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Nehad Ismail

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The Future is Grim for Al-Qaeda

Posted: 03/10/11 01:00 BST

In reply to a question about the impact of 9/11 attacks on organisations like the IRA, I remember saying to a Television Station reporter that "if I was in their shoes, that is the shoes of the IRA bosses, I would look for other work". "The world does not anymore tolerate terrorist acts against civilian targets to advance their political agenda". Ten years later I still hold the same view with regard to al-Qaeda.

The recent killing of Anwar al-Awlaki and his associate Samir Khan by an unmanned drone has dealt another severe blow to al Qaeda.

American born al-Awlaki, described by U.S intelligence as "chief of operations" for al-Qaeda in Yemen, was killed in a CIA drone attack in a remote Yemeni town on Friday according to U.S officials. Five people accompanying Awlaki were also killed including Samir Khan 25.

According to US Officials Awlaki was believed to be a skilled propagandist who used the internet to promote his cause and inspire attacks on the United States, as well as being directly involved in such attacks.

Awlaki was implicated in the Detroit bombing. U.S officials believe there was contact between Awlaki and Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the so-called "underwear bomber" who had been charged with a failed attempt to attack a Detroit-bound airliner on Christmas Day 2009.
Samir Khan, a US citizen from North Carolina with a Pakistani background, was the man behind "Inspire" an Islamist magazine that offered a heady mix of Qur'anic commentary, propaganda and tips on bomb-making. Inspire was launched in June 2010 but only seven issues have been released.

According to the Guardian, British intelligence officers hacked into an early edition, inserting a "pdf file" containing fairy cake recipes and garbled most of the magazine 67 pages.
Al-Qaeda has been in a state of permanent decline since a Navy Seals team killed Bin Laden on May 2nd 2011. A CIA controlled drone killed al-Qaeda's second-in-command in Pakistan, Atiyah Abd al-Rahman, on August 22nd. The killing of al-Rahman was another major blow to al-Qaeda's infrastructure and prestige.

Bin Laden's successor Ayman al-Zawahiri who was recently appointed as the new Commander of the global jihadist network Al-Qaeda would be next. Let us remember that he had announced that his violent campaign against the West and the secular Arab regimes would continue. Despite this threat, I don't believe Al-Qaeda is capable of carrying out major operations in Western Europe, USA and the Middle East.

If I was advising him I would tell him; Mr. Zawzhiri the game is up, resign, find another job and declare the end of al-Qaeda and terrorism. I would also tell him this would not guarantee his safety. But if you hand yourself in to the authorities and renounce terrorism, it might serve as a mitigating factor in your favour when you appear in court.

I believe that Zawahiri is damaged goods. He cannot fill the vacant position of Bin Laden, he does not inspire and his TV appearances are boring non-events. However, it is safe to say that the demise of Bin Laden; Atiyah Abd al-Rahman and Anwar al Awlaki have considerably weakened but not completely finished al-Qaeda.

We might disagree with President Obama's handling of the Israeli Palestinian conflict, and disagree with him for not being tougher with the Syrian regime which is killing pro-democracy protesters with all military means including tanks and aircraft. But we must express admiration for President Obama's resolute determination to defeat al Qaeda. He has done more in five months to weaken al-Qaeda than former President Bush's eight years of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. I fully understand why Republicans and some right wing media people are doing all they can to minimise the importance of Obama's success in the fight against al-Qaeda.

Al-Qaeda's record of murders extends back to the early 1990s. More Muslims were killed by al Qaeda in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan than by military action by the US and its allies. More Iraqis were killed by al-Qaeda inspired violence than by the military invasion of Iraq in 2003. More and more Muslims were turning away from Al-Qaeda. Recent events in the Middle East have confirmed the growing irrelevance of Bin Laden and al-Qaeda.

Zawahiri and Bin Laden were in for a shock when the Arab Street erupted in Tunisia and Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Syria. None of the young people carried placards calling for jihad or support for al-Qaeda. None of the placards showed Bin Laden's face. Even after Bin Laden was killed on May 2nd very few in the Arab or Muslim World protested.

Al-Qaeda has lost the ability to mount a spectacular act of terrorism similar to 9/11. It is much weaker now. It is strapped for cash and many adherents have walked away.
The war against al Qaeda is not over. Its decentralized franchise structure has not been completely dismantled. Morales may have fallen, but these guys will reassert themselves somehow to tell the world "we are still relevant and don't write us off".
I urge Zawahiri, the current head of al-Qaeda, his collaborators and henchmen to start looking for new careers. It does not pay to be a terrorist.

It is time for al Qaeda's upper echelon to consider a career change. The future is grim and time is running out.

 

Follow Nehad Ismail on Twitter: www.twitter.com/nehadismail

In reply to a question about the impact of 9/11 attacks on organisations like the IRA, I remember saying to a Television Station reporter that "if I was in their shoes, that is the shoes of the IRA bo...
In reply to a question about the impact of 9/11 attacks on organisations like the IRA, I remember saying to a Television Station reporter that "if I was in their shoes, that is the shoes of the IRA bo...
 
 
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02:13 PM on 10/06/2011
Shame on the moderator of this article
07:43 AM on 10/05/2011
I believe Al-Qaeda has lost much support in the Arab world but can we say the same thing about Pakistan?
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Nehad Ismail
08:41 AM on 10/05/2011
Thanks Potkin. Pakistan still houses the surviving remnants of Al-Qaeda but its global reach has been severely weakened. Financial support is drying up. Its failure to find fresh recruits are also contributing to its long term decline.
03:57 PM on 10/04/2011
Terrorism as a political/ideological statement has no place in the global village we live in. We are all interdependent and those who resort to violence for some unnamed cause are just criminals. So saying that, we should as citizens of this world renounce those who kill innocent people. Would you want them to be the mediators of "what is right" in the world? So I agree, get another job . . . something productive . . .
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Nehad Ismail
05:53 PM on 10/04/2011
Thanks William well said and I agree.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
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02:57 PM on 10/04/2011
Words that haunt Muslims who still support Islamic supremacy through jihad:

“In his own words at his celebration dinner, bin Laden laid out bluntly his theory of power: "When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature they will like the strong horse."

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,188329,00.html#ixzz1Zox2lts7

Irish Republican Army supporters and supporters of Soviet Communism know how this ends--with the bitter taste of ashes in your mouth, for the rest of your life.
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Idean Salehyan
Associate Professor of Political Science, Universi
04:35 AM on 10/04/2011
I'm not so sure. There is a difference between the organization and the ideology of militant Islam. Al-Qaeda may have suffered some drawbacks, but Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, and others are on the brink of takeover by radicals.
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03:11 PM on 10/04/2011
The fuel for this conflict is the Islamic doctrines supporting the goal of political supremacy through jihad. Al Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Taliban and other groups provided the match.

The fire extinguisher is doctrinal reform to remove the Islamist political party from the spiritual religion of Islam.

The global Muslim community is fighting a civil war driven by this issue.

Reformers are allies of the West, anti reform elements are our enemies.
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Nehad Ismail
05:52 PM on 10/04/2011
Thanks Idean., I agree radicals are poised to take over in Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia but they will remain confined in these places. They don't have a unifying charismatic figure to inspire them. They don't have a central leadership to plan, coordinate and fund operations. The most important thing is the ordinary Muslims have rejected Al-Qaeda and its methods. So most unlikely to witness another 9/11 type operation. They may do some damage or killing here and there to demonstrate that they are still relevant.
06:52 AM on 10/05/2011
But if they gain power in Pakistan, have a charismatic leader and nuclear weapons...
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koos458
The Weather is Aways Nicer in Coos Bay
11:18 PM on 10/03/2011
Imagine, someday, an International Muslim peace keeping force. (I'm high right now, btw.)
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The Mighty Cynic
04:35 AM on 10/04/2011
it's your delusion and misinformation that makes you think Islam is a religion that espouses anything BUT peace.

and also, imagine, you actually said something smart and funny when you were high? bummer...
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03:13 PM on 10/04/2011
it's your delusion and misinforma­tion that makes you think Islam is a religion that espouses anything BUT peace.
===============

Riiight.

Present Sharia law:

" o9.0 JIHAD

" (O: Jihad means to war against non-Muslim­s, and it is etymologic­ally derived from the word mujahada, signifying warfare to establish the religion. And it is the lesser jihad. As for the greater jihad, it is spiritual warfare against the lower self (nafs), which is why the Prophet (Allah bless him and give him peace) said as he was returning from jihad..."

http://www.shafiifiqh.com/maktabah/relianceoftraveller.pdf
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koos458
The Weather is Aways Nicer in Coos Bay
04:31 PM on 10/04/2011
I bow to the Master. Your post was a lot funnier than mine.
10:12 PM on 10/03/2011
Is this another one of those "Mission Accomplished' messages? I believe it when I see it.
05:48 PM on 10/03/2011
Al Qaeda is so strong now that it controls cities and seaports in Yemen.
lastpost
see biography
01:39 PM on 10/03/2011
"The world does not anymore tolerate terrorist acts against civilian targets"
The world never did tolerate terrorist acts against civilian targets. But as far as the powers that be are concerned civilians, like the military, are expendable. That ideology, in common with the terrorist’s, is not open to testing and is thus immutable.

"another severe blow to al Qaeda"
How many civilian deaths where these individuals implicated in? And how many civilian deaths where those opposing them implicated in?

"we must express admiration for President Obama's resolute determination to"
place corrupt corporate control of government before the will of the majority of the people. Truly a giant leap forward, for peace in the world.

"the fight against al-Qaeda."
and its kind, will not be won by becoming an even greater threat to humanity.

"None of the placards showed Bin Laden's face."
Perhaps people are reaching the conclusion, that change only comes when those running ruinous regimes are themselves sickened by the killing.

"The future is grim and time is running out."
But for whom?
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Nehad Ismail
02:02 PM on 10/03/2011
Thanks lastpost. You raised a number of interesting points and I appreciate that. The future is grim and time is running out for Al-Qaeda members particularly those at the top. That's why I am suggesting that they look for alternative work or consider career change. (the original title of the article was "Al Qaeda guys must look for work etc.".
07:32 PM on 10/03/2011
Lastpost may have raised some interesting points but they have not offered a single solution to the problem of terrorism. If anything, it is a blatant attack against President Obama and his successful operations against the cause of terrorism. Although I do not like to make assumptions, it's possible lastpost is one of those Republicans or Tea Party members who are critical of Obama no matter what he does! If the Republicans or Tea Party support "something" and Obama does it, he is criticized and condemned by the very ones who had originally supported the "something."

Excellent article, BTW! Now let's hope the right individuals read it and take it to heart!
07:15 PM on 10/03/2011
While there is no doubt innocent civilians are being killed in the war against terrorism, it is not an ideology by anyone in the US government that I'm aware of. And this goes for both the Dems and Repubs. Unfortunately civilians die in times of war, they are unintentional collateral damage. Let's not forget the collateral damage from both WWI and WWII.

What do you mean by, "how many civilian deaths where these individuals implicated in? Are you serious? They may not have personally pulled the trigger, but their exhortations have been the cause of others pulling the trigger, figuratively and literally speaking! And these terrorists, unlike our troops (or most of them), seem to kill without regard. These individuals are most definitely implicated in a heck of lot of dead innocents.

While there is no doubt that corruption exists in politics and the corporate world, and always has, what does any of this have to do with Mr. Ismail's article? It says nothing about world peace, or lack of. But your response does reveal your bias.

Short of dropping a nuke, how is the war against terrorism an even greater threat to humanity? While I'm not happy with the direction some of our freedoms have taken (e.g. the Patriot Act), to not act against terrorism is treason. Or would you prefer to let them alone until they hijack the plane you're on?

Continued....