Posted:  |  Updated: 31/07/12 14:17 BST

Should The West Back Syria's Rebels?

As Syria descends into a brutal civil war, with the civilian death toll on the rise and President Bashar al-Assad's security forces and militias accused of war crimes and torture, how much support should the West give to the Syrian rebels?

The members of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), for example, have also been accused of human-rights abuses by both Human Rights Watch and Amnesty. Is there an alternative? Or do Western governments have no choice but to back groups such as the FSA if they want to see the back of Assad?

Below Charles Shoebridge and Shashank Joshi, two of Britain's leading security experts, debate whether or not we should back the rebels.

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The West Should Not Back Syria's Rebels

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Charles Shoebridge Security analyst and former counter terrorism intelligence officer

Follow most mainstream media, and you'll know even from its terminology the situation in Syria is pretty straightforward - on one side a brutal dictatorship killing its own people, on the other a popular rebel army fighting for justice and freedom.

Given this portrayal, and that Bashar al-Assad actually is a dictator, and that the armed insurrection grew from the violent suppression of initially peaceful protest, it's unsurprising that well-meaning, intelligent people have sympathy for the rebels. But in doing so, many have assumed that those who oppose a dictator also therefore support democracy.

Evidence to justify this presumptive mainstream narrative is hard to find. Whilst the opposition includes democrats, many of the West's preferred leaders are of limited relevance inside Syria, having for years lived comfortably abroad. Syria's regional importance and sectarian complexity also render unreliable superficially attractive comparisons to potential democratic outcomes elsewhere.

To some extent, we can use our own senses to assess who those with power on the ground in Syria are. Watch rebel videos, broadcast daily by our media, and consider how often you've heard 'Allahu Akbar' shouting Sunni protesters or fighters make any mention of democracy, tolerance, human or women's rights - or indeed women playing any role at all. The rebels' agenda is to overthrow Assad.

Objective observations on the ground corroborate this assessment. Repeatedly, the UN and others have documented rebel abductions, torture and sectarian murder. Unreported in the UK for example, AFP recently reported how Iraqi soldiers witnessed FSA rebels dismember and murder disarmed Syrian border guards.

Instead of classic guerrilla hit and run, rebel tactics have brought killing and chaos to previously peaceful cities where there haven't been anti Assad uprisings, such as Aleppo. Rebels know that fighting from such densely populated areas inevitably results in heavy weapon use and civilian casualties - just as with any urban combat, such as the US at Fallujah.

Persistent concerns as to rebel activities and affiliations have recently begun to attract mainstream media coverage, including the influence of Islamist militants and al Qaeda, and the widespread persecution of Shia and Christian minorities.

Crucially, we should consider why the most enthusiastic backing for armed rebels on the ground comes from Saudi Arabia and Qatar - dictatorships with no interest whatsoever in promoting human rights and inclusive secular democracy. They do so to promote their own extreme brand of Sunni Islam, and because a crippled, possibly partitioned Syria would isolate and weaken Shia Iran. It is for this cause that the West, in supporting the rebels, has willingly been co-opted.

Democracy and human rights should be encouraged, but if rebels with little care for such concepts succeed in toppling Assad there is substantial risk of Syria collapsing into chaos and sectarian carnage very much worse than now. Whilst this may benefit Saudi Arabia and Israel, it will bring nothing but harm to long term Western interests, and to the Syrian people.

Syria's rebels must be assessed as they are, not as they once were, or as we'd romantically like them to be. And on that basis, we should not be backing them.

Charles Shoebridge is a security analyst and former army and intelligence officer.

Shashank Joshi Research Fellow of the Royal United Services Institute in London, and a doctoral candidate at Harvard University's Department of Government"

Last week, the security analyst Charles Shoebridge claimed that a BBC report "shows Syria rebel fighters bringing chaos, terror, death, and [the] fear of Islamist extremism to Aleppo".

Do the rebels have non-violent alternatives to guerrilla war? No.

Anyone who persists in thinking that peaceful protest is a viable means of change should try holding up an anti-Assad poster around central Damascus (and, let us be clear: regime violence pre-dates the arming of the opposition, it is not a response to it).

Have outsiders hijacked Aleppo? No. Although the majority of fighters are from rural areas around the city, students from Aleppo University have also joined the Free Syrian Army.

Should the rebels have fought on different terrain, to insulate civilians? Yes. But they did exactly that: "We attacked them in rural areas. We tried to avoid fighting close to civilian populations". When rebels were attacked in the suburbs of Damascus, they engaged in tactical withdrawals. Unfortunately, neither peaceful protesters nor armed rebels get to choose the way the regime responds to their tactics.

Is it true that, as Shoebridge writes, despite "crimes on both sides, [the] western media [is] interested only in one side"? Not really. On more than one occasion, the BBC (and other outlets) have prominently covered rebel abuses.

All of us who support Syrian rebels have a particular obligation to highlight and condemn such abuses, rather that pretend that they don't exist, but these are simply not on the scale of regime actions. Rather than write off an entire national movement, we should develop ways to blacklist and punish abusive rebel individuals and units.

Finally, the greatest fallacy is that we face a choice between secular authoritarianism from the Assad regime, and sectarian theocracy from the rebels. It's an interesting sort of secularism that draws on explicitly anti-Sunni sectarian militias to enforce its rule. And, if the cost of preserving this sham secularism is mass violence, then count me out.

As for the rebels, yes, I have consistently noted that we should be concerned about both illiberal Islamist influences and more extreme jihadist ones. But, as counterterrorism expert Brian Fishman observes, "the prevalence of jihadists within the Libyan uprising has often been exaggerated in American commentary". Jihadists cannot benefit from a foreign occupation, as in Iraq.

Moreover, their counterparts in Libya - where the sceptics also issued these dark warnings - were trounced in largely free and fair elections. So was Qatar-backed Islamist commander Abdul Hakim Belhaj, whose party failed to win a single parliamentary seat - so much for the idea that shadowy Arab powers can simply hijack a revolution.

If the presence of abusive rebels and dubious foreign backers was enough to annul the right to rebellion, then virtually every revolution in history would be deemed illegitimate. Large swathes of Syria's opposition are fighting for a state that is more democratic and humane than that which stands today, and - even if they face steep odds - they deserve, at the very least, our qualified support.

Shashank Joshi is Research Fellow of the Royal United Services Institute in London, and a doctoral candidate at Harvard University's Department of Government

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As Syria descends into a brutal civil war, with the civilian death toll on the rise and President Bashar al-Assad's security forces and militias accused of war crimes and torture, how much support sho...
As Syria descends into a brutal civil war, with the civilian death toll on the rise and President Bashar al-Assad's security forces and militias accused of war crimes and torture, how much support sho...
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wom122
Primum non nocere
11:55 PM on 08/01/2012
The West is already backing Syria's rebels.
05:28 PM on 08/01/2012
The rationale for ousting Assad, certainly in the West, seems to be that he is an ally of Iran. So anything to weaken Iran is a good thing?

So what do we know about the rebels and their aims and politics? Personally next to nothing other than whenever I see them in action they are shouting Allah Akbar just like the fanatics the West fears. Remember, the US backed Bin Laden against the Russians and see where that got them.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
YESYOUARE
03:03 PM on 08/01/2012
What's in it for us? Oil, gold, diamonds, arms sales? No?

Nah........don't bother then.
12:32 PM on 08/01/2012
This is totally wrong question to ask, should the West back Syrian rebels. America and West are already supporting Rebels directly or indirectly. At the moment America and West are not openly saying but they are backing up rebels but once US & West declare to help rebels openly there will be more bloodshed. So stop helping directly or indirectly to rebels, Syria will resolve there problem them self and there will be no rebels. Rebels will go back where they have come from with in days.
09:05 AM on 08/01/2012
For the last ten years we have been fighting Al Qaeda. Why now would we start helping them? its absurd. Those people who think we should help them take over Syria need their head examined.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
GingerlyColors
No will to change it, no right to criticize it
07:58 AM on 08/01/2012
I am on the fence with this one. One one hand evil triumphs when good men do nothing, while on the other hand, the road to Hell is paved with good intentions. President Assad has shown himself to be a mass murderer with no respect for human life, much like Saddam Hussein but look at how bad things got in Iraq after we removed Saddam from power and hanged him. In 1953 the CIA foiled a plot to overthrow the Shah of Iran. America's continued backing of the Shah eventually led to the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and a nation resentful of America. If the USA and CIA had stood back and allowed the Shah to be overthrown in 1953, the chances are that a type of regime which is more benevolent than the current one would have taken over. While Iran is generally a united country, Syria and Iraq are both mish-mashes of different religions, sects and cultures carved out of the Ottoman Empire following World War I. The only way forward for those countries is for them to be partitioned up into nation states for each of those groups, be they Kurds, Yizidis, Sunnis, Shia, Druze, Allawite or Christian. It is obvious that these people cannot live together so the only option is for them to live apart.
12:27 AM on 08/01/2012
Of course in all analysis you will have weakness on both sides because the area is so complex. Yet the weakness on the side of Shashank Joshi are glaringly obvious and have been highlighted.

BBC and accountability along with linking "revolution" with nations like Saudi Arabia doing the bidding - then frankly, not based on substance and playing around with the facts. Clearly the FSA is much more sectarian than the government. Same obviously applies to al-Qaeda being sectarian.
12:12 AM on 08/01/2012
Shashank Joshi hinting that safety checks must be put on so-called rebels (terrorists and mercenaries) is frankly alarming.

Like pointed out how many Kosovo Albanians in prison for killing near to 1,000 Serbs since the ending of this conflict? How many Libyans in prison for lynching black Africans and killing other innocents? How many al-Qaeda members in Bosnia in prison for killing Serbs while being on the side of the US? It is not only a naive comment but barely believable that someone would try to "manipulate language" in order to avoid such a serious reality.

Sectarianism and killing refugees is clearly a reality within the FSA, al-Qaeda and other groups in Syria. When people believe that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are interested in human rights - then talking about "a revolution" is near to laughter at such a weak comment.

To try to even paint a picture that the BBC is fair or providing decent information about massacres by the FSA is also not based on reality - on the whole the BBC is clearly in the camp of CNN and Al Jazeera and like mentioned, BBC even used an image of Iraq to blame Syria.
10:55 PM on 07/31/2012
Assad is using artillery and air power to attack his own people. He is probably planning to use chemical warfare.

What in the name of --- is the west waiting for??

Yes, the aftermath will be difficult, yes, the resulting gov't may not be ideal, but can we really sit by while 10's of thousands of people are murdered by their own government?

How can the Assad regime stand now? Even Russia and China are abandoning him

Prior to the mass killings, protestors were already being tortured and killed. Remember little Hamza? The 13 year who dared speak out against the police brutality and was tortured and murdered? There are many more stories.

Assad's regime was not "ok" before and it a monstrous evil now.

The real reason the West hesitates is bigotry against Muslims, people just don't care.

Remember when no one cared that Nazi Germany attacked Czechoslovakia? Or when they occupied and annexed Austria? That worked out well
10:26 PM on 07/31/2012
If the question was...'should the west support any side in this uprising?', then MY answer would be .......definitely...support the government , which mazy not be strictly democratic, but was very stable and seemed to look to the welfare of all the people no matter what religion they practiced.

I have been castigating the British government ever since the rebellion began, in particular our useless FS, Hague.

Had it not been for the support, tacit or practical, given by the likes of Cameron and Hague, it is doubtful the whole scenario would be in the parlous state it is in today over in Syria.

I for one, do not blame Assad for throwing his troops at these murdering thugs who are attempting to steal the country from under him.

There a more than a few who will rue the day Assad departs the scene; they don't all live in Syria either.

The support for the insurgent element is likely to come back to bite us in the rear, seriously, in the future.
08:08 PM on 07/31/2012
The bearded rebels shouting "Allahu agbar" is not the side I have chosen. And I will never support any "democracy movement" if it is funded by KSA and Qatar which deny the same rights for their own people, and - not surprisingly - invaded Bahrain to keep its king in power against the will of Bahraini people.
11:04 PM on 07/31/2012
Why does it matter that they have beards?
Don't look now but your bigotry is showing....
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ehjay
VOTE DEMOCRAT & SAVE AMERICA
07:57 PM on 07/31/2012
Foreign countries have involved themselves in civil wars & insurrections for centuries. The American Revolution would have been lost if France had not aided the American Rebels in a huge way.

America has been clearly and publicly warned by Russia in the Middle East and by China in the region of the South China Sea. America is a financially broken country and should rest and heal itself before engaging in a war.where neither It nor its' interests have been attacked. Since 1921 Syria has been France's interest.

People are in the streets daily, all over Bahrain, and some shot, yet where is the West's concern for their fight for democracy. There is none because America has bases in Bahrain. The propaganda from either side is simply to sway public opinion. To say that the FSA hasn't killed and tortured their own countrymen is to lie. Both sides have done it.
07:28 PM on 07/31/2012
It is abundantly clear that the BBC is biased because it uses "a so-called human rights group" often which is openly anti-Bashar al-Assad.

This comment by Shashank Joshi that "Large swathes of Syria's opposition are fighting for a state that is more democratic and humane." Let me see, a video the other day highlighted a beheading by opposition forces, an individual thrown out of a building and a man being hanged.

Also, many Alawites, Christians, Shia, and Sunni supporters of Bashar al-Assad have fled.
When the FSA entered Damascus they even killed Iraqi and Afghan refugees - these refugees had never been threatened by the Syrian army. Maybe lynching black Africans in Libya and killing refugees in Damascus by the FSA is deemed "revolutionary" by Shashank Joshi? To others it is seen for what it is.

The crisis in Syria is tainted by outside meddling, the media war, supporting sectarianism, enabling al-Qaeda and other Islamists to cause mayhem and so forth.

A British journalist and another journalist were captured by terrorists in Syria. One stated that none were Syrian and many spoke with British accents and other from the Caucasus and so forth. Meanwhile another video shows vast numbers of Islamists and mercenaries from other nations who are in Syria. It is clear that international ratlines are growing by the day!
07:27 PM on 07/31/2012
Also, Shashank Joshi should be highlighting Iraq more than Libya because the sectarian card is being whipped up by the same Sunni Islamists in Iraq and the same applies to international Islamists. We all know that vast numbers of Christians fled and the same applies to Shabaks, Yazidis, Mandaeans and from the two main faiths along with others. In Libya the religious reality is much more fluid because vast majority are Sunni Muslim.

Also, two proxies were used by both sides in Libya - Western forces bombed on behalf of the rebels and many non-Libyans fought for the former ruler of Libya. Also, unlike Libya, Bashar al-Assad is much more liked by many segments of Syria - around 11 million according to various sources demonstrated back in April for Bashar al-Assad - the leader of Libya never had the same internal support.

"Is it true that, as Shoebridge writes, despite "crimes on both sides, [the] western media [is] interested only in one side"? Not really. On more than one occasion, the BBC (and other outlets) have prominently covered rebel abuses." comments Shashank Joshi - again note the weakness - "on more than one occasion." The BBC even used an image of Iraq and stated it was a massacre in Syria and why state "on more than one occasion?"
07:39 PM on 07/31/2012
I liked you carefully considered an informed comment on what seems to be a very complex issue. I fear we will see more horrors before this ends; maybe it will spread throughout the Middle East and beyond.
07:25 PM on 07/31/2012
Another comment stated that Bashar al-Assad is using "anti-Sunni sectarian militias to enforce its rule." Strange because the political organization is open to anyone and three of the four last major generals upgraded are Sunni Muslim. Bashar al-Assad also married to a Sunni Muslim and it is Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey who are playing the sectarian card.

Who can believe that Saudi Arabia is interested in human rights - a nation which supports killing apostates and shackling women. More Kurds have been killed in Turkey than people killed in the crisis in Syria. Turkey also still in Northern Cyprus and often violates the land of Iraq.

The Libyan crisis is also now unfolding in Mali with the rise of al Qaeda and even US forces are alarmed by this consequence. If individuals believe that Libya is doing such a great job then clearly no central control and countless numbers of people being held by various different militias. However, if you support the theory like in Iraq that it is ok to kill vast numbers of people in order to obtain a goal - then this this is up to Shashank Joshi?