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Is the Premier League Becoming a two-Club Dynasty?

Posted: 1/09/2011 00:00

The 13-goal mauling dished out by both Manchester sides to their north London opponents on Sunday raises an intriguing question: is this the future of English football?

Having dominated the opening fixtures of the season, Manchester United and Manchester City look streets ahead of their closest rivals, leading to suggestion that the Premier League could become a perennial two-horse race akin to the Spanish and Scottish leagues.

Such a development would undoubtedly be to the detriment of English football. As brilliant as the Spanish clásicos may be, the predictability of seeing Real Madrid and Barcelona quash their opponents in every other game of the season rather detracts from the excitement.

The two great rivals have won nine of the last eleven La Liga titles, while in recent seasons the chasm has only widened between the best and the rest. The gap is now so entrenched that Barcelona strolled to a 5-0 victory over Champions League side Villareal on Monday, despite only fielding one recognised defender.

In Scotland it is the same story. You have to go back to 1985 to find the last time a side other than Celtic or Rangers won the Scottish league. The winners that year? Aberdeen; managed by none other than Alex Ferguson.

Thankfully there remains one crucial difference between the English Premier League and Spain's La Liga: in the distribution of revenue from broadcasting rights. In England television revenue is shared out relatively evenly, although obviously the clubs that qualify for the Champions League stand to make a lot more, thus reinforcing their position at the top.

But in Spain each team negotiates separate agreements over broadcasting revenue, meaning mega-clubs Barcelona and Real Madrid earn as much as the rest of the league combined. As a result of this structural inequality, only these two teams have any realistic chance of winning the title.

While it remains early in the season to say with certainty that the Premier League is going the same way, the signs are ominous. The current trend dates back to 1992, when England's biggest clubs broke away from the Football League to create their own lucrative division. Now, with every year that passes English football becomes more of an elite sport in which financial might outweighs all else.

As the wealth gap grows more extreme, the top six has now become a top two or three. While Chelsea might just challenge the Manchester clubs for first place, Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs will be scrapping it out for the final Champions League place this season.

Neither Arsenal nor Tottenham can afford to pay the requisite wages or transfer fees to attract the game's top players. Arsene Wenger's sound philosophy of financial responsibility may be admirable but try telling that to a trophy-starved Arsenal fan after the 8-2 humiliation at Old Trafford. Meanwhile Liverpool have strengthened considerably and look unrecognisable from the sorry outfit of the recent past, but would realistically settle for a return to the top four this season.

Thanks to Roman Abramovich's billions, Chelsea remain the side best equipped to compete with the red and blue halves of Manchester. Yet even Chelsea have grown so desperate not to fall behind that they've already spent the best part of £100 million in 2011, half of which was on a misfiring striker Fernando Torres.

Manchester City spent the same figure last year just to force their way into the top four, and they have not let up since, most notably bringing in Sergio Agüero and Samri Nasri over the summer.

Having long since established themselves at the top of the Premier League hierarchy, Manchester United can take their pick of the league's most talented prospects, such as Phil Jones and Ashley Young. While United's talented young side might seem a refreshing antidote to their noisy neighbours' expensively assembled dream team, it should be remembered that the Red Devils are consistently ranked as the richest club in the world. While Ferguson can take great credit for their success, it is no coincidence they always finish in the top two.

While FIFA's financial fair play regulations should even things up in theory, both Manchester sides have moved to pre-empt these restrictions by signing unprecedented sponsorship deals. In July Manchester City sold the naming rights to their stadium as part of a record £400 million sponsorship deal with Etihat Airlines, amid whispers of links between the company and City's Abu Dhabi-based owners.

The following month Manchester United announced a new £40 million sponsorship deal with DHL for their training kit - worth more than all but five of the league's main shirt sponsorship deals. The biggest clubs, it seems, will always find new ways to bring in greater revenue.
So after three games played, United and City sit top of the table. We should get used to it. A real gulf in class has opened up among the Premier League's top sides in 2011. If English football is destined to follow the same path as in Spain and Scotland then this season may well prove the moment it became a duopoly.

 

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08:58 PM on 09/04/2011
The thing about Spain's La Liga though is that the third, fourth and fifth teams (Valencia, Villarreal, and Sevilla/Atletico Madrid/Athletic Bilbao) can hold their own in European Competition. Atleti won the Europa League only a year ago, for example.

Madrid and Barca are absolutely at the top but that is because their unique rivalry brings out the potential of their players. When one side improves, the other does the same. They are spurring each other on, in a way. The over-all quality of the rest of the game in Spain makes it wonderful to watch.

Anyway - I can't stand the EPL or Serie A. La Liga and the Bundesliga is where all the most entertaining games are.
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AntonioSaucedo
09:00 AM on 09/04/2011
The EPL is not a duopoly, it's even worse: a monopoly. It's all about ManU. Statistics don't lie. ManU have won 70% of titles in the last 25% years. It's still a pretty cool league even though the winner is usually the same team.
12:14 AM on 09/03/2011
Nope.
01:13 PM on 09/02/2011
Still think the Champions League is the worst thing that has happened to the game. (Well except for Arsenal of course!) ...................Guess which team I follow? :-}

But seriously if City do win this year I wonder how the fans will feel sitting there and knowing that they just bought the Cup?

I'm no fan of either team, especially after what they did to mine over the last two weeks, but give the devil his due, Ferguson does bring up some local lads, wonder how many English players will get a decent run with City this year?
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stuoverit
"What year did Jesus think it was?"-GC
05:40 PM on 09/02/2011
Yeah, there's just no heart or character behind City. Say what you will about Man U, but Sir Alex doesn't go spend 150 million pounds for talent.
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09:00 PM on 09/04/2011
The fans are likely thinking: "This is my team. I can't stop supporting them just because they came into some money for once." And I'm afraid I have to agree with them. Can you imagine supporting City over the last 35 years. Any sort of luck probably goes down well with the fans.

Man City has been fortunate, and they are certainly a poor-man's-Galactico-collector - but they won't be losing their support over it.
01:12 PM on 09/02/2011
Both previous comments are correct. Its seems rediculous that someone would right an article like this at the begining of the season???? By no means are Chelsea, Arsenal or Liverpool out of the running. MC will start to drop points within a few months and Arsenal will pick themselves up with their new signings. Chelsea is the team to watch, without a blip in performace they wil be the ones to dominate.
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Seaniebhoy
05:46 PM on 09/01/2011
It's only 4 matches into the season!
05:07 AM on 09/01/2011
On sheer wealth, Chelsea and Man City will dominate, at least until FFP comes in.

Man United will be dominant as long as Ferguson remains.