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Iain Anderson

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Europe: Will Cameron Win the Long Game?

Posted: 13/12/2011 00:00

You have to hand it to David Cameron - he is playing UK domestic politics perfectly at the moment.

While the political and economic chatterati have filled the press with doom laden treaties about Britain being isolated from Europe following the late night veto in Brussels last week, Cameron and master tactician George Osborne know their approach plays well with middle Britain. They are clawing back the gap with Labour in the opinion polls.

And middle Britons most certainly do help politicians win general elections.

This is all part of a strategy for 2015. In the same vein the Autumn Statement was about firing up the Tory electoral base as the middle classes continues to be squeezed .

While the idea of a 2015 general election fought about Europe will fill Number 10 with horror - the scars of the Save the Pound campaign fought by William Hague in 2001 are still raw for many - it would help detract from the likely hard grind of economics which Britons will continue to face.

Of course a referendum on Europe may come before that. The 81 Tory MPs who voted for one last month may force the government's hand yet further. The headlines say that the prime minister has been boxed in by them.

I'm not so sure.

In a Brussels conference room around 2am last Friday morning David Cameron placed his demands on the table. Sleep deprived European leaders were never likely to sign up to the UK's attempts to row back financial sector legislation. This was a political fix.

The UK's rubicon they would not cross. And Cameron knew it. Time to invoke the UK power of veto.

So we now have headlines which say its 26 versus 1. And right now, that's true. I attended a conference in the City of London yesterday and UK finance is very nervous about the ability of the sector to influence EU legislation in the immediate future. I share that concern.

But the biggest issue - which was not on the table in Brussels last week - is the sustainability of the euro itself. Fiscal union and budgetary control will be years in the making. And David Cameron knows that.

A politician needs voters to elect him - not business - and most voters are not in love with Europe. Cameron may have calculated the euro cannot be salvaged and - in time - he will be seen to have forced Europe to change course.

The prime minister is playing the long game. The very long game!

 

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You have to hand it to David Cameron - he is playing UK domestic politics perfectly at the moment. While the political and economic chatterati have filled the press with doom laden treaties about Br...
You have to hand it to David Cameron - he is playing UK domestic politics perfectly at the moment. While the political and economic chatterati have filled the press with doom laden treaties about Br...
 
 
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01:31 PM on 12/13/2011
Britain would not want to be a member of the EU if it caused harm to our American friends or caused harm to our commonwealth friends who have now got their independence.Their is not one Continent on Earth that Britain does not have good friends.more to UK than you think.
01:26 PM on 12/13/2011
From Britains point of view we spend £Billions sending MEP's to EU,more£Billions on contrbutions.More £billions on trade deficit with EU, More£billions on sharing our fishing grounds with the EU,More £billions on ECB. Why would we not want to be a member?
01:19 PM on 12/13/2011
The British people lost a great many good Philanthropists in the last two wars,who gave everything for the cause of freedom& Democracy. Why would we not want to be part of EU.?
11:12 AM on 12/13/2011
For once we have an astute politician in Cameron who is putting his country first. Take note Clegg and Milliband
02:29 PM on 12/13/2011
"the country" = Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales & England.

Explain in what way Cameron put the needs of the Union first ? He didn't even consult.
11:06 AM on 12/13/2011
If majority in the UK don´t want to be in the EU then GTFO and stop blocking decisions for the countries that do want to be there and agree on the ways of shaping the future of the union!
02:31 PM on 12/13/2011
Sabotage is a cowards game.
08:48 AM on 12/13/2011
It just goes to show how fickle pollsters are if one right makes up for 25 wrongs
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Parthiban Yahambaram
12:44 PM on 12/13/2011
Of course it does. Pollsters are fickle. Voters are fickle. That is because human beings, by nature, are fickle.

All the article does is point out that whatever the long-term consequences for Britain may or may not be, the consequences for David Cameron are good, in that his personal support across the country will rise.