THE BLOG

How Ukip and the Greens Could Disappear By 2020

24/08/2015 09:21 BST | Updated 21/08/2016 10:59 BST

With Labour lurching to the Left and the EU referendum coming up, the Green Party and Ukip could find themselves irrelevant by the 2020 general election.

Regardless of the result of the referendum on Britain's EU membership, Ukip are widely seen as a single issue party. Their main principle of leading Britain to an exit from the European Union is impossible following their disappointing election in May, after securing only one seat in the Commons.

Ukip's march towards an exit from the EU will be trampled and led by those on the Left of the Labour Party and many in the Conservative party, all with several different motives and much more influence. If Britain does vote to leave the EU when the inevitable referendum comes around, Ukip's single issue will disappear, as will its credibility on the immigration debate.

Lynton Crosby, who masterminded the 2015 Conservative general election campaign, has also described Ukip as a "voice of discontent" and "too reliant" on Nigel Farage.

Ukip managed to win over four million votes in the general election, but only claimed one seat. The scale of Ukip's popularity should not be underestimated, but has triggered a reaction from the Westminster bubble. Both Labour and the Conservatives now have five more years to tackle the issues Ukip are so popular on, and will do so with ease given their major influence in parliament.

Ukip's entire ideology is based on a personality cult around Nigel Farage, who also failed to win his seat in May. After his farcical 'resignation' and subsequent return, Mr Farage faces a backlash from many Ukip members, who argue he should fight a leadership contest. The party is split and the only thing that was holding them together now faces opposition to his leadership from several top ranking Ukip officials.

Another minor party at threat is the Greens. Leading favourite to win the Labour leadership contest, Jeremy Corbyn, could put the nail in the coffin for the Greens by 2020. Labour's lurch to the Left after a disastrous election in May could render 'Green socialism' irrelevant. Trade unionists and socialists alike would surely back a Corbyn-led Labour over the Greens, who have no influence in Westminster.

The Greens were formerly seen to be the founders of 'champagne socialism' and, should Corbyn succeed Ed Miliband, this would certainly be the case again. The Greens, who won over one million votes in May, would surely be dismantled by any far-Left Labour opposition.

The Liberal Democrats had their worst election defeat ever in May, but could see some benefits from a Corbyn victory in the Labour leadership election. Many Labour Party members, who describe themselves as 'firmly centre-Left' could leave the party in September and cling to the centre-ground, which the Lib Dems would certainly reap the rewards of.

The so-called 'revolution' in British politics is certainly happening, but is taking the form of a far-Left Labour Party and a Conservative Party who are clearly shifting further Right as the year goes on.