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Sir Christopher Meyer

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The Euro-Crisis: Apocalypse Soon?

Posted: 22/05/2012 00:00

The endless eurozone crisis provokes a despairing weariness. It suffocates almost every international meeting like a damp, grey blanket. The G8 has come and gone in Camp David, bringing, so it seems, a solution no nearer. Yet another EU summit will gather later this week. No-one is holding their breath that something fresh and decisive will emerge to halt the ever-mestasising threat of sovereign default. People are getting worn down on both sides of the Atlantic by the euro's constant menace to the best laid plans for the revival of national economies. The growth v. austerity battle is a false and tiresome dichotomy.

Yet, something has recently changed. To weariness, now add raw alarm. Over the years, European politicians have repeatedly cried wolf, invoking deadlines for a final solution to the euro-crisis that they have then declined to honour. The eurozone has staggered on, inhabiting a no-man's land somewhere between imperfect remedies and terminal crisis. Merkel's Stability Pact is the perfect embodiment of this state of limbo - too little, too late. Now, the new deadline is the Greek general election on 17 June. David Cameron has even labelled it a referendum on membership of the eurozone.

But, this time the wolf may soon be at the door. It takes the ominous shape of a run on banks, precipitated by a victory in the Greek election of the anti-austerity parties.

This is where the raw alarm comes in. We are already witnessing what looks like the start of a run on Greek and, possibly, Spanish banks. If this were to turn into full-scale panic - and it could happen even before the Greek elections - the euro-crisis would move into a new, uncontrollable and infinitely more dangerous phase. We are talking about the possible breakdown of societies and polities.

A Luxembourg politician notoriously said about the euro-crisis: "We all know what to do, but we don't know how to get re-elected once we have done it." This is the heart of the matter. Throughout the eurozone, and above all in Germany, politics has got in the way of a solution. You can understand why the German electorate is reluctant to throw what it sees as good Germany money after bad. Merkel is up for re-election next year and has just received a bloody nose in the important Nordrhein-Westfalen regional elections. But, it cannot be too often emphasised that it was above all at German insistence that, for political reasons, Greece and the peripherals joined the eurozone, even though none was economically fit to do so. The Greek chicken is the first to come home to roost, and how; and, while blame can be justifiably heaped on a succession of lamentable governments in Athens, Germany cannot dodge its own heavy responsibility for the euro-shambles that has ensued.

By all accounts Germany was isolated at the Camp David G8 meeting, as the other states put pressure on Merkel to place more of her country's resources in defence of the eurozone - to accept that only something like a eurobond can create a firewall large enough between Greece and the rest of the eurozone, not to mention the UK and the US (I assume that Greece herself is a lost cause). This was a novel experience for Germany. Has there ever been an occasion since the creation of the Federal Republic, when the Germans have been isolated at an international conference?

The 64,000 euro (or is it drachma?) question is whether this new and perilous phase in the euro-crisis will finally persuade Berlin to agree to the full 'mutualisation' of sovereign debt, as the precondition for a fiscal union worthy of the name. It is not necessarily a vote-loser for next year's elections. To go into battle as the saviour of Europe is surely no mean electoral asset.

 
 
 

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The endless eurozone crisis provokes a despairing weariness. It suffocates almost every international meeting like a damp, grey blanket. The G8 has come and gone in Camp David, bringing, so it seems, ...
The endless eurozone crisis provokes a despairing weariness. It suffocates almost every international meeting like a damp, grey blanket. The G8 has come and gone in Camp David, bringing, so it seems, ...
 
 
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14:33 on 25/05/2012
The sooner the better, Sir Christopher.

The calamitous, Utopian, unsustainable, fascist European Project, doomed from its inception, has run its course and should be given a decent burial, along with the treasonous politicians whose only motive for preserving it is their own survival.
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Blockem1
When will our politicians start putting policies
23:30 on 24/05/2012
Greece owes over one trillion dollars and cant pay it back,it has had austerity for the last four years , unemployment is rising the economy is in free fall.It cannot raise any further taxes and any one with assets is busy stuffing them into British and German banks. If they try to borrow any more money the going rate charged is about 23% its game over , their people have had enough they want out . Spain is just behind them , its banks have yet to factor in a revaluation of their property loans which run into billions , something like 23% of their mortgage books are in arrears and a high percentage of these loans have been resheduled more than once. They have only made a 3% provision for bad debts against this against an unemployment rate of 25% which is continuing to rise and again its economy is in meltdown. Its banks are effectivley bust and with the cost of its Goverment borrowing about to hit 7% it is in real danger of defaulting without a massive bailout. Germany dose not have the political will nor for that matter the ability to bankrole this impending disaster . PolIticians need to stop worrying about the Euro and those failing countries need to exit fast and focus on creating economic growth and jobs because that is the only way out .Pouring billions into eurobonds ,ECB loans or whatever wont save the day unless these economies have growth.
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FairPlayTony
I'm trying to think, don't confuse me with facts
17:04 on 23/05/2012
Excellent contribution. The real problems are the current account deficits caused by the lack of competitiveness in the Club Med zone (Ireland has made great efforts). If the net flow of Euros for trade is always South to North due to the lack of exchange rate adjustment, then there is no single Big Bazouka fix. There will need to be an endless succession of bail-outs, funded by the Euro North.

Meyer, above, is correct that Eurobonds could solve the problem, as Euros can be repatriated by bond purchases (instead of bail-outs). But I'm not sure that the Germans, Finns, Dutch etc. will permit such a system, which seems to carry "moral hazard" in appearing to reward poor performance.

At some point the Northern populace will say "enough", and then who knows what will happen? The Club Med zone needs supply-side adjustments and investment, but who will provide the national leadership and motivation? External calls for austerity don't seem enough.

I feel many commentators believe that we have a debt crisis but fail to explore the underlying long-term causes of the crisis. These are inappropriate interest rates(for Club Med), low productivity plus unreformed supply-sides all without the possibility of currency devaluation to maintain trade.
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Paul Wagland
Resistance is fertile
20:33 on 22/05/2012
Good article. Perhaps the author should have linked to this one:

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/willard-foxton/is-europes-choice-really-_b_1521219.html

...but how come nobody can spell metastasising?
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19:41 on 22/05/2012
The comeuppance of a world-wide culture (human nature?) where all we can do is take, take, take, whether it be retiring with a hefty state-provided pension at 55 or hoarding massive amounts of wealth made possible by the hefty sacrifices of the many generations which came before. We are selfish beyond belief and always fear that the "other guy" won't have to sacrifice. Well, we're all soon going to be the "other guy" forced to sacrifice by our collective fear and stupidity.
18:53 on 22/05/2012
The situation mankind now faces can remind of of Jesus words concerning the last days at Luke 21v25-26 "Also there will be signs in sun moon and stars and on the earth an anguish of nations not knowing the way out because of the roaring of the sea (restless humankind) and its agitation 26 while men become faint out of fear and expectation of the things coming upon the inhabited earth.for the powers of the heavens (Human Governments) will be shaken.
lastpost
see biography
12:38 on 22/05/2012
"Camp David"
I’ve always had suspicions, but it may just be the name.

"the best laid plans"
Forge a set of financial rules to safeguard the system. Then completely ignore them, and all those who are engaged in undoing it.

"raw alarm"
Thy nature is a realization, that rendition and reality aren’t one.

"inhabiting a no-man's land"
Entrenched, next tranche, new wave warfare.

"this state of limbo"
The people keep lowering the bar.Yet politicians still wriggle underneath.

"the possible breakdown of societies and polities."
Not to worry. It already had a very bad crack in it. Plus, you can’t make one-world order without a few broken egos.

"politics has got in the way of a solution."
Because its party first, people a very poor second. That ain’t democracy, and never has been.

"a succession of lamentable governments"
concomitant with a complete absence of independent supervision.

"Has there ever been an occasion since the creation of the Federal Republic, when the Germans have been isolated at an international conference?"
Where are all the Quislings when you need them?

"To go into battle"
is the surest way of proving a battle plan flawed.
12:33 on 22/05/2012
The biggest problem facing the European debtor nations is the approach taken by their governments to solving the crisis. As shown here, the austerity measures taken thus far will most likely lead to an increase in debt rather than meeting their intended purpose:

http://viableopposition.blogspot.ca/2012/05/austerity-in-europe-is-it-accomplishing.html
09:59 on 22/05/2012
We are talking about the possible breakdown of societies and polities.
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That may be so. Bit, if we are NOT talking about ASSET taxing the wealthy,
how can there be a crisis?
08:51 on 22/05/2012
Its a pity that we don't have more people like Sir Christopher Meyer looking after our well being, he talks a lot of sense. Very good article.
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jessjesskk
Benevolent Zombie Power
08:08 on 22/05/2012
we all know that we need the ECB to print what is litterally infinite money (2-3 trillions) to restart the system in Europe. This is vital for all of the developped world. Germans don't get it yet because they have been the beneficiary from the situation up to now... which means they will also be the first in line when things go very sour.

At this stage you need a politician ready to sacrifice his/her career to let a mark and his/her name in history.

Can Merkel do it?

I will be totally un PC... part of the story is I think she will not do it is because she is a woman. Women tend to be reasonable and structured. Men tend to be grandiose and take stupid risks for the sake of history. I just hope I am wrong...
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Laatab
All The Worlds A Stage
07:28 on 22/05/2012
It's a bit of a shock to me to read such an excellant and objectively honest overview from an establishment figure.