The Arab Spring is not over, there are stirrings of political dissent in Russia, a transition in North Korea, the danger of an escalation of tensions in Iran, as well as real economic concerns over China and the USA.
So what could throw the world economy into an even deeper crisis?
Here is a series of margin risks that could plunge the already fragile economic recovery off track in 2012. While unlikely, they are real and potentially devastating.
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1. Iran Closes The Strait Of Hormuz
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Around one-third of the world's oil passes through a narrow channel between Iran and Oman - the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian government has been looking increasingly isolated as Syria - where it maintains influence - slides towards civil war, and as international pressure rises over the regime's attempts to develop nuclear weapons.
Earlier in December, an Iranian politician, Parviz Sarvari, warned that the country would shut off the strait as part of a military exercise. The country has previously threatened to use its strategic position in the energy market as a weapon.
Oil prices rose on December's threat, but bigger concerns over the world economy meant that markets' attention were focused elsewhere. But with a real possibility of Israeli airstrikes, should Iran appear close to getting somewhere with its nuclear programme, comes an appreciable threat of retribution and the closure of a key supply route for oil and liquefied natural gas.
It was a year of political ebb-and-flow as Brussels was whipped into a frantic storm.
Policymakers were led by markets and markets became led by politics.
The eurozone crisis is still the most c...
It was a year of political ebb-and-flow as Brussels was whipped into a frantic storm.
Policymakers were led by markets and markets became led by politics.
The eurozone crisis is still the most c...
In recent weeks, a broad range of data — like reports on new residential construction and small business confidence — have beaten analysts’ expectations. Initial...
God gave us life so God should come down to short out his world so what ever would happen i am sure it is his wish so why worry, if we die without food it was his wish, if there is a war, it was his wish, if there was earthquake at 9.9 or 20.5 it was God wish and if there is no food in one country it was God wish. Yes corruption and corrupted politicians are there because of it was God wish so why worry if we die on anything above, it was God wish live with peace and love all kids.
godchild: God gave us life so God should come down to
"A Harvard professor of international affairs says the warmongering calls for a military strike on Iran follow a classic model of deception that involves fabricating a threat and downplaying the repercussions of an attack. "
Thanks for the link. Quick review of the comments is reason enough to hope that the fanatical Iranian regime and its diehard fans never get their hands on nuclear weapons.
soodeeell: Thanks for the link. Quick review of the comments is
There are some good 'what if' lists on listservers. I wouldn't consider them worthy of a 'news' article, but they do drive up comments, i guess. bubble bubble toil and trouble
AngryMonkey: There are some good 'what if' lists on listservers. I
The worst that could happen is a war with Iran, because that would set the rest of the region alight, and create a world war. Millions of asylum seekers will then descend on Britain, continental Europe, Australia and North America, plunging these countries into some mixture of poverty and anarchy. Another flashpoint in that region is Egypt who needs to get rid of military rule, or they will turn to religion and then the mullahs will take over. True democracy does not mean that the military has the last say, which is what they are trying to install.
Let us hope, the US and/or Israel don't have so many domestic difficulties in 2012 that they have to distract from these through another war.
novelist2000: The worst that could happen is a war with Iran,
World War 3 would probably be at the top of the list. Well...it was a nice ride whilst it lasted, but to be honest things have yet to flat line, and that needs to happen before we have any real hope of rebuilding economies and what will be shattered nations. Maybe we'll learn a lesson or two about the folly of putting profit before stability? I doubt it though, greed is just too intrinsic to our nature.
Matthew_Harrold: World War 3 would probably be at the top of
The worst thing that could happen in 2012 is another Arab-type-Spring happening here in the UK, or another world war following the credit crunch which nearly destroyed the world's financial system. Household bills are going through the roof and the government is putting up taxes. People are clinging on by their fingernails, yet more than 400 MP's have been found to be fiddling their expenses and the last lot ran up the biggest government debt in history. Its all touch and go if you ask me.
Mickey_Mouse_1: The worst thing that could happen in 2012 is another
The biggest threat to our finances across is the European Stability Mechanism. A blank cheque for the EU to use however it likes with no legal redress against anyone involved in how it's used and no legal claim if it's abused. Is this the EU that we signed up to - a fascist superstate ?
Tel4b: The biggest threat to our finances across is the European
Huffington Post UK Peter Guest First Posted: 22/12/11 11:24 GMT Updated: 22/12/11 11:35 GMT