Moody's Puts UK On Negative Outlook, AAA Rating Under Threat

Moodys Aaa Credit Rating Osborne Cameron Balls

PA/The Huffington Post   First Posted: 14/02/2012 06:47 Updated: 14/02/2012 09:08

The credit rating agency Moody's has put the UK economy on "negative outlook", raising the prospect that Britain could be stripped of its prestigious AAA status. The surprise decision on Monday night was attributed to the ongoing crisis in the Eurozone, but Moody's also said there were doubts about whether the UK government was on target to reduce the budget deficit.

Chancellor George Osborne said the assessment was a vindication of the Government's tough austerity measures and "a reality check for anyone who thinks Britain can duck confronting its debts".

But the decision to place Britain on a watch-list will be seen as a sign of failure on Osborne's part, amid doubts about whether the pace of spending cuts across government departments can be maintained.

Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls told the Today programme on Radio 4 on Tuesday morning: "Without growth, without jobs, you can't get the deficit down, and that's where we are.

"George Osborne said we must press on because it's the only way to keep our ratings. I fear what's happening here is the world is making the 1930s mistake. This austerity isn't working but the message is, plough on, dig a deeper hole.

"It's time people said this isn't working. Today is the first evidence that even the ratings agencies are waking up to the fact that George Osborne's plan isn't working."

Moody's downgraded the ratings of six countries and also put France and Austria on the same caution as the UK amid violent protests in Greece over stringent measures to secure a fresh bailout.

Explaining its decision on the UK's prospects, it pointed to "increased uncertainty regarding the pace of fiscal consolidation in the UK due to materially weaker growth prospects over the next few years".

"Any further abrupt economic or fiscal deterioration would put into question the Government's ability to place the debt burden on a downward trajectory by fiscal year 2015-16," it said. It also predicted that the "high risk of further shocks (economic, financial, or political) within the currency union are exerting negative pressure".

Chancellor George Osborne said on Tuesday morning: "For me it was a reality check for the whole political system, that Britain has to deal with its debts. If we spend or borrow too much, we're going to lose our credit rating.

"Of course I want growth and to see unemployment fall... but if you don't deal with your debts then you will not have growth.

Moody's said it foresaw three main risks to the UK's top rating, the first being a combination of ongoing slow growth with "reduced political commitment to fiscal consolidation" or a "failure to respond" to worsening conditions. Other dangers were "a sharp rise in debt-refinancing costs, possibly associated with an inflation shock or a deterioration in market confidence over a sustained period" or a fresh crisis in the banking sector.

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The credit rating agency Moody's has put the UK economy on "negative outlook", raising the prospect that Britain could be stripped of its prestigious AAA status. The surprise decision on Monday nigh...
The credit rating agency Moody's has put the UK economy on "negative outlook", raising the prospect that Britain could be stripped of its prestigious AAA status. The surprise decision on Monday nigh...
 
 
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Richard Britton
British Socialist Global Realist
11:41 on 16/02/2012
if, after causing a massive rise in unemployment and what will be at least two of nearly flat economic output, the UK loses it's AAA status the George Osborne should resign or we should have a General Election.

The whole justification for economic policy was the over arching importance of preserving the AAA status and keeping the cost of borrowing down so if this is not achieved Osborne at least should do the honourable thing. Frankly, with millions in crisis, as reported today, I doubt the policy can be justified much longer but if the key reason were to be lost not only would the Chancellor be critically damaged but so would the policy
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12:40 on 14/02/2012
If small businesses are meant to be the major employers in Britain, but tax payer bailed out British banks like RBS don't have enough faith to lend to British small businesses because they consider them a greater and greater risk. How on earth can Britain have a AAA credit status at the same time?
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rabidrightwatch
Green lefty & active environmentalist
12:14 on 14/02/2012
My only surprise is that Moody's and S&P haven't done so already...

Not that I wish this to happen, you understand, but these ratings agencies (you know, the ones who missed entirely the 2007/8 crash and thought the US housing market was 'sound' - until it wasn't, of course) need to create another target for speculators to feed upon...

Increasing austerity with very little chance of recovery is a recipe for further trouble - even the Tories should be aware of this, but apparently not..!

When a Government stifles the means of recovery by undermining the economy, whilst at the same time reducing vital support from the poor and vulnerable, drastically reducing public spending & hollowing out our health and education systems, then it smacks of political idealogy rather than joined-up, long-term planning..

Unfortunately, this lot don't listen and care less, so we can expect more of the same...

Not a palatable prospect, I agree, but they seem hell-bent on a rigid neo-con agenda, when all they need to do is to look at the trend in the US to see what signficant harm this can do to the population at large.

So the rating agencies will circle slowly overhead, waiting patiently like vultures....until it suits them to strike on behalf of the speculators... take cover and watch out for vulture droppings..
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Jean-Francois Guilbert
11:34 on 14/02/2012
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10:13 on 14/02/2012
To see the effects of pressing on with austerity without growth take a look across the water at Greece.
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rabidrightwatch
Green lefty & active environmentalist
11:55 on 14/02/2012
or indeed the USA...
10:02 on 14/02/2012
It's so easy for Balls and co. to criticise.

If they had made the effort to tackle the deficit when they were in power it could have mean't that the measures needed were not so severe.

It's an insult to the intelligence of hard working people to bleat on about the mess we are in when something could have been done much sooner instead of wasting borrowed money creating public sector jobs that we couldn't afford, increasing benefit payments so it wasn't worth working and allowing immigration to explode costing us a fortune and ruining society as we knew it.

I am no fan of the coalition and am one of the hard up people that austerity affects deeply but at least this government is trying to sort it out instead of burying it's head in the sand.
Richard Britton
British Socialist Global Realist
11:46 on 16/02/2012
This government IS burying it's head in the sand. Millions of people are on the brink yet the deficit is not coming down whilst unemployment rises. The austerity has already been extended two years longer than originally predicted and we are not even two years into the Condem coalition.

Burying your head in the sand means ignoring all the evidence around - and the evidence says the economy is very fragile, unemployment is rising, living standards are being squeezed hard, consumer confidence is low and falling and has been falling for 2 years and despite all this austerity the deficit is not coming down. On top of that the really heavy cuts are yet to come

I fear for the country
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chrisctpaul
Things can only get better
09:46 on 14/02/2012
It is nearing the two year anniversary for the Con-Dems. I was hoping to start to see some positive results by this time, but nothing much yet. I did not vote for the Con-Dems in the last general election, but I believe everyone should be given a fair chance.

In their defence, the deficit has been reduced and it seems there is good growth in UK exports. But I think the key to UK growth as a whole is to reduce our imports and buy British, but this is down to the British public, only we can make stores stock British goods.

George Osborne has already admitted he is finding that the pledge to get rid of our deficit is a tougher challenge than he originally thought, as a result there will still be a large deficit by the next general election.

OK so its not looking too rosey at this time, but at the moment the alternative is voting in Ed Milliband. I have always voted Labour in the past, but with Mr Milliband holding the reigns, I don't think I could vote Labour next time.

So here's hoping our current government can pull off something miraculous and give the British people some faith, after all they still have 3 years in power and there is nothing we can do about it.
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rabidrightwatch
Green lefty & active environmentalist
10:03 on 14/02/2012
I think most of us see the virtue in buying locally, but things aren't quite that simple anymore.

When we had a real industrial base, we made things for people to buy, but no so much now..

Imagine trying to buy a car made in Britain (made, not assembled from imported components)
Imagine trying to by a TV, fridge, washing machine etc made in Britain - hardly any of these are made here anymore.

We can, of course, source some of our food locally, but much of our modern appetites are fuelled on imports. This can, of course, change and I hope it does, but with a population of 65+ million, we have for many decades relied on imported foods to satisfy demand.

This can't be turned around on a whim... this will take a long time with determination from every household, and I can't see that happening anytime soon.

Your gaols are impeccible and your reasoning sound, although you've identified the end-game and not provided any practical ways of achieving it..
09:38 on 14/02/2012
I think the printing of money will play a big part in this - it's got to stop.
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flumeinsummer
10:20 on 14/02/2012
We need to print more , lots more, that's what Moodys is telling the government.
12:51 on 14/02/2012
Tine to invest in a wheelbarrow business.
09:17 on 14/02/2012
Massive REAL unemployment, little or no surviving real industry, and a bunch of silly little schoolboys in charge. The great surprise is that Moody's have taken so long.
northern git
fed up with all the political crap in life
09:02 on 14/02/2012
So Osborne is in favour of ongoing austerity.

That sod is a millionaire in his own right.

WHAT WOULD HE KNOW ABOUT AUSTERITY
09:02 on 14/02/2012
Cameron, Clegg and Osbourne will be rubbing their hands with glee now. Where can they add a new tax on the UK working taxpayer.. breathing air, eating food, VAT on toilet use. These muppets havent a clue.
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08:30 on 14/02/2012
All of this from a rich bloke who,s mates own banks and insurance companies ,perhaps when he has an accident and gets whiplash and then suffers the pain ,cant work and then finds out he is not allowed to claim for the pain and the fact he cant work ,then gets the sack because he is not fit to work ,then finds out that the D.W.P gives him one of their medicals saying he is fit to work ,leading to the D.W.P TACKING HIS BENIFIT AWAY because he cant get get a job anyway because the bloke who started all of this GAVE AWAY ALL OF THE PUBLIC MONEY TO THE
BANKS ! then he is made homeless so the bank can reposess his house and sell it for a profit !
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theawesomejamie
this comment was brought to you by reason.
08:26 on 14/02/2012
There's always Wonga . com for when things get really rough.
northern git
fed up with all the political crap in life
09:25 on 14/02/2012
he probably has shares in it!
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flumeinsummer
10:21 on 14/02/2012
And the gold buying companies!