IMF Downgrades Britain's Economic Growth Forecast

Imf Growth

PA/Huffington Post UK   First Posted: 24/01/2012 15:31 Updated: 24/01/2012 19:25

The IMF has slashed its economic growth forecasts for the UK and countries around the world as "intensifying strains" in the eurozone slow global recovery.

The British economy is now expected to grow at a rate of just 0.6% this year, instead of 1.6%, it said, while next year growth will reach 2%.

The development comes as the UK's national debt reached above £1 trillion for the first time. Figures released by the Office for National Statistics on Tuesday showed that debt has risen to £1,003.9bn, or 64.2% of GDP, up from £883bn a year ago.

The IMF warned that global output will expand at 3.25% this year, a downward revision from 4%, as the likes of Italy and Spain see their economies shrink and pull the rest of the single currency bloc into recession.

The UK economy will come under increased focus on 25 January when gross domestic product (GDP) figures are published for the fourth quarter of 2011 - revealing how close the country is to falling into recession.

The IMF said the greatest challenge was putting "an end to the crisis in the euro area by supporting growth" while restoring public finance balance sheets and sustaining economic recovery.

The UK is still expected to outperform Germany and France in 2012, which are expected to grow by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, but will fall behind the US and Japan, which are expected to grow 1.8% and 1.7% apiece.

The significant downward revision to forecasts in the euro comes as the cost of financing sovereign debt surges and eurozone governments try to clamp down on spending, the IMF said.

The biggest risk to the economic outlook is the impact the eurozone crisis will have on bank funding and the downward spiral or "feedback loop" effect that can have.

Elsewhere, austerity measures in Japan and the US - or a lack of - pose a threat to the global outlook in the medium term, the IMF said.

Meanwhile, in a separate report, the IMF said risks to financial stability have increased, despite steps taken by European policymakers to address the issues.

The organisation said further action was needed to restore market confidence, which will require larger "backstops" for countries' financing and a sufficient flow of credit to the economy.

Looking ahead, the IMF said while budget deficits fell "significantly" in 2011, any adjustments this year should be done at a pace that supports growth and employment.

The UK GDP figures released tomorrow by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are expected to show that the economy ground to a halt in the final quarter of 2011.

A fourth quarter contraction was until recently seen as the most likely outcome after warm weather in October and November hit sales of winter clothes and meant people used their central heating less.

But a better December fuelled optimism that the economy may have been flat in the quarter or even scraped meagre growth.

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The IMF has slashed its economic growth forecasts for the UK and countries around the world as "intensifying strains" in the eurozone slow global recovery. The British economy is now expected to gr...
The IMF has slashed its economic growth forecasts for the UK and countries around the world as "intensifying strains" in the eurozone slow global recovery. The British economy is now expected to gr...
 
 
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03:08 on 25/01/2012
Keep telling us how it really is IMF, down to the bone, for we cannot trust our own to do that.
02:12 on 25/01/2012
The Only thing we have to fear is fear itself.... I kinda agree with this. Unfortunately our political leaders don't have the guts to actually act outside of their ideological boxes. At least Gordon Brown had the courage to nationalise the banks before the economy broke down. Nationalisation was support by both Cameron and the LibDems.. NATIONALISATION the very thing Thatcherite ideology crushed. In America we saw a Nationalisation programme with hundreds of billions being borrowed by government. It is not The Free Market which will save the world economy. The State has saved the banks now it is required to protect the people from financial exploitation by big business and the markets. It can only do this by increasing it's stake in the those areas such as the power sector where the illusion of a free market hides gross exploitation of prices.
07:05 on 25/01/2012
Fear itself indeed. Work hard, work hard, work harder & get paid less & less & less. In the meantime Fuel costs rise & rise & the supermarkets rip us off time & again.
Blame the last Labour Government ? No ! Blame the banks ! Irresponsible lending at both personal & international levels, fleecing both individuals & countries.
As one who did not take thier kind offer to borrow what I cannot afford to repay I feel aggrieved to pick up the tab for their profligacy. Fear ? I am frightened stiff.... & getting poorer by the day.
13:18 on 25/01/2012
I agree
07:57 on 25/01/2012
The banks in the UK have not been nationalised, just given a lot of taxpayers money with no apparent control by HMG and no real time repayment.
Where on earth do you get your information from?
08:05 on 25/01/2012
RBS is 80% ownned by taxpayers Northen rock was owned by the state until they sold The profitable part to the friend of the government Branson at a gigantic loss to the taxpayer.
22:43 on 24/01/2012
Invade Iran/Syria and the Arab states. Rob all the're wealth, gold/Silver,dollars/ dimonds, etc. A lot of Saddam's wealth went to Syria= help the recovery of the US and the UK.
07:59 on 25/01/2012
After WW2 an awful lot of British money was paid the US, in fact the payments have only recently finished.
Trust the US to make a penny where it can, to the detriment of its 'friends'.
22:14 on 24/01/2012
When leaders have eyes but cannot see, have ears but cannot hear, more mess is inevitable.
22:12 on 24/01/2012
We are over crowded not by physical space but a more serious over crowding where the population is too big to support economically and socially. That’s the stage we are approaching now. Limited jobs and public services stretched to the limit. Large amounts of wealth being sucked up by a small amount of people leaving scant amounts for an ever growing majority who more and more rely on government, not just those out of work but those in work as well, I cannot understand how companies can make record profits and its directors massive bonuses but its employees have to claim working tax credits to make ends meet. Give a lot of people a decent wage and they will buy a car each give it all to one and they might buy a couple. Capitalism of today fails to create wealth for the majority with most kept by the top twenty per cent its no wonder the economies around the western world are shrinking and poverty and unemployment is rising, uncontrolled greed is destroying capitalism it needs restraining now.
And yes before anyone comments the benefits system needs sorting but this cannot be done while the system we live under is putting more and more out of work and even people in employment claiming benefits to make end meet.
08:00 on 25/01/2012
Obviously you are not part of the 1%.
11:49 on 25/01/2012
The figure 1% gives it away very very few of us are you need to have a fortune in the billions to belong to that club and its a pretty closed shop as well
21:32 on 24/01/2012
With all the red tape coming out of the EU it is a wonder we get any growth at all.
A Scotsman signed the Lisbon treaty - with no referendum of the English.
We need to leave the EU and give the Scots their independance - both of these unions cost too much money to English taxpayers.
21:22 on 24/01/2012
Truth is theirs far to many people living on this planet now. I reckon the world is gearing up for war and it might start in Iran.
23:40 on 24/01/2012
I think you mean "with" or "caused by", civil war in Iran would stop those despots in their tracks
21:01 on 24/01/2012
It's no wonder wer'e in the state we are "WE KEEP GIVING OUR MONEY TO ALL THE OTHER COUNTRIES"
20:55 on 24/01/2012
Please note the IMF is a free market organisation which has a history of being wildly OPTAMISTIC in its predictions about growth in free market economies so the real outlook is in all probability much worse.
20:50 on 24/01/2012
Ballons inflate and if inflated enough they go BANG
20:44 on 24/01/2012
Time for HMG to stop borrowing then really.
If you cannot afford it, do not buy it.
It would help OUR nation, if we stopped giving 'aid' to others, we cannot afford it.
20:31 on 24/01/2012
Hardly a revelation, the UK, eurozone, and USA are all in an economic nose dive
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20:00 on 24/01/2012
Any economy is built on the growth of that country and the system of achieving such growth. The United Kingdom relies like so many other westernised countries on spending money on goods and services. These goods and services are provided at a price with emphasis based on profit and not quality or how useful. But we do not supply useful goods and services that have longevity but we look to make a quick buck and get out into another more lucrative business, this becomes our economy of growth.

It places the people in debt as they have to borrow more to support their buying of so much worthless throwaway possessions and our politicians say these words over and over again

" We Need To Stimulate Growth " meaning people are not spending enough and like sheep they are led like lambs to the slaughter and end up with miserable lives making them feel worthless human beings like the possessions they hold so dear, even at the expensive of their family.
20:13 on 24/01/2012
But if we spend on health, on education, on exercise, books, theatre, good food, wine, then that is all right? We do not HAVE to grow an economy by spending on clothes, pop music, hamburgers???????
20:47 on 24/01/2012
What is wrong with living within ones means?
Is 'growth' a good thing?
I have lived in 3rd world countries as a visitor,we have it so easy here in the UK.
See a child starving to death in Burkino Faso and then complain that your tv set is too small.
19:46 on 24/01/2012
The historic average rate of growth of the UK economy since 1945 has been 2% per annum - a forecast of 1.6% in the middle of the largest world wide recesion in 80 years was hugely optomistic in the first place _ I would forecast a half percent this year, one percent next year rising to 2% in 2015 - and if the Euro collapses even these forecasts are highly doubtful - it will take 10 years to get back to the economic growth years of the early 1990's regardless as to who is in Government
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19:41 on 24/01/2012
You mean austerity hampers growth? Whodathunk?