Double Dip: Britain Back In Recession, Say OECD Forecasters

Huffington Post UK  |  By Posted: 29/03/2012 10:54 Updated: 29/03/2012 11:24

Osborne
Chancellor George Osborne

Britain is likely to be back in a recession, according to international forecasters.

A recession is typically defined as two successive quarters of negative economic growth.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said GDP - a broad measure for the total economy - is on course to have fallen by about 0.1% in the three months to the end of March.

The OECD also warned the recovery for the world's biggest economies would be fragile, with the outlook for Europe "very weak".

In its latest interim assessment of the global economy the OECD estimated the UK economy experienced an annualised retraction of 1.2% in the last quarter of 2011 and of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2012.

It also predicted the economy would grow by 0.5% in the second quarter of 2012.

But that remains well below the G7 average, predicted to be around 1.9% growth in the second quarter of 2012 - with the US estimated to grow at 2.8%, Canada at 2.5% and Germany by 1.5%.

On Wednesday the Office of National Statistics said the UK economy shrank by more than previously thought in the final quarter of 2011.

GDP declined by 0.3%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, downwardly revised from previous estimates of 0.2%.

The ONS said there had been a slight decline in the powerhouse services sector, which had initially thought to have been flat, while household spending was also worse than previously thought.

Other analysts predicted the UK economy would grow in the first quarter.

Vicky Redwood, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, told the Guardian: "It looks as though the economy has managed to expand in Q1.

"Nonetheless, we still think that there are a number of reasons to doubt that the recovery can maintain the recent acceleration."

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Britain is likely to be back in a recession, according to international forecasters. A recession is typically defined as two successive quarters of negative economic growth. The Organisation for...
Britain is likely to be back in a recession, according to international forecasters. A recession is typically defined as two successive quarters of negative economic growth. The Organisation for...
 
 
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10:33 AM on 03/30/2012
The UK has relatively little to offer the world, aside from being a haven for useless immigrants and scroungers what do we offer?? the only thing currently propping us up is the fact the pound is worthless!
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edmurfin
Old man, on Bonus Time:-)
10:28 AM on 03/30/2012
No doubt, the continuation of negative economic growth will be compared with the upward trend in other countries, and the neuronally challenged British voters will blame Labour and continue to support the Tories and LibDems at the next election, forgetting the damage those Parties are presently doing.
08:49 AM on 03/30/2012
Another Huff panic headline,we're not actually in the mucky stuff yet,it's a guess
07:00 AM on 03/30/2012
The rich get richer and the poor get shafted as normal in this country.
How many company bosses gave them selves pay rises or bonuses this year ...to many
iv just been laid off with 18 others and have applied for 18 jobs in 4 days no mater how much i work my partner and family never seem to get any where 3 steps forward 4 steps back and now im limited to where i can work cause i cant aford to get there thanks to the fuel cost, and before anyone says use the bus down here in the soutth west of the country buses dont run every 5 mins let alone stop at every place where there is a sign of life and some places where i work buses dont get within 5 miles
10:40 AM on 03/30/2012
exactly! well said, I'm sorry to hear that you have been laid off mate, times are so tough for people at the moment, I have often felt as you said you do. Oh and living in the south west as well I totally get what you mean about not being able to rely on transportation via bus, I know I have had to keep my car going as I would be lost without it down here but that causes all sorts of headaches over money issues itself - insurance / tax / maintenance and ruddy fuel costs, all of which have to be done but sure hits you hard!
03:43 AM on 03/30/2012
I don't believe we were ever truly out of the recession in the first place, I know that everyone I have regular contact with be it my family or friends have felt as I have done that things have been bad for so long now. I don't know one person who isn't watching their spending more and trying to cut back on things, times are hard at the moment for most people and whilst some of the politicians etc can happily remain ignorant of this situation many of us are really struggling to keep things together. I know I am having to watch everything I spend now, even at the supermarkets using all the Tesco vouchers I get to save money, looking for the best offers on things, having to buy value range products more or multi packs to save on future shopping bills. If I need anything new for the house I am going to these re-use type places or Ebay or the facebook buy, sell swap groups where you can often pick something up second hand for a small amount, its sensible of course but I think its a sign of the times that such places are doing so well.
03:18 AM on 03/30/2012
The early analysis of the American Ambassador in the UK just after the last election looks to be spot on. His assessment of Cameron & Osbourne was that they had little understanding of the implications of the policies they were advocating. I well remember the views expressed by many economists and some financial institutions that the severe cutting policies would lead us back into another recession, hotly disputed by both of them at the time.
I don't think they really care too much as they are untouchable until 2015, with the assistance of the LibDems which gives plenty of time for the hidden agenda (NHS+ R. Mail++) to be achieved. Like Thatcher and Heseltine & Major's rapid sell offs of the utilities knowing defeat at the polls was coming, this lot will do the same. Job done they will say and when Labour drops a clanger or two they know they will be back in again.
When will we ever learn?
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edmurfin
Old man, on Bonus Time:-)
10:35 AM on 03/30/2012
I shall 'fan' you for that comment, Glynntex! I recall reading of that assessment of the two Cs capabilities. During the televised 'non debates' twixt them and Gordon Brown, Brown was the only one advocating a policy of encouraging growth and job creation before implementring any cuts deemed necessary. Such a shame that Gordon has the charisma of an old house brick, else voters might have pondered his thoughts more carefully then.
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Gunderan
Who let the Libertarians out without supervision?
02:36 PM on 03/30/2012
Yeah i agree he has the chrisma of a house brick but we suffered too long from his idea's.100 billion pension robbery raising national insurance because that hits the poor and gives more money to the rich.
Besides the housing bubble lack of enforcement on big banks allowing utilities to invest abroad and then whine about needing to raise prices by above 5% of inflation as the infrastructure of this country is collapsing.
Research cap on Ni contributions its about £38,000 also not reducing VAT like he said he would. Two people worse than Brown are osbourne and balls
10:42 AM on 03/31/2012
"When will we ever learn?"

You won't I'm afraid if you keep looking inward.

I'm in my 60's and should have been preparing for retirement by now, but that option is long gone.

I suggest a wider look at the world finance system and particularly who is running it!

Can the 'average Joe' do anything? -- Yes. check out this link.

http://pressenza.com/npermalink/icelandx-a-country-that-wants-to-punish-the-bankers-responsible-for-the-crisis
03:10 AM on 03/30/2012
The boys in the City seem to be doing OK.
12:22 AM on 03/30/2012
yes.............
2 and half years of cuts have got us nowhere?
All that has happened is they have stifled all growth that may have occurred in that time with there relentless public sector cuts and cuts to everything not nailed down??
We have no uk owned manufacturing of any real size now ,most here is foreign owned and that includes utilities?
banks are still not lending,and we owe even more than we did before they were elected (which they were not but got in by default?)
now theres more recession which i dont think we have ever been out of in the last three years??
dont you think its time we gave a brand newparty a chance to run this country,its obvious now that the three main ones cant do it anymore,or do we want just more of the same!????

Where is this growth going to come from Mr Osbourne?
12:11 AM on 03/30/2012
What a shock !!!
Fuel prices out of control, the old and infirm suffering fuel poverty and all they worry about is the price of a poxy lukewarm pastry item that generally tastes of nothingness.
The plots gone out the window.
It really doesnt matter what your political persuasions are anymore because politicians constantly prove to the electorate that they cannot be trusted with the future of this country because suprise suprise its all about them.
Until fuel is under control what do we expect. It touches everything whether transport or manufacturing. To make things worse our lives are in the hands of people that get fat wallets on speculating . Utter madness.
Though, we all have the Olympics to look forward to, no, hang on, the press will moan about everything and anything and the unions will do their best to prove that nothing changes in UK plc. Another impending disaster. We'll be a world class laughing stock.
11:05 PM on 03/29/2012
Yet again the doom and gloom merchants come out of the woodwork just as the country shows some signs of moving forward, couple that to the impending doom of no petrol and the cost of a pasty hitting an all time high of £1.00 it is time the last person leaving the country locks the gates and shuts off the lights. Beam us up scotty to a better place on another planet. The lunatics have taken over the asylum!!!!!
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Mickey Mouse 1
There are no lies or deceit on a chess board.
10:28 PM on 03/29/2012
A strong arguement could be made that we never came out of recession in the first place. The Labour government tried to stimulate the economy with various schemes while everyone was looking for "green shoots" of recovery, but those schemes have now all closed.
09:49 PM on 03/29/2012
Well it certainly is not in the fuel business.
09:20 PM on 03/29/2012
Is there anyone outside the clowns in the OBR who is surprised?
08:51 PM on 03/29/2012
FFS when are people going to learn? I keep saying the b*&^%$£e in government keep taxing everything and the public let them away with it. When are we going to stand up for ourselves, we need every man woman and child in the country, to stop these (u*&^%s before they drag us down the sewer, I have said b4 and I’ll say b5 that that’s where were going unless we get the very small handful of (*o*s out of power and get some people in who knows how to handle such large amounts of money.
I can never figure out how they find new ways to tax us while they cut the crap out of our wages/benefits. I’m telling you were going down the swaney unless we get them out now. Look at the b(*&^%is extravagant parties in no 10, plus other agents like the councils spend millions on stupid ideas as well, and we like stupid (*&^%$%$ let them do it. Can somebody get a protest started today and get those in power O U T…
08:45 PM on 03/29/2012
Recession. What else did you expect? Destroy confidence, make people insecure and worried for their jobs. When you start to make nurses, military or the police redundant you know that jobs for life are a thing of the past. Of course those who had more disposable income are now going to save it, just in case. The poorer people, who always live hand to mouth, have less to spend than before and often can't even afford essentials. So we are buying a lot less between us, which makes more businesses go bankrupt putting more on benefits. We seem to be in a downwards spiral and our politicians appear to lack the wit or the will to get us out off it.