As violence continues after the latest rebellion in eastern Congo - which over the last three months has killed hundreds of civilians and displaced around 400,000 - it is necessary to reassess the international response to these events.
The UN Group of Experts report in June, which accused Rwanda of supporting the mutiny of M23 rebels from the Congolese army, sparked international condemnation of the Rwandan government. Driven by the evidence in the report as well as fierce criticism by human rights groups and media commentators, the governments of the US, the UK, the Netherlands, Germany and Sweden delayed or withdrew aid packages to Rwanda. While there is little doubt that Rwanda - not for the first time - has interfered dangerously in Congolese affairs, we need to cast a critical eye over both the UN report and the use of foreign aid as a tool for changing Rwanda's regional policy.
That loyal supporters of Rwandan President Paul Kagame's government, such as the US and the UK, have responded so strongly to the UN report highlights the power of the Group of Experts to influence international diplomacy. The report, however, is far from the watertight analysis that some diplomats and commentators have assumed. The dearth of comprehensive information on political and military affairs in central Africa means that many foreign actors rely too heavily on this particular UN group and often fail to sufficiently scrutinise its findings.
In the case of the June report, donors have responded to what is explicitly an interim analysis by the Group of Experts. UN protocol dictates that such findings are released mid-year, leaving time for responses from the relevant regional governments and peer review by commentators, before the final, revised report is submitted at the year's end. In this instance, the donors have shifted their policies on Rwanda - which denies any involvement in Congo - before the UN's evidence has been adequately assessed.
While the Rwandan government's detailed response to the report, released two weeks ago, contains many questionable claims, it also raises some compelling points that warrant attention. To take one example, the Group of Experts erroneously claimed that Rwanda trained some M23 fighters at the Kanombe army barracks in the Rwandan capital, Kigali, when those barracks comprise only a military hospital and a cemetery. This error suggests that the Group of Experts conducted rapid evidence-gathering in a confined region of eastern Congo and spent little time researching within Rwanda. This geographical limitation has implications for other key aspects of the report.
The recent case of the alleged Congolese rebel leader, Callixte Mbarushimana, at the International Criminal Court (ICC) criticised the methodologies employed by a range of international observer groups in eastern Congo, including the UN Group of Experts. A key reason that the ICC found Mbarushimana not guilty was that the evidence gathered by the Group of Experts, Human Rights Watch and others, upon which the ICC prosecution built its case, did not withstand the forensic scrutiny of the courtroom. This highlights the need for slow, careful assessment of the methods and conclusions of all observer groups working in this region. The latest Group of Experts report reads like a final legal judgment - and has been treated as such in many quarters - rather than a separate piece of evidence that requires critical evaluation.
Not only have international donors reacted too hastily, without sufficiently assessing the UN findings, but their decision to use aid as a bargaining chip with the Rwandan government is also highly problematic. Even if we agree that Rwanda's intervention in Congo exacerbates a volatile situation, decreasing aid to Rwanda will not solve the problem of endemic violence and deprivation in Congo. Furthermore, it risks damaging a still fragile social and economic situation in Rwanda.
One major problem with the UN report and the international reaction to it is the insistence that Rwanda is primarily responsible for current instability in eastern Congo. This view neglects the role played by Congolese President Joseph Kabila in generating the M23 mutiny. One key motivator for the rebellion was that Kabila reneged on deals with these same rebels in 2009, before they were integrated into the Congolese army, that they would not be scattered away from their homelands in North and South Kivu - which Kabila threatened to do earlier this year - and that they would be paid adequate salaries. Kabila's bad faith on these counts has undermined the 2009 peace agreement between Congo, Rwanda and a range of rebel groups, which improved the security situation in eastern Congo.
More broadly, the singular focus on Rwanda ignores Kabila's failure to control his armed forces, which are responsible for as many attacks on Congolese civilians as the litany of rebel groups operating in the eastern provinces, as well as his tendency to use inflammatory ethnic rhetoric against supposed 'Rwandans' living in Congo, as seen during the 2006 and 2011 presidential campaigns. Simply removing Rwandan influence from eastern Congo will not address these fundamental causes of conflict and Kabila's role in fomenting tensions for his own political gain.
Finally, withdrawing aid from Rwanda could have dire consequences for a country still addressing the complex legacies of the 1994 genocide. Donor contributions represent around 48% of the Rwandan national budget, the vast majority of which is spent on education, health and poverty alleviation. Most observers agree that Rwanda has recorded extraordinary successes in these domains since the genocide because of its effective use of international aid and its low levels of corruption. These major socio-economic achievements have been the bedrock of the peace and stability that Rwanda has enjoyed over the last 18 years. The positive impact of aid in Rwanda poses a major dilemma for donors, who have few levers of influence over Kagame's government other than the delay or withdrawal of budgetary support. The danger, however, in using aid in this way is that ultimately it will be the Rwandan population that suffers from any reduction in social and economic services. Withholding aid will do little to address systemic problems in Congo and will undermine substantial gains in Rwanda. This risks causing major instability within Rwanda and the region as a whole.
How long shall we take to live on Western Aid? Africa and especially Rwanda need to develop Home Grown mechanisms to fight poverty, illiteracy and other developmental threats regardless of the west. Why should some one say that withholding aid "risks causing major instability within Rwanda and the region as a whole."Dr Phil, Rwanda is a stable country with a vision of prosperity and not stagnation.
Readers,when Rwanda was ingratiating the GACACA courts the donors withheld aid in the name of fear for justice. During the 2003 presidential elections, donors and foreign powers cut of aid in the name of democracy. Am sure Rwandans are used to such acts of cutting off aid from the budget line. The good thing about the western inhuman act is that when ever they cut off aid, Rwandans initiate a consoling program to cover the cut off cost. "AGACHIRO DEVELOPMENT FUND" is among the programs am talking about. Rwandans upon their free will and love for their country upon understanding of the nature of the donors have contributed over one billion USD to support the government budget.
Cutting off aid doesn't weaken Rwanda as it is presumed by most of the donors in the west but rather strengthens Rwandans to appreciate what we have and to profitably utilize the limited resources we have for the development of our country
When donors who cut aid to Rwanda finally come to their sense and try to re-examine the facts, they will realize that they fell prey to the machinations of the Anti- Rwandan Brigade. My heart tells me this will finally mark the end of the Rwanda haters. But my head tells me donors do not give a rats a** ..
The current report was authored by Mr Steve Hege, a re-known Genocide denier and carrier-long FDLR/Interahamwe sympathizer with connections to the European Jesuits and the Vatican ( both known to hold a century-old grudge against Tutsis) . Mr Hege, holds opinions and has previously published works that would automatically disqualify him from any UN appointment had the UN not been a compromised, incompetent and corrupt body.
In the end, it should be the international community that should be sidelined out of African affairs but unfortunately exacerbating national division and ethnic divisions will never help the pan African cause. I urge Kagame to move with vision but also with respect. Plundering the Congo as if there is no tomorrow is far from being visionary.
Should France invade Italy because there is a large number of Francophone italians living there? Should they form a government? Indeed Rwanda should be allowed to make business in Congo like everyone else but should that also include destabilizing the government, killing the population and claiming rights in a sovereign land? I dont think so.