check for negotiators heading into the Durban talks. It very clearly shows the world is heading for very dangerous levels of climate change if we don't take decisive action right now."

Energy and Climate Change Secretary Chris Huhne said the report showed there was still a long way to go to keep temperature rises below 2C, but that the goal was not out of reach: "We head to Durban next week with a clear ambition that nothing less than a global deal will be good enough to tackle this problem."

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It is "technically and economically feasible" to cut emissions by 2020 to levels that put the world on track to keep global warming below 2C, a UN report has said. But "time is short" to bridge the...
It is "technically and economically feasible" to cut emissions by 2020 to levels that put the world on track to keep global warming below 2C, a UN report has said. But "time is short" to bridge the...
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03:13 AM on 11/29/2011
Matt Rogers and NASA info on weather and Climate Change http://youtu.be/iYyoKrAKpQ8
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Publicola
Reality has a scientific bias
02:34 AM on 11/26/2011
RAB: "there is still no scientific proof that carbon emissions are contributa­ry to so called 'global warming."

Yawn.

The following are scientific facts:

* The Earth has warmed significantly over recent decades, to what may be the highest level in 2,000 years or more if not far longer.

* Greenhouse gases including anthropogenic CO2 -- which is generated mostly by fossil fuel burning -- warm the Earth. Without greenhouse gases including CO2 the Earth would be below freezing.

* Atmospheric CO2 has increased 40% since the dawn of the fossil fuel era to the highest level in at least 800,000 years if not far longer.

* Increased atmospheric CO2 has been empirically proven via satellite measurements to increase heat energy retention in the atmosphere.

* The scientific evidence indicates that said increase in atmospheric CO2 is due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and there is no other viable scientific explanation for said increase.

* There is a strong correlation between said atmospheric CO2 increase and said recent warming.

* Known natural forcing agents of past global warming - including changes in orbital cycles, increases in solar radiation, and natural increases in atmospheric CO2 - cannot explain said recent warming. Neither has any scientific theory to explain the bulk of said recent warming other than anthropogenic global warming theory survived scientific scrutiny.

Again these are all scientific facts. Which is to say:

The scientific evidence supporting anthropogenic global warming is overwhelming.
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Overtone
See bio on the Aesop Institute website
07:00 PM on 11/25/2011
A mortal threat of multiple meltdowns of nuclear plants, due to a very possible solar megastorm, can greatly accelerate decentralized green energy.

This can supersede arguments about climate change as human life on earth may be at hazard from widespread radioactive fallout.

See the Aesop Institute website for an overview of the threat and ways that the worst might be prevented.

They include rapid production of Black Swans, little known, highly improbable innovations with enormous implications for accelerating reduction in the need for fossil fuels.
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eaarth2
“An era ends when its illusions are exhausted
10:47 AM on 11/25/2011
we have already risen almost 1 degree C since the start of the industrial era- rising another 1 degree by 2030 is going to be swift- and easy. The IEA said we have till 2017 to drastically reduce emissions to see a 2 degree rise from the start of the Industrial era- and 450ppm C02-

AT 450ppm the eventual rise long term in global temperatures is likely to be 3 degrees. After 450ppm- many feedback's will be licking in- making a rise to 500-550ppm C02 a certainty.

There will not be any chance to even beginning to address emissions until 2016 or after- by the mid 2020s the arctic tundra will go from heat sink to releasing methane-

It seems at this point we will not be able to stop at a 2 degree rise- but will see a 3 degree rise by mid century- and 4 degrees is a 50/50 possibility.The 2020s will see us go from the extreme weather events today- to becoming a normal occurrence- with even more chaotic events.
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Reality always bites
Sometimes just a bit peckish
08:26 PM on 11/25/2011
And yet there is still no scientific proof that carbon emissions are contributary to so called 'global warming'. The global temperature has decreased in the past decade. During the last ice age carbon emissions were at the highest!
Never believe anything that is published as a means to increase tax or make the wealthy more rich.
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eaarth2
“An era ends when its illusions are exhausted
08:44 PM on 11/25/2011
sorry

the information you have provided does not coincide with data and records from the NOAA, NASA GISS, The Hadley Climate center, the Japanese Meteorological Agency or the latest BEST Survey.

proof of C02 and global temperatures via the Greenhouse effect go back at least 250 million years.

my advice- before you present me with useless information- get your facts right- or just go away.
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Reality always bites
Sometimes just a bit peckish
08:49 PM on 11/25/2011
You really are a nasty little mixed up person. If you are SOOO concerned about the weather (Because that's what it boils down to) Buy an umberella. But remember to pay purchase tax or VAT whichever applies!
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Joffan
Time is an illusion. Lunchtime doubly so.
11:08 PM on 11/24/2011
I believe that talk of a tipping point has ceased to be productive.

We are going to have significant climate change. We have two urgent actions to take:
1. Limit the degree of climate change by moving as rapidly as the economies of the world can bear towards a radically lower carbon-emission system. Find ways for developing nations to continue to develop without carbon emissions.
2. Investigate all possible means to counter and limits the effects of climate change and ocean acidificaiton.
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12:59 AM on 11/25/2011
You left out the most important point: STOP HAVING BABIES!

At the current rate there will be 8 BILLION people in 2020, so all those fine words and promises aren't worth a fart in a hailstorm. There is one big problem with the world, there are too many people. All the other problems, global warming from fossil fuel use, lack of clean water, famine, drought, plague, floods, whatever, are all caused by or exacerbated by the fact that there are too many people.

What the world need now isn't another commission or cap and trade, it needs addictive birth control pills.
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Joffan
Time is an illusion. Lunchtime doubly so.
04:56 AM on 11/25/2011
I certainly agree that the population issue needs serious consideration.

Short of draconian state intervention, historically the path to low birth rates has been increased wealth, access to education for women, and availability of birth control. That's why continued development is important.
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MikeWebster
Always happy.
06:42 AM on 11/25/2011
I believe the tipping point, or points, is/are very important to keep in mind. The point about reducing the amount of CO2 caused warming, is so that we don't hit tipping points that will take global warming onto a severe trajectory that is completely out of our control, and irreversible.

The tipping points are the things that really contain the risk for extinction of the human species.
09:33 PM on 11/24/2011
The reasoning is just too lunatic. The IPCC now admits most climate change is out of our control, so how is cutting back human production of a trace gas that is only present in parts per million going to stop the Sun from doing its thing?
In the weeks leading up to a climate conference, Big Climate likes to flood the media with scare stories about all the bad things that will happen to Gaia if the world’s leaders fail to fund more climate science act on emissions.
Big Climate has been playing the same game for years, and every year is the last chance to save the planet from a harmless trace gas essential to life on Earth. Durban is this year’s last chance, in 2009 it was Copenhagen, 2008 was Poland, in 2007 Bali, and in 2006 Nairobi.
BlackbirdHighway
Brawndo's got electrolites!
04:35 AM on 11/25/2011
Science is all about experiments. I suggest you try taking a fish tank full clean, clear water and add 100 ppm of black ink. You will find that it turns the tank from clear to opaque. Once you see that for yourself then you can stop posting this nonsense about how CO2 is only measured in ppm and so it can't have any effect. It only takes a few ppm of an opaque substance to make a transparent substance no longer transparent.

But please, don't take my word for it, try this experiment yourself.
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MikeWebster
Always happy.
06:43 AM on 11/25/2011
It's called physics. You should try and learn some.
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12:00 PM on 11/24/2011
There are less than 10 years left until human caused Climate Change becomes irreversible, according to the UN.

"A senior environmental official at the United Nations...says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed.....Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of "eco-refugees", threatening political chaos...governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control...."

Link

http://tinyurl.com/6x8r9yc
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MikeWebster
Always happy.
06:47 AM on 11/25/2011
And the majority think we are too late already. You probably notice that they are now suggesting extreme and drastic action, because action has been left so late.

So, the above paragraph is still true, given that there is almost zero chance that the suggested drastic action will be taken.

If we'd started with greater action back in 2000, at which time the need for action was already demonstrated beyond reasonable doubt, we might have been in better shape to prevent irreversible GW by then. Unfortunately for us, a whole army of propagandists such as yourself, have colluded with ignorant politicians, in preventing action.

Nations will be destroyed, including America. I just wish you would be around when it happens to accept the thanks of the few survivors.
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Marchmont
09:42 AM on 11/24/2011
With the global-warming jolly about to open in Durban, the CRU whistle-blower released a second tranche of Climategate emails just as tawdry and demeaning as the first. Few outside the ranks of professional physicists consider they are able to adjudicate but most people are capable of recognizing when an investigative procedure is flawed. It is clear the IPCC assessment process has so many serious material defects as to put into grave doubt the soundness and reliability of any of its heavily promoted claims. Like so much of the UN, the IPCC is irredeemably corrupt and a new assessment body is needed made up scientists rather than green zealots, political placemen and celebrities.
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Joffan
Time is an illusion. Lunchtime doubly so.
11:03 PM on 11/24/2011
The e-mails just show the normal back-and-foth of a working scientific comunity. Mining them for quotes to take out of context is the mark of how threadbare the case against climate change is.

"Give me six lines written by the most honest man, and I will find something there to hang him." - Cardinal Richelieu c.1630
04:23 AM on 11/24/2011
exactly what number is the tipping point? could it be 400ppm?
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Joffan
Time is an illusion. Lunchtime doubly so.
11:10 PM on 11/24/2011
380ppm. Well, it's as good a guess as any other, and it reflects the reality that the climate would continue to change - probably significantly - if we had held the CO2 at that level.

As it is, we're still throwing dynamite into the boiler. An even bigger bang is expected.
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MikeWebster
Always happy.
06:50 AM on 11/25/2011
Noone knows. 450ppm is generally though to be the point of no return - I think.
02:31 AM on 11/24/2011
Our addiction to fossil fuels has to end. We have to find new ways to live if we are going to survive. It will be painful but has to be done.
BlackbirdHighway
Brawndo's got electrolites!
04:41 AM on 11/25/2011
It is not nearly as painful as you think.
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minimemo
Can I be your friend...if they let me out...
10:26 PM on 11/23/2011
Hope they are planning on starting with China, Brazil and India - all three have the worst pollution levels in the world - but as global warming is an unfounded fear-mongering method of more taxation - who cares.
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Katmandu01
11:17 PM on 11/23/2011
Do you have any science to back up that silly claim?...No?...I thought as much.
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minimemo
Can I be your friend...if they let me out...
09:16 AM on 11/24/2011
I don't need science, I need 'scientific proof' and we haven't got that either so my claim is no more silly than those officials on the government pay-roles, except they can use it to justify taking money from you. It has been proved however that there is absolutely nothing happening to our climate that hasn't already happened in a cyclical repetition for hundreds of thousands of years, long before man arrived. If you cast your mind back, it used to be called global warming but then it was changed in the UK to 'climate change' because their figures were rubbish. That has still not changed. Best way to know if it is real...submit an alternative working method, like give everyone a day off once a month where no cars/vans/lorries/trains/planes etc travel at all. ~Now that would work in cutting down any emissions but it would never be approved as it isn't a method of getting more money.
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MikeWebster
Always happy.
06:52 AM on 11/25/2011
That's a lie. China has just pipped America on emissions recently, and given it's population is 4 times higher than the US, it's obvious that America is a four times worse as a polluter.

Brazil and India don't come close to America.
06:49 PM on 11/23/2011
Thanks wish13. Do please look at SPPI and let me know what you think. I am travism40@aol.com
05:48 PM on 11/23/2011
Global warming is a financial scam. There has only been part of one degree Celsius rise in the last thirteen years and only one degree rise since the mid fifties. Al Gore is a liar. Check the SPPI website and learn the truth.
06:33 PM on 11/23/2011
@toadel I agree entirely - The UN is another front organisation for those pushing the one world government agenda - this is the usual scare mongering, and another way to leverage money from the average citizen
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Katmandu01
11:16 PM on 11/23/2011
Is that right? I think your foil hat is on a little too tight but maybe it protects you from the black helicopters.
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MikeWebster
Always happy.
07:01 AM on 11/25/2011
That wouldn't be the average American citizen. They don't have any money. The Republicans gave it all to the super rich.
BlackbirdHighway
Brawndo's got electrolites!
01:53 PM on 11/24/2011
The effect is non-reversible so if we wait until after the warming happens it will be far too late to do anything about it. The fact that we are already seeing the warming exactly as predicted is extremely alarming, not reassuring. It means that the predictions of future catastrophic levels are warming are most probably accurate.
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01:01 AM on 11/25/2011
It's already too late. Move to someplace with lots of water, and a nice climate, that is not in a flood plain or the tornado belt. Live long and prosper.