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Venezuelan Opposition Prepares for Non-Recognition of Chavez Victory

Posted: 04/09/2012 09:24

Venezuelans go to the polls on 7 October to elect their president. The main choice is between the incumbent Hugo Chavez and Henrique Capriles Radonski, a right-wing state governor with strong ties to the country's elite.

Yet with more than a month to go, sections of Venezuela's right wing opposition coalition seem to have made up their mind about the outcome. With substantial poll leads for Hugo Chávez they appear to be preparing to decry the official results as a fraud.

Ricardo Hausmann, a key Capriles economic adviser, recently said his campaign will announce their own results to the world before the official announcement is made by Venezuela's independent National Electoral Council (CNE), the equivalent of Britain's Electoral Commission. Their approach seems to be that unless the results go their way, the CNE's official results will be rejected by the opposition.

As Eleazar Diza Rangel, editor of Venezuela's main national newspaper Ultimas Noticias - broadly sympathetic to the anti-Chávez opposition - recently explained the purpose of attempts "to claim fraud at the coming presidential elections of 7 October [would be] in order not to recognise the people's will".

Whatever views are held of the Chávez government, its democratic mandate is without doubt. There is certainly no evidence from previous elections of fraud.

This will be Venezuela's 15th election since Chavez became President in 1999. All have been declared free and fair including by international bodies such as the EU and Organisation of American State. Just last month, Jennifer McCoy, director at the Carter Center, described Venezuela's electronic voting system as one of the most reliable in the world. At the coming elections, the Union of South American Nations will amongst the 200 international observers.

Any doubt about the impartiality of the CNE in organising free elections is surely swept aside by the fact that earlier this year Venezuela's main right-wing opposition coalition, the MUD, organised for it to conduct the right's Presidential primaries. The MUD Executive Secretary described the CNE's role in this selection as "an excellent indication of the democratic institutions in the country". It is not serious for the right-wing coalition to endorse the CNE as a legitimate electoral authority in February and denounce it in October.

The truth is that any opposition attempt to cry fraud is really about covering up its own political failings. Polls carried out by the major companies indicate a clear win for Hugo Chávez, with leads of between 15-27% in each of the 8 major polls carried out in July. August's polls give similar results.

Rejecting the results in the face of a Hugo Chavez victory would be totally consistent with the Venezuelan right-wing's record of resorting to undemocratic means. Most well known is the short-lived coup against the democratically-elected Chavez government in 2002 which abolished democracy altogether until it was overturned by popular demonstrations. Soon after in 2003, they unleashed a 64-day oil industry lock-out that saw GDP collapse by a third with the declared aim of ousting President Chavez. They then claimed fraud at the 2004 recall referendum to decide if Hugo Chávez would continue as President, which he won 58% to 42%. The opposition promised to provide the evidence but eight years on they have yet to produce it. And faced with certain defeat, they decided to boycott the 2005 parliamentary elections to distract from their unpopularity, a move opposed by the Organisation of American States.

Since then opposition has sought to use the democratic process to remove Hugo Chavez. It has not rejected the CNE results that saw its presidential candidate Henry Caprioles Radonski elected as a state governor, Chávez's constitutional changes defeated in a referendum or the right-wing win dozens of governors, mayors and MPs.

But faced with Hugo Chávez being elected for another six years, they now seem set to be resorting to old habits.

Any such manoeuvres to undermine the real outcome need to be widely condemned. It is the right of the Venezuelan people to freely determine who their next president is. Their will must be upheld and respected.

 
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Venezuelans go to the polls on 7 October to elect their president. The main choice is between the incumbent Hugo Chavez and Henrique Capriles Radonski, a right-wing state governor with strong ties to ...
Venezuelans go to the polls on 7 October to elect their president. The main choice is between the incumbent Hugo Chavez and Henrique Capriles Radonski, a right-wing state governor with strong ties to ...
 
 
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06:20 PM on 09/17/2012
First of all, what sources informed you that Diaz Rangel is ¨broadly sympathetic to the anti-Chávez opposition¨ he is the opposite,in fact.

Moreover, there have never been a situation as that that you mention would be ¨consistent¨ by not recognizing the electoral results in Venezuela before nor will happen In the future.

What are your basis to describe the opposition as a ¨right-wing¨? Did you know that more than 20 parties with different ideologies postulated their candidates for primary elections and Capriles was elected by almost 3 million voters?

Did you know that in April 2002 the Defense Secretary announced on live TV that Chavez resigned and the thereafter situation that you call ¨short-lived coup¨ was the result of this?

I think that Mr. Francisco Dominguez and his sources have a serious biased opinion on this issues, I strongly suggest you to visit Venezuela and experience first hand to have a comprehensive scope of the situation and not only one side of the story. Shame on you Mr Dominguez.
04:54 PM on 09/17/2012
I don't recall ever reading such a biased, manipulative and insulting article in my life. We Venezuelans want a change, we want security, we wish to live in a state of law, with equal rights for all, even if we are opposed to Chavez. However, we want this change to happen under the rule of law. Obviously, Mr. DomĂ­nguez has no knowledge of the reality of the situation in which most venezuelans live in: human rights violations, delinquency, poor or non-existing public health, and a very biased and not at all independent nor impartial Electoral Commision. This article, besides being an embarrassment, is offensive to the millions of Venezuelans who are committed to change, for a better country, a truly democratic country, and not one in which only those who identify with the government can enforce their rights. Dr. Fernando Dominguez: you, Sir, are an embarrassment.
11:55 PM on 09/16/2012
Chavez has been president of Venezuela for 12 years. Is it so difficult to believe that a great portion of Venezuelans may want a change of government? I find this article biased and insulting to all those Venezuelans who are going to vote on October 7th to exercise their rights. That the opposition wouldn't uphold the results is ridiculous, we have been doing so for the past DECADE. If Dr. Dominguez was really knowledgeable of the Venezuelan situation, he would know that the CNE, who governs Venezuelan elections, is far from impartial hence the fear of fraud. It is not the opposition who controls the police and the military. It is more likely that Chavez would not concede defeat by finding some way to make the elections invalid.
06:20 PM on 09/04/2012
The recall referendum of to 2004 was held with observers from the OAS and the Carter Center, as well as independent observers from around the world. The results were found legitimate and accurate. Ex president Carter himself was in venezuela in charge of the observation process of the Carter Center. the results were recognized by the US, the EU and every other country in the world. The prevous commentator, chooses to ignore all this and instead goes on about "7 peer reviewed articles" from alleged international journals of statistics, conveniently failing to mention the names of these supposed journals or articles. Who is being academically dishonest?
04:32 PM on 09/04/2012
Dr. Dominguez writes "There is certainly no evidence from previous elections of fraud." This is not true. There are 7 (seven!) peer-reviewed articles in international journals of statistics that all conclude that the recall referendum of 2004 was seriously tampered with, and the overall conclusion was that will of the people as expressed by the polls was to recall Chávez, but that the election authority through fraud gave the victory to the regime. To claim that there has no evidence of fraud is therefore academically dishonest, Dr. Dominguez.
Ulf Erlingsson, PhD
02:32 PM on 09/05/2012
Ulf Erlingsson, PhD, can you tell me how many peer reviews said exactly the opposite? My understanding was that the academic debate established a clear highly polarised election where the electoral circuits didn’t behave as a conventional statistic distribution in all electoral circuits. Do you remember who are the authors of those seven peer reviews you mentioned? Is by any chance among them defenders of the theory of the Venezuelan black swan?

Do you recognise the Centre Carter as a serious an honest organization? They are, among many others organizations and intellectuals that establish there are no evidences that reaming standing of fraud during that referendum poll.
03:38 PM on 09/04/2012
There will not be any fraud in the National Electoral Council (CNE). But if the President loses on October 7, as is expected if you observe his recent behavior toeards his rival, he will simply order 4 out of 5 CNE Rectors to proclaim his victory, no explanations required.. Any complaint by Venezuela's democratic forces will be dismissed as that will prove right the public opinion framework that the Government has been preparing, including this article from Brazil, that the opposition will reject the results announced by CNE because Capriles is a "right wing state governor with strong ties to the country's elite". If any of the 4 Rector ladies of the CNE object, they will land in jail together with Judge Afiuni, whos is being kept a prisioner just to show all what happens to those that dare affront the President-Commandant. I dearly hope I am wrong, because if I am right, there will be much suffering and loss of life in Venezuela. The Venezuelan "elite" is more than 40% of the registered voters, while more and more of the followers of or "enlightened one" are failing to show at the polls. You cannot fool all of the people all of the time.
12:47 PM on 09/04/2012
The Venezuelan upper classes hate the Venezuelan demos, thus they can not be expected to love Venezuelan democracy...
12:30 PM on 09/04/2012
Moreover, last Sunday, Venezuela held a voting drill to familiarize voters with their system. In this mock election were not counted the votes cast. However, while the political party of Pres. Chavez called on his supporters to attend, noticing the high turnout, the opposition parties virtually ignored the drill. But yesterday the opposition held a press conference to say that their candidate won the mock election. This shows what they'll do.