Brexit Means...

17/10/2016 12:16

The question what does Brexit mean, is certainty hot news at the moment, but what does Brexit actually mean? Does it mean that Mrs May is using the word to follow the saying simplicity is key? Does it mean that we are actually leaving the European Union? Or does it mean that May has no idea what is happening and is using repetition as a way to keep the leave side relatively happy?

Well I can safely say, not many people, even in politics, understand what Brexit means. Brexit off course relates to the decision for Britain to exit the European Union, which was what the country decided to do on June 23rd (To my dismay of course) however the narrative of Brexit is impossible to understand. I can assume that the leave side were under the impression that leaving the EU would be a relatively straight forward process, I mean they did say "Let's take back control" surely control for the 5th largest economy should be handed effortlessly back to us, how wrong that is.

In fact, European leaders and certainly the vast majority of the establishment at Westminster, the Prime Minister included, did not expect the country to vote leave, therefore Brexit means Brexit, actually means nothing as we have no Plan on what it means, what we will negotiate for and how the process will work.

What's for certain though, is as of earlier this week, the prime minister finally gave an indication as to when she will push the big button, no not the button for trident, but the button to trigger article 50 under the Lisbon treaty.

The road to Brexit seems extremely uncertain, especially with 64 million brits in the back, I can imagine a handful of the country will be sitting in the back asking Mrs May 'are we there yet' of which the response I imagine will be 'I need to work out the route, stop asking, I'll inform you when we get there"

The fact is, with only 150 consultants working on Brexit, the country will have a hard time starting negotiations as if we leave the single market, we will need to negotiate with the world trade organization as to our global position without the EU, then start negotiations with individual countries, which in turn will take a minimum of 18 months according to the WTO recommendations, all happening whilst the pound continues to fall and is the worst performing currency against the dollar globally, (even worse than the Argentina dollar...that's saying something)

As the Brexit narrative continues, it's clear that the new Prime Minister, Theresa May is under immense pressure. The financial institutions, the European Union, over 2 million EU migrants, world leaders and business leaders a-like all wait in anticipation as to what Brexit will actually mean for them and their interests. What you should note though, after the PM's speech at the party conference, which emphasized that "if you're a citizen of the world, you're a citizen of no-where" this will create difficulty for Britain as the European Union will no doubt be clear that if we want a free trade agreement, immigration cannot be cut and therefore the saying 'take back control' we will have to see what control we indeed take back, if anything ...

The final point to make is of the approach Mrs May put forward regarding her broad agenda to open Britain to the world beyond the EU--which she calls "Global Britain". In theory this should entail a willingness to welcome international capital and labor, which would benefit the country whatever its relations with the EU. Sadly, the reality looks less rosy. The home secretary, Amber Rudd, this week complained that some companies were employing too many foreigners and talked about "flushing out" the worst offenders. Likewise, Mrs May's conference rhetoric was strikingly interventionist, putting the state at the heart of the economy. A flirtation with industrial policy sounds worryingly as if it is designed to keep foreigners out.

Oh and I suppose the £350M to be spent on the NHS, we will have to see if that does indeed materialize into actual investment, no doubt I'm sure it won't, and Boris Johnson will have his head placed on NHS cheques, billed for £350M.

A Brexit of some sort looms and Mrs May will determine its course. If Britain is not to suffer a car crash, she must ignore the back-seat drivers and fix her eyes firmly on the road ahead.