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Why Yvette Is Going to Win

06/09/2015 11:29 BST | Updated 06/09/2016 10:59 BST

As we go into the final Sunday, there's obviously a bit of interest in who's where in the Labour leadership race. So here's the key facts as I see them.

First, since Yvette's breakthrough speech in Manchester - and her speech on refugees this week - there's been a huge surge in members who tell us they're planning to vote Yvette first. Members want a strong leader. Crucially, they want a leader on the front foot, not the back foot. They know the Tories want to dismantle the state - and the Labour Party. Members want someone who can take on Cameron and Osborne - they don't want a leader trapped, ensnared and left defending positions from the past. My guess, by the way, is that members will make up over half the final vote.

So members are the key.

Second - and this is vital - in London and the South East, it's now a two horse race between Yvette and Jeremy. No-one else is even close. This is important because London and the South East are home to almost a third of members. And here, my colleague Andy Burnham is trailing in fourth. It's impossible to win from that position. Repeat: impossible.

Third, this is why the vast majority of MPs who nominated Liz are putting Yvette as their second preference. They're listening and leading their members. Our internal data confirms this. Eighty five percent of Liz supporters are voting Yvette second - and indeed many are switching to Yvette as their first preference choice.

So: the race has been transformed in the last ten days.

Members hold the balance of power. It's a two horse race - and overwhelmingly both Liz and Andy supporters have Yvette as their second preference.

That's why I think Yvette is going to win.

Liam Byrne is the Labour MP for Birmingham Hodge Hill

This blog first appeared on Liam's personal website, and can be read here