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Arctic Sea Ice - a Clear Warning

Posted: 31/08/2012 00:00

Every summer the sea ice in the Arctic shrinks, usually reaching a minimum around early September, and every winter at least some of the ice reforms as temperatures drop. But in the three decades since records began in 1979, the area covered by ice in early September - the 'sea ice minimum' - has been decreasing, shrinking by around 13% per decade. To date, the record sea ice minimum was in 2007.

That is, until last weekend. While some of us were enjoying the only really sunny day of the August bank holiday, the Arctic sea ice passed the 2007 record, and it's not yet reached its minimum. So 2012 is definitely a new low for the melting of the Arctic ice. We'll see over the next couple of weeks how deep the new low goes.

Clearly the impacts of changing sea ice patterns, and the possibility of ice-free summers in the foreseeable future, have major consequences for the Arctic wildlife and people whose lives and livelihoods have evolved around the ebb and flow of the sea ice. And it is lamentable that some people view the melting Arctic as an opportunity for oil and gas exploration - activities that have made such a great contribution to global warming in the first place - rather than as a portent and a glimpse of the future that awaits us in a climate changed world.

Because the Arctic is the 'canary in the coalmine' for our warming world; the poles warm more quickly for several reasons, with the result that the Arctic and the Antarctic Peninsula warm up most quickly, serving as an indicator of things to come and a warning to the rest of the world. Already we are seeing increasing 'global weirding' - changing weather patterns and more extreme weather events as climate change exerts its influence.

In addition, as this year's American drought begins to hit world food prices, climate change ceases to be an issue that can be batted around without consequence or responsibility in the British press, and becomes a very real part of people's lives - particularly the world's poorest and most vulnerable.

Over the past few years governments and policymakers have talked about a target of limiting climate change to 2oC [above pre-industrial levels]. But recent science has shown that two degrees of warming isn't nearly as 'safe' as people thought ten years ago, which is why WWF and many other countries and organisation are calling for a target of 1.5oC.

And last week Professor Sir Bob Watson - a highly respected UK scientist and currently Chief Scientific Advisor to Defra - warned that the chances of keeping the global temperature increase under 2oC (never mind 1.5oC) were 'largely out of the window'.

So we have a choice now, and much of that choice is linked to our awareness, and whether or not we choose to act now on that awareness. We can either work very hard to protect the Arctic, by reducing greenhouse gas emissions from our energy use and from deforestation (which is perfectly possible to do) and learn to adapt to a world of moderate climate change. Or we can follow the current example of our own UK Treasury, concentrating on the short-term and doing as little as possible.

But if we take the second path we can't pretend we didn't know, because the Arctic has just given us another clear warning of what is happening. We will have to acknowledge openly that young people today, and certainly their children, will not be able to aspire to the same safe and beautiful world to which we have aspired. We'll be seen as the generation that knew but didn't act - the ones who watched the devastation of our natural world, and did nothing to stop it.

 

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Every summer the sea ice in the Arctic shrinks, usually reaching a minimum around early September, and every winter at least some of the ice reforms as temperatures drop. But in the three decades sinc...
Every summer the sea ice in the Arctic shrinks, usually reaching a minimum around early September, and every winter at least some of the ice reforms as temperatures drop. But in the three decades sinc...
 
 
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Gnomish
ego doctus ignarus
10:24 AM on 09/03/2012
Since when did mankind start heeding warnings? We have had one weather disaster after another this year and not a single thing has changed for the better about how we treat our environment, If anything we increased our pace of destruction.

Humanity has a death wish.
09:41 AM on 09/03/2012
it really miffs me off when I read articles like this and the way that they are directed at the everyday person. Its the big business and industry that need to have this information regularly thrust in front of them and the governments that need to act and fast.....but they dont! Look at how they continue to chop vast areas of the worlds lungs (the tree's) away in the name of development. In my opinion if they didn't use and abuse our worlds resources in the way that they do and make the products available in the first place on mass, then Joe public would be none the wiser would have less variety of material things to spend their money on, and the world would be a much better place for everyone I feel. We are nothing more than parasites upon the surface of our planet and we should all be ashamed of what is happening to Gaia.
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Gnomish
ego doctus ignarus
10:30 AM on 09/03/2012
Humans don't even think about what they're doing Burnaby just put in a new bike path along the Fraser and cut down the very trees the Eagles used to use for fishing and the four most colorful maples in the park. So now we have a bike path through a vastly depleted area. This in a bird sanctuary to!

They don't even look before they cut!
11:00 AM on 09/03/2012
That is very sad. Must of been a wonderful sight watching that. I suppose we should be thankful for small mercies in the fact that it could of been a main road instead!

Thank you for the fave on my comment btw

Love and light to you my fellow earth friend! :-)
02:52 PM on 09/01/2012
The global climate tragedy is unfolding faster than any of us realizes, and the interest is miniscule. As of this time, this blog has 22 comments, and another similar blog on HuPo has two comments. The articles about cleavage exposures have hundreds and thousands of comments.

What happened to the Arctic ice is instructive. There were modest decreases in ice volume loss until significant amounts of open water began to appear. This opened the door to every conceivable phenomenon for positive feedback synergies kicking in, and the downward spiral has started to accelerate. This may be how Nature will operate in effecting climate change: add in as many positive feedback loops as possible, to finish the job in record time. If this is true, as it appears to be, the past will be an extremely conservative indicator of the future, and the downhill climate slide will turn into an avalanche.

For it to be prevented, the planet's population would have to agree to massive cuts in energy usage. That won't happen until it is too late, and probably not even then.
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snickers58
I'm watching you...
12:18 AM on 09/02/2012
There's an article on cleavage???
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ILoveFiction
That's unbelievable!
02:18 PM on 09/02/2012
Peer reviewed.
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vetxcl
12:02 AM on 09/01/2012
The Arctic icecap melting is not the "canary in the coal mine". This is really more like a shovel to the back of the head.
02:53 PM on 09/01/2012
It's more like the middle nail in the coffin.
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05:04 PM on 08/31/2012
The reduction in the ice volume in the Arctic is even much greater than the reduction in ice extent which gets most of the publicity. Clearly this is a signal that we need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions drastically but this requires our government and one party is based on denying reality and the other party is afraid to even mention the problem. Yes greenhouse gas emissions have been dropping in the US but this reduction is nowhere near what the scientists say is needed (at least 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020, we are still above 1990 levels). Only third party candidates like Jill Stein of the Green Party and Rocky Anderson of the Justice Party are up front about the situation. Some people say our only hope is a third party. Maybe they are right.
02:58 PM on 09/01/2012
I don't believe there is an 'only hope' left. The real problem is the addiction to a high intensive energy use lifestyle by the citizens of the advanced nations, and a desire to emulate this lifestyle by the citizens of the 'developing' nations. I see no way that these citizens will give up their addictions. In the USA, all the rhetoric is in the opposite direction.

I'm retired, and hopefully will miss the worst of these effects, although I will start to experience far more of them than I had thought possible only five years ago. The millenial generation can look forward to a world of increasing struggle for survival.
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vetxcl
09:09 PM on 09/02/2012
Citizens aren't the problem, if you believe polls. More like oil and gas industry legally bribing elected officials, being the real problem.
04:46 PM on 08/31/2012
I wonder when the Northwest Passage will open.
05:47 PM on 08/31/2012
It's been open for decades, even to cruise liners and sail boats.
12:34 PM on 09/02/2012
*jaw drops* why did nobody tell me!? is it open year round?
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vetxcl
09:13 PM on 09/02/2012
This article belies that it's been open for decades:

http://grist.org/news/yet-another-ship-makes-it-through-the-ice-light-northwest-passage/
02:55 PM on 08/31/2012
2007 is often quoted as the example when quoting Arctic ice cover minimum, very little however spoken about the 2008 winter growth which brought the region back to near 'normal' levels. Very little is spoken either regarding the expansion of the Antarctic ice cap of approximately 1.8% per decade!

Too many alarmist scientists cry wolf with insufficient data for their hypothetical scenarios! Satelite records have only existed for 33 years, a mere pinprick in time! Ice levels have been low in this transient region many times in the past!

Roald Admunsen navigated the North West Passage in a wooden rowing boat in August 2005! The passage was also successfully navigated several time during the 1940's
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dallasdunlap
03:48 PM on 08/31/2012
The sea ice minimum in 2008 was 34% below the 1979-2000 average. At the time it was the second lowest sea ice extent measured. http://nsidc.org/news/press/20081002_seaice_pressrelease.html

Antarctica, contrary to your statement, is LOSING ice mass, not gaining it: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/20100108_Is_Antarctica_Melting.html

You are confused about Roald Amundsen. He used a small sailboat to navigate the Northwest Passage in a 3 year journey that lasted from 1903 to 1906. As the passage wasnot opened continuously, it took him 3 years.
Since then the occasional icebeaker has made the journey but it was 2007 before the passage was thawed enough to allow a cargo ship through.
11:10 PM on 09/02/2012
dallasdunlap! I owe you an apology, I quoted a website regarding Roald Amundsen without cross checking other sources because I was in a hurry! Nor did I remember my history from school!
04:22 PM on 08/31/2012
Quote: "2007 is often quoted as the example when quoting Arctic ice cover minimum, very little however spoken about the 2008 winter growth which brought the region back to near 'normal' levels."

So there are fluctuations back to normal, but not above normal unlike the fluctuations to ever lower levels. Are you going to ignore a trend or rely on a single year?

Quote: "Very little is spoken either regarding the expansion of the Antarctic ice cap of approximately 1.8% per decade!"

Because what you (and Wiki) are referring to is the extent of the Antarctic sea ice which is relatively unimportant. The amount of ice on the land making up the Antarctic ice sheet is the important factor in global warming and that is declining.
05:21 PM on 08/31/2012
Interesting! Land and Sea ice melt every year in both the Arctic and Antarctic, that's a normal state of events. The ice melt during the summer of 2008-2009 was the lowest ever recorded! Not a peep out of NASA about that one!
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fumes
Midnight Toker
12:00 AM on 08/31/2012
Climate change stories from the abyss
August 29th, 2012

An international team of scientists have shed new light on the world's history of climate change.

The findings are published in the latest edition of Nature.

: "Nowadays we often discuss global warming induced by man-made carbon dioxide. However, on geological timescales of millions of years other processes determine the carbon cycle."

Volcanoes are one major source of carbon dioxide input to the atmosphere.

"The interesting point in our study is that the carbonate boundary is fluctuating over time. It shallows during periods of warm climate and normally deepens when ice age conditions prevail."

http://phys.org/news/2012-08-climate-stories-abyss.html
06:05 AM on 08/31/2012
We are not the problem. The problem is China, India, and the rest of the developing world.

If every country reduced it's emissions every year (like the USA is doing), there might be a chance to reduce CO2 emissions globally. Otherwise, nothing we do will make a difference.
Unless you consider millions of Americans losing their jobs, homes, families, and way of life as progress.
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wmnorton
Moderate where moderate used to be
07:52 AM on 08/31/2012
No the problem solution is not for us to do nothing and claim the problem is China's fault. We need to be leading the world in renewable energy, instead we are supporting fossil fuels which are fast becoming the mill stone around our neck, and before you bring up Solyndra, think about where they would be if we had treated them the way China treated their competitors who ran them out of bussiness. China didn't gurantee loans, they gave them grants, and barred Solyndra from entering the Chinese market, we open our markets and let them dump panels until Solyndra didn't have a chance. We are doing the same with windmills. We need to return to what our founding fathers (Alexander Hamilton) taught us, take care of American Business first. then engage in foriegn trade.
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eaarth2
“An era ends when its illusions are exhausted
10:42 AM on 08/31/2012
since most of our industry has been shipped to these Asian countries- have we really reduced our emissions here in the US?
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Dallas Dunlap
05:05 PM on 08/31/2012
fumes - You realize, don't you, that a shallower carbonate layer during warm periods implies that there is more CO2 in the atmosphere during warm periods.
In modern times, human CO2 emissions are roughly 100 times greater than emissions from volcanoes.
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fumes
Midnight Toker
05:45 PM on 08/31/2012
and...
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Damiano Iocovozzi MSN NP
Director, CEO, the Thomas Edwin Walls Foundation
11:56 PM on 08/30/2012
Good article, but please go further next time. At one degree C increase, there are marked changes: the USA midwest will become a desert again & what remains of topsoil will blow away. We're already witnessing the thinning polar ices, but the permafrost also is beginning to melt, releasing methane, 20 x more potent as CO2. Island nations are flooding more. There are presently more & stronger storms, due to increases in water vapor, a greenhouse gas. Between 1-2 degree increase, there is less albedo effect at the poles where sunlight reflects back into the atmosphere. Stressed trees also contribute to the positive feedback loops, adding more CO2 than O2. Heat waves everywhere increase. As the glaciers melt, many of the world's rivers will narrow & dry out. Countries become destabilised with many ecological & political refugees looking for H20, fuel & food. Between 2-3 degrees increase, life becomes unbearable: soils emit more CO2, forests like the Amazon burn away, releasing more CO2, carbon, food & water are very scarce. Nations disappear. Source: Global Warming: Our Future
03:08 PM on 09/01/2012
I question whether we could even stabilize the temperature at two degrees. Kevin Anderson looked at the relation between CO2 emissions and temperature increase. He found e.g. that if we continue on our present global CO2 emissions path and peak in 2020, then globally we would have to reduce CO2 emissions by 10% annually for decades in order for temperature to stabilize at two degrees. What are the odds of such a decrease in CO2 emissions happening? And, I believe Anderson's projections are very conservative, since his models don't include the synergistic effects of positive feedback loops.

I see no way out!
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Damiano Iocovozzi MSN NP
Director, CEO, the Thomas Edwin Walls Foundation
04:06 PM on 09/01/2012
Mr. Super, The nations of the earth are at a stalemate as far as working to correct the problem for many reasons. There is also a huge disinformation campaign designed to spread fear, uncertainty & doubt on the science. I'm glad I was born in 1952 instead of 2012. I fear for the younger generations who may experience hunger, conflict & thirst. The real problems of the world are rarely spoken of: overpopulation & planetary degradation. Just listen to the American politicians during this election season. Frightening! Damiano
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vetxcl
09:19 PM on 09/02/2012
If you're looking for thorough and exhaustive scientific studies & analysis; you're on the wrong site.

This is the site for jokes and mockery.
11:15 PM on 08/30/2012
Actually not near enough has been done in a way of giving the problem enough attention.
There are 6 million SETs in the United States. That's Scientists, Engineers and Technitians. If each one were to give a thousand dollars to organizations to publicise this problem, there would be 6 billion dollars for the effort. a thousand dollars isn't to much to save people from the problems of a to warm a planet in the future. But there is just not enough organization and caring from to many people.
03:11 PM on 09/01/2012
Wouldn't do any good. In the end, it boils down to us, the energy consumers, having to cut back to the domestic energy use we had during WWII, or perhaps even less. I don't see anyone willing to make the level of sacrifice required. All the publicity in the world will be useless, because people won't take the bitter medicine that is required.
06:04 PM on 09/01/2012
I would disagree with how you describe what is needed to solve the problem. It is not sacrifice that is needed. The problem can be solved by building enough low and non carbon energy power plants, energy efficiency and good design.
I'm planning on building a house with 2 foot thick wall insulation and 3 foot thick ceiling insulation that doesn't need a furnace.
Go to the National Renewable Energy Labratory (NREL) website and their recent report that 80 of our electrical power can be produced by renewable energy.
Would sacrifice help, sure. But it can be done without it. Instead of building carbon fuel consuming machines and buildings, build non carbon fuel consuming machines and buildings.
06:17 PM on 09/01/2012
There are two alarmists concerning global warming.

One group of alarmists are scientists who are telling us about the dangers to the planet climate from greenhouse gases.

The second group of alarmists are those who are telling us we can't get along without carbon fueled energy.

My opinion is that the scientists are right that there are dangers to the planets climate and to the people living on the planet to global warming.

My opinion is that the group of alarmists telling us that we can't get along without the high level of carbon fuel consumtion are wrong. There are substitutes. But to this second group of people, it would be bad if people were to use less of the product they sell. it's about the money.

It's hard to find an honest broker about many subjects and this is not different. But reports have shown that if we were to build non carbon energy, it could be done.
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fumes
Midnight Toker
10:59 PM on 08/30/2012
too funny!

cyclically there were palm trees and crocodiles at the poles..

and there will be again
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12:24 AM on 08/31/2012
...and most humans will die (like most other animals) because they can't adapt in time.
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fumes
Midnight Toker
12:37 AM on 08/31/2012
too true! it should happen w/o any warning.. and be all over in a matter of days
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blackwind
Relax, nothing is under control
11:36 PM on 08/31/2012
There is nothing cyclical about the climate changes that made the poles tropical. All evidence has those changes being acyclic.
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vetxcl
09:23 PM on 09/02/2012
You're trying to talk sense into the impenetrable membrane surrounding a denier's microcephalus.
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wrabbitt
Soylent Green IS People.
10:53 PM on 08/30/2012
The world does not really pay attention to the "Climate Change Myth" because the soothsayers have beat their drum too many times. I believe that the collapse of the ice shelf in the south, and the "End of ice" in the north are omens we can no longer ignore. Mankind has laid waste to many resources and, doesn't see this as important, I am 60+ and I will not be around when earth calls in its marker.
03:14 PM on 09/01/2012
Well, I'm 70+ and I used to believe that Nature's climate blowback wouldn't affect me. Now, seeing what's happening in the Arctic, and understaning what Nature is really doing, makes me less sure. I believe that many people in the wrong locations will experience dramatic effects in the next few years. It's happening in some locations already, but the effect will be nonlinear, and we should start to see rapid accelerations shortly.
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wrabbitt
Soylent Green IS People.
03:32 PM on 09/01/2012
We have noticed an acceleration of change, being 60+ I believe that in my life time I will see change,catastrophic change. What have we done!