I have never been in favour of the UK and the United States taking unilateral action against Iran; my views are well known to the whips. This is still my view. But, let me make it clear, the threat of any other military action with Iran cannot be ruled out.
The principle that overrides all of my thinking in foreign affairs is that I want to see everything that can possibly be done, to avoid the death of innocent people. It is this overriding principle that has led me to clarify my position. I am no pacifist, nor am I an appeaser, however I have been sickened in the last decade by Britain's and America's disastrous approach to Middle East affairs.
It is clear to us all that Iraq was a disaster. It not only resulted in the death of hundreds of thousands of innocent people, but it was carried out through the impatience of the then British and US leaders, who simply had their minds set on a conflict, regardless of what the weapons inspectors were advising. In my view, this also led to the shift in power that we now face with Iran today.
My opposition to military action against Iran was embedded in the experience of Iraq. To this day I simply will not support a unilateral military campaign. An attack tomorrow would simply be the best recruiting agent for a major war with the West, and the objectives would also be highly unclear.
So, with this in mind, can I be opposed to any military action with Iran?
To answer this I need to address my overriding key principle; that politicians have the highest moral responsibility above all else to prevent the deaths of innocent people; after all, war is the failure of politicians, but we should never take the threat of a retaliatory strike off the table.
So, what is the view of the general public? If you were to have 'the conversation in the pub' approach, the answer would seem pretty clear that we should not get involved. "Iran is nowhere near us", "they are going to get the bomb anyway", "we have been involved in too many Middle East conflicts", "what does it have to do with us?", "Leave it to the Israelis, they're the only ones under threat".
A chorus of statements that I have heard in my constituency, all of which would suggest that Britain should not be involved under any circumstances.
If only it was that simple. As a benevolent country we have an obligation to provide assistance to all our UN partners. As a politician I have a commitment to protect the UK interests. As an MP I have a commitment to my constituents to ensure that their standard of living is protected.
My driving question is: does Iran actually have to drop a nuclear bomb to dominate the Middle East? I would argue, no.
There are those who try to placate the language of President Ahmadinejad arguing that he did not actually say that Israel should be wiped off the map, or that his words were lost in translation. However, regardless of any spin doctoring or appeasing sentimentality, one thing that can be derived from President Ahmadinejad's language is that he is a very dangerous man with an anti-Semitic agenda, who, at a minimum, believes that the Jews should be driven out of Jerusalem. Does this mean he would drop a nuclear bomb on Israel? Almost certainly not.
President Ahmadinejad has shown himself time again to be a wily operator and an extremely adept politician; vastly underestimated by some in the West. In my view there is no realistic chance of him inviting a full scale intervention on Iran through a direct attack on Israel, as the reprisals on his country would be devastating and certainly his regime would be destroyed. So he will achieve his anti-Semitic ideals through other means. At this point it is worth noting that although he cannot stand in the next Presidential Election, it does not mean he will disappear or not stand in the next. One only has to look at Russia.
We need to look at the effect that Iran with a nuclear weapon would have on the area. The first and most worrying would be the uprising by Hezbollah and Hamas.
It is common knowledge that Hezbollah are funded and trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and that support from Iran is also given to Hamas. Both of these organisations are a constant threat to Israel; launching mortar attacks, kidnapping Israeli soldiers, a proxy war on the Israeli - Lebanon border in 2006 and the unrelenting goal of trying to achieve the destruction of the Jewish state. Imagine the empowerment that both of these organisations would have, with a nuclear power supporting them in the wings.
The argument should not just be about the threat to Israel either. An almost bigger concern is the Shia/Sunni conflict that would take place between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Also, without ever firing a nuclear weapon, Iran, with its superior military might, could easily walk into Bahrain, a Sunni government with a Shia majority. Indeed the Arab Spring uprising in Bahrain became a proxy war between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia.
A nuclear armed Iran on the boarder of Saudi Arabia would not be something the Saudi's will sit back and accept. One only has to look at the effect of the Cuban Missile crisis to see how effective moving weapons into an area can have; America agreed to withdraw its strategic missiles from Turkey. Therefore almost overnight, in my opinion, Saudi Arabia would become a Nuclear power with the backing of the United States, thus uttering in the dawn of a new Cold War?
So now we are into stalemate. What happens next? Well, clearly the Saudi's would demand the withdrawal of Iran form Bahrain and Iran would almost certainly say no. After all this, there would effectively be an Islamic war. However, add to this volatile compound the fact that the Saudi's would almost certainly have the backing of the West, a proxy war with the West would ensue and no shortage of Iranians and other Shia Muslims would be volunteering to go to battle. Should the war go from cold to hot, nuclear weapons would be in the arsenals, but the war would be fought conventionally, and this is where the effects on the West becomes huge.
Whether people like the argument about oil or not, the Straits of Hormuz would be a key strategic waterway for the Iranians in a war with Saudi Arabia; almost a modern day trench line. Supplies, tankers, trade etc effectively would be stuck either in or out of the Arabian Gulf. A global economic depression would ensue that would make the last few years seem like a warm-up act. Finally, the result would be the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocent people.
In demonstrating that a nuclear armed -Iran would not mean a nuclear war, but would almost certainly lead to a massive escalation in military conflict across the entire Middle East Region, leading to a devastating economic collapse across the entire world, the question which has not been answered by anyone is, what form would military action take?
Although I believe that the option of military action can not be taken off the table, I must reemphasise that we are a long way from carrying out such an act. The current sanctions are starting to have an impact. The Russians do not want a nuclear Iran but will not countenance a military attack. This makes things complicated because a UN resolution seems very unlikely as Russia and China would veto it. Therefore the options would be limited.
An air attack has many uncertainties. A well developed Iranian Air Defence system does not make this an easy task, compared to say the recent conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. Despite the huge advancement in bunker busting, laser guided missiles, the key assumption is that the missile gets to reach its target. The Iranians highly developed military capability means that one cannot rule out that they could divert any missiles from the target, thus most likely killing innocent people.
A land war? It is much more specific in its objectives, but, lest we forget, the land border war of 1980 to 1988 between Iran and Iraq killed over a million people and resulted in stalemate. Indeed, it left Saddam Hussein so humiliated that he had no choice but to invade Kuwait to prove he was still a regional power. Thus leading, to not only twenty years of conflict, but in my view, the reason we are having this discussion today.
It is highly likely in my opinion however, that there will be some early peripheral battles as Iran tries to kick back at sanctions. If Iran does blockade the straits of Hormuz, then a legitimate naval conflict will follow to countenance this illegal act. But this will be a side-show to the ongoing development of their nuclear programme.
So, if the West engages in warfare due to illegal acts by Iran at sea, what action can we take to slow down the nuclear programme?
In my view, we need to disrupt the nuclear programme without killing hundreds of innocent people. I would condemn any nation that ordered the assassination of Iranian scientists. However, I am willing to support the electronic attacks on laboratory equipment. If the Iranian nuclear programme can be held back, or even shut down through electronic computer attack, then perhaps we may evade a 'hot' war.
Although we cannot rule out and indeed would have no choice but to react to illegal, tangible military activities, such as the blockade of the Straits of Hormuz, we should look at all other possible means, especially cyber warfare before conventional military action and this should only be used as the very last resort. Remember, pre-emptive unilateral strikes, not only would raise the stakes in the entire region, but would not be the relatively easy campaigns that took place in Iraq and Libya.
The pursuit of a resolution through careful diplomatic, multilateral, discussions must rank above all else. Perhaps our most powerful tool in halting the Iranian nuclear weapon campaign is Russia. It is not in Russia's interests to see a nuclear-armed Iran as they are a key trading nation. This important relationship could be damaged irreparably if we act in haste, setting us on a military route from which we may not have an exit strategy.
We have the highest moral obligation to protect life across the entire region. We must do everything in our power to ensure that we do not kill civilians. The deaths of innocent people through the direct actions of the West is not only the failure of politicians and morally indefensible, but will always be the greatest recruiting agent to fight the West, regardless of the intricacies of the action.
The decisions relating to Iran at this moment in history will have far reaching consequences that could affect every man, women and child in the world and must be the decision and resolution of the widest multilateral coalition that is possible.
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They never seemed to have heard the term "global village." They can't be that naive. It takes nothing for Iran, who just this yr. launched a satellite, to develop a delivery system. In no time they'll have their yearnings satisfied when rockets will rain down over London, reminiscent of Germany during WWII.
Apart from that, the author overlooks the fact Iran is a signatory to the non-proliferation treaty, contrary to Israel, India, and Pakistan. The latter country, arguably, presents a much higher risk of a fundamentalist regime acquiring nuclear weapons.
Iran has every reason to be suspicious of any western move. Lest we forget, Iran has seen the overthrow of its Mossadeq regime by the British, and Western financed war by Saddam's Iraq. Furthermore, it is surrounded by nuclear armed powers: Russia, China, and the US, that has a large nuclear capacity in its 6th fleet and its bomber bases in the Middle East.
From their point of view, acquiring a nuclear deterrent would be the most rational thing to do, as is waging a proxy war through Hezbollah and others.
One thing the author overlooks, is that a strike on Iran's nuclear installations would kill thousands of innocent lifes, even if carried out succesfully. It would require the use of ground burst nuclear weapons, which would spread a large cloud of nuclear fall out over large parts of Iran, and possibly Pakistan.
Russia and america have been reducing the number of nukes they have over the years without incident and now would be a great time for all the ME countries to do the same. The bombs are causing the problem. Bombs gone ...problem solved. If any country doesn't want to comply then they are the ones causing the problem.
"War is the failure of politicians" - that's a good one. If politicians were to believe that going to war proves their failure, they wouldn't do it so easily.
How about the world says to Israel, make PEACE, no more WAR!
Events happened. When more important issues arise, the Palestinian issue reverts to the back burner. Despite all the talk you hear about how important it supposedly is to solve the Palestinian issue, the fact remains that it is insignificant in comparison with conflicts between actual nation states.
What event, you mean Palestine being recognized by the UN or, the upcoming US election?
"UN recognition of a Palestinian state receives public approval in Europe
Polls in France, UK and Germany show the majority of people back recognition of a Palestinian state by the UN"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/sep/12/recognising-palestinian-state-public-approval
I hope Palestine is put to vote again soon, and this time Obama does not veto it, not having peace in Palestine is a big part of the problems in the Middle East.
Yet open debates are a thing of the past. Not one debate on Israel's 400 Nukes, Not one debate how Israel has bankcrupt the USA UK and the West on wars that only the lobbies wanted based on lies and deceit. Amazing how many inquireies we have in the West but never any punishment for lies or miss managed the billions.
We seem to be keen on dishing out the punishment yet make every excuse under the sun for when we get found out telling half truths and lies. UK Government should serve the Great British people and stop taking instructions from the Whitehouse and the Kennessit.We need a Churchill or Maggie to run our great country
Can we debate and question Israel on the nukes before we demonise others. Double standards come to mind. If anyone Israel is the loose canon in the Region encouraged by the USA and its lapdog theUK.
I must stress the people of UK have much more integrity then the UK Government. Be proud to be British again and not a subservient fool of USA and Israel.
The popular refrain in Israel (and Congress) today is that Iran poses an existential threat to Jewish-majority state. That is because Iran is apparently pursuing nuclear weapon. Once that supposed nuclear weapon has been manufactured, Iranian mullahs will order that it be employed and await their own annihilation in rapturous, convulsive ecstasy (Israel possesses 200 nuclear weapons).
In reality, however, Israelis understand that Iran will not pursue anyone's eradication - their more honest leaders say so regularly. The two countries are engaged in kind of regional power struggle that has been the preserve of insurgent powers for centuries now. The Israelis possess qualitative military advantage which Iranians seek to neutralise. One effective way of doing so has been to nurture asymmetrical guerrilla organisations such as Lebanese Hezbollah. Another way of shrinking Israeli advantage is by pursuing nuclear weapons.
To be sure, it is far from clear that the Iranians are pursuing a nuclear weapon. Their nuclear enrichment programme is legal under terms of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty, which they have signed and ratified. But Iranians have no doubt taken note of two recent and relevant case studies: North Korea and Libya. Kim Jong-Il died of natural causes. Muammar Gadaffi did not.
Ahmed Moor
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/01/201212194348390751.html
As far as local politics & regional influence Iran has as much right to regional influence as the UK or US; what’s the problem with that? We should remember (Iranians do) that the CIA deposed the democratically elected Mossadegh government and installed the Shah as brutal hated dictator until the Islamic revolution of 1979. As far as arguable acts of war against Iran (sanctions, US naval threats & provocations (you know, the worldwide “force for good”), Israeli threats, etc) resulting from exercising their rights to peaceful nuclear power under the NPT & IAEA, it can be argued Iran is already under attack for nothing even slightly proven! Most calls for war & more sanctions directed at Iranian leadership & affecting their people (remember the innocents?) are coming from Israeli hysteria or pre-meditated agenda, their sycophants in the US Congress, “Christian” extremists, & the Lobby; NOTHING evidentiary; so why base an entire article on a questionable premise & speculation?
All in all, this piece seems somewhat schizophrenic.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5367892.stm
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/23/opinion/23cohen.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Peace_Initiative
http://archive.truthout.org/the-iaea-and-fraudulent-iranian-nuclear-documents65241
continued.....
"one thing that can be derived from President Ahmadinejad's language is that he is a very dangerous man with an anti-Semitic agenda, who, at a minimum, believes that the Jews should be driven out of Jerusalem. Does this mean he would drop a nuclear bomb on Israel? Almost certainly not."
It is that word "ALMOST" that is easy to say from London, impossible to risk in Jerusalem. Like it or not, that is a fact. Now how will the world deal with it? Or not. In which case Israel may well see no choice but to deal with it itself, seeing no other choice with its perception of back to the wall, faced with extermination.
2. Iran hasn't driven the Jews out of Iran. Iranian Jews have refused financial incentives from Israel to move there.
3. The threat of a nuclear bomb is an Israeli propaganda tactic. Iran has no nuclear weapons program (unlike Israel) and it would be suicidal to use one even if it did have one.
2. "Iran hasn't driven the Jews out of Iran. Iranian Jews have refused financial incentives from Israel to move there." No one said they did. And again, what does that have to do with the price of tea in China?
"3. The threat of a nuclear bomb is an Israeli propaganda tactic. Iran has no nuclear weapons program (unlike Israel) and it would be suicidal to use one even if it did have one. "
"If a day comes when the world of Islam is duly equipped with arms Israel has in possession, the situation of colonialism would face a stalemate because application of the atomic bomb would not leave anything in Israel, but the same thing would just produce damages in the Muslim world."
--Ayotollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, December 14, 2001
www.iran-press-service.com/articles/2001/dec-2001/rafsanjani_nuke-threat...
"We can destroy Israel with one nuclear bomb.Yes, Israel will retaliate. But the Muslim world is so big, it can absorb the losses." --Rafsanjani
www.afcpr.org/articles/6-7-08_israel_attack.htm
2. Since this regime took control of Iran the Iranian Jewish population has dropped from 100,000 to 20,000. Most who remained did so because of family and community connections. Iranian Jewis are not granted exit visas as families, so you can't emigrate unless you leave others behind.
3. Threat of a nuclear attack from Iran is bolstered by the fact that at this moment in the northern border of Israel Hezbollah has a stash of rockets aimed at Israel, all courtesy of the IRI. At the same time, in the south, Hamas is firing rockets into Israel, courtesy of the IRI.
4. If that wasn't scary enough there are messages coming from Iran justifying attacks on Israel & Jews. For example, a piece published in Iran's Alef Newspaper by Alireza Forghani in which he urged wiping out Israel by land to land rocket attacks before Ahmadinejads term is over. He went on to identify cities with large Jewish populations and said total destruction can occur in 9 minutes. Since Iran is not known for its free press and bloggers who disagree with the government are usually sent to Evin, the fact that this piece was published and is now being distributed through Iran's other media channels indicates someone higher up approves.