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Iain Anderson

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Double Dipping - It's Confidence That's Key to Growing GDP

Posted: 25/04/2012 12:21

So Britain is having its first double dip recession since the early 1970s.

For most of us 'double dipping' is a brand new phenomenon but, as consumers, sluggish to no growth feels just about where the economy has been since the financial crisis hit hard in 2008.

Of course over the past four years we have had some significant periods of more positive economic territory - the third quarter of 2010 saw 0.7% growth and the same quarter in 2011 saw a 0.6% uplift but not enough growth to improve consumer sentiment at a time of house price and job insecurity.

And it is that concept of confidence that is so vital for any economy.

The GDP news coming hard on the heels of the ongoing #omnishambles around the government right now is clearly not helpful towards personal or corporate confidence levels.

Much has been made of the record £750bn stuck on UK corporate balance sheets in cash. This number has grown steadily in the past ten years but has mushroomed since 2007. This is a clear sign that business remains very wary of the domestic and wider global economic situation - to be fair it is not just the UK.

In the US and Asia, territories where I spend an increasingly amount of my time, there appears to be greater confidence among business right now which is reflecting itself in their respective economic growth numbers.

The Chancellor is right to point to the ongoing uncertainties in the eurozone as a brake on UK growth. Last week I was in Washington in advance of the IMF Spring Meetings and I can testify to the same concerns about eurozone instability there.

I don't believe the UK needs a Plan B. Addressing the deficit is the fundamental reason why the UK remains a great place to invest. But, and it is a big BUT, I don't believe the government is both articulating and implementing its plans for getting the economy going fast enough.

UK infrastructure is a key example of this. In the autumn the government announced plans to create mechanisms to unlock pension fund investment into major new capital projects. From all I hear from the participants in these plans - progress is moving at a snails pace.

This is just one example - there are countless others.

The government needs to focus on policies to create confidence - not just for consumers to spend but for businesses to invest. In both cases incentivising this to take place without excessive debt levels once again.

Unleashing confidence is the key to unlocking greater growth - the government needs more focus and more urgency on just that.

 

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So Britain is having its first double dip recession since the early 1970s. For most of us 'double dipping' is a brand new phenomenon but, as consumers, sluggish to no growth feels just about where t...
So Britain is having its first double dip recession since the early 1970s. For most of us 'double dipping' is a brand new phenomenon but, as consumers, sluggish to no growth feels just about where t...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
mediumal57
Moderate Extremist
11:59 PM on 04/27/2012
I agree with a lot of the above. But first the politicians must ween themselves off this obsession with what the City Traders do. Financial speculators are largely responsible for this economic mess we're currently in. That coupled with weak and ineffective regulation by all Western Governments on their more reckless activities. There have been plenty of warning signals over the past few years: Bearings Bank; Enron etc... More than enough alarm bells in fact, signalling that all was not well with the system These and other strains, which should have produced far more scrutiny than appears to have occurred.

Consumer confidence will only come when we are all spending again and there's plenty of work to provide the jobs and incomes enabling us to do so. The trouble with the solutions proposed by this present Government here in the UK are that they resemble somewhat the remedies of medieval doctors who believed in such ignorant procedures like bleeding their patients in order to allegedly make them well.
10:58 AM on 04/26/2012
So many of our politicians still do not understand that the record price of petrol & diesel is a major factor in putting us back in recession. Worse still, the Government remains committed to its plan to add a further 3p a litre in fuel tax this summer. To go ahead with that increase in these circumstances is economic madness
12:02 AM on 04/26/2012
I don't believe the UK needs a Plan B. Addressing the deficit is the fundamental reason why the UK remains a great place to invest.
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So, where is it?
Look at life-cycle of refineries and petrochemical plants around the world. Many are in their third decade, so now is a great time to capture market share by building state of the art plant.

Best place to build? A location with experience in chemicals, near oil extraction.Like the North-East of England from Newcastle to Sunderland. Let's get a dozen joint ventures going with major corporations and government. Then we can move to developing downstream industries in further processing and manufacturing. Associate businesses will develop in products and services.

That is what I would like to see. What is the Cicero Group vision?
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Ben Wilson
What's the story mourning Tories?
01:47 PM on 04/25/2012
Confidence is long way off, and false confidence a back door to ill advised borrowing I suspect. I think the systems flaws are plentiful & shining so bright, we need solutions and assurances the same mistakes won't be repeated, and i think most of the world agrees this is the rich mans mess and he's got to foot the bill. We can't afford to bail out wreckless buisness men and we don't see why they should get away with it when we have the law slammed on us for the smallest infraction in tax or benefitts. Amazing how everything is against the law for us, while every thing they do wrong is perfectly legal or just bending the law and not exactly punishable.