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Jon-Christopher Bua

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Republican Primaries: Guess What Folks? This Could Be It

Posted: 15/01/2012 18:27

As the first Republican presidential candidate - except for a sitting president - to sweep both Iowa and New Hampshire, Mitt Romney seems poised to capture South Carolina this Saturday and go on to win the nomination of his party.

No Republican presidential candidate except for a sitting president, has ever won all three of these primaries in a row.

That's what we call in New York racing parlance a "Tri-fecta."

However, this will not happen before a bloody battle ensues spearheaded by Christian Conservatives and the relentless Tea Party led into battle by their standard bearer Ron Paul.

Perhaps not since the crusades and the reign of Saladin in the 12th century will so much blood be spilled to assure one man's demise.

In this modern day 'crusade' the target of their vigorously hurled swords and arrows will be one man - the so called 'flip-flopping, eastern-elite-mormon presidential candidate', governor Mitt Romney.

The Christian Conservatives aligned with the Tea Party have put out a 'defeat warrant' on Mitt 'no blue collar in his closet' Romney and they seem to be willing to go to any length to see he does not get the nomination.

A group of Christian Conservative activists and leaders decided just this Saturday in Texas to throw their support ironically behind Roman Catholic Rick Santorum in the battle for the Republican presidential nomination.

Tony Perkins, the president of the Family Research Council and a spokesman for the group of 150 activists, said that a "strong consensus" emerged for the former Pennsylvania senator after a three-ballot process.

Perkins was clear in his message and said that Santorum got more than two-thirds support from the activists in the final ballot, in which he was challenged only by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and governor Rick Perry of Texas.

Ultimately, Perkins suggested that the desire to defeat President Obama had helped push the group toward a decision.

Perkins said: "We don't need to just change jerseys. We need to change the way we do business."

It seems they have picked what they believe is the best retail campaigner with the least personal baggage to be their conservative choice.

However, this unified endorsement by some activist in the Evangelical Community is no guarantee that individual Evangelical Christians who support Gingrich or Perry will abandon their candidate and simply fall in line and vote for Santorum.

The Romney Camp must be applauding this choice since they clearly view Santorum as a weaker challenger than Gingrich.

Santorum has no executive experience and went down in his last Senate race in a resounding defeat in Pennsylvania - he also had a very weak showing in New Hampshire this week.

Santorum is currently running his campaign on a shoe string and has little national organisation in place in the upcoming primary states.

As an example, just yesterday, the important swing state of Virginia upheld its decision not to include Santorum, Gingrich Huntsman or Perry on their primary ballot which now only includes Romney and Paul.

In the last two contests the combined 'non- Romney vote' (which included the Ron Paul Tea Party vote) exceeded Romney's overall victory percentage.

Although Ron Paul's selection was not even an afterthought at this Christian Conservative meeting in Texas, DO NOT count Paul and his Tea Party faithful out of this year's battle for the hearts and minds of the conservative movement.

If you think the Tea Party is over it is time to pour yourself another cup.

Ron Paul, whose supporters are mainly under 30, has tapped into a very strong sentiment which is not going away.

Paul's libertarian ideas greatly appeal to both the Tea Party and OWS supporters.

Despite some of his more unconventional ideas, Paul's anti-war stance has struck a real chord especially with young voters who are the children, and in some cases the grandchildren, of the Vietnam generation.

They express a legitimate concern that the 'war on terror' which could go on forever drains the US coffers and human resources.

They also see no end to the spending of trillions of dollars supporting the military industrial complex while leaving no money for them to build their future.

These young voters are engaged, concerned and have no intention of going away or falling in line with the evangelical Republican choice.

Its a long way to Tampa and the Republican National Convention where Paul & Co have the potential to dominate the message and get their own plank in the GOP Platform.

Even if the Evangelical Christian wing of the Republican Party gets behind Santorum, the Ron Paul supporters are likely to maintain their split - which continues to work in Romney's favor.

This battle also continues on the air ways as SuperPACS dominate and take control of the candidates highly negative messages (see my Washington Notebook blog Iowa's Mixed Messages).

The gauntlets will be thrown down and the fur will fly at the GOP Debates on both Monday in Myrtle Beach SC and Thursday in Charleston SC as candidates Santorum, Gingrich, Perry and Huntsman hurl whatever they can find to fatally wound Mitt and stop the inevitable, before he captures the Palmetto State on his way to Florida next week and a solid nomination victory.

As New York Yankee legend Yogi Berra was fond of saying, "it ain't over till its over."

Well, guess what folks? As I have seen up close and personal in both Iowa and New Hampshire, Mitt Romney's war chest is overflowing with piles of cash and this does not even include the SuperPACs spending to support his nomination.

His campaign machine is extraordinarily deep with a real national organisation and key operatives in every primary state.

It is a polished, committed and well-oiled machine and a daunting obstacle to overcome.

So assuming Romney chalks up another victory in South Carolina, I will add to my favourite NY Yankee's quote..."Its Over."

This blog can also be read on Sky News

 
As the first Republican presidential candidate - except for a sitting president - to sweep both Iowa and New Hampshire, Mitt Romney seems poised to capture South Carolina this Saturday and go on to wi...
As the first Republican presidential candidate - except for a sitting president - to sweep both Iowa and New Hampshire, Mitt Romney seems poised to capture South Carolina this Saturday and go on to wi...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
midwestgirl1960
03:36 PM on 01/16/2012
Yes but what the young who keep going for Paul seem to forget he hates the government more than them and those grants they use for that higher education are not gonna be there. Paul is of the group it is all about me myself and it is all mine mentality.

So those college grants are gone and public education is gone, food stamps are gone, healthcare is gone and you will have to do it all only our own.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ekstatik
Granfalloon-free!
06:31 AM on 01/16/2012
"...lead into battle by their standard bearer Ron Paul."
The past participle of lead is led.
05:44 AM on 01/16/2012
The reason that the evangelicals do not support Paul, is because he is a realist when it comes to politics and abortion. He says the truth! A ban on abortion would be unconstitutional.

But they do not want to be told the truth. They like to be lied to by every politician since Reagan, and told that they will get a ban. When will this part of the republican party wake up and accept reality?

The funny thing is.....I think Paul shares their views personally, as he abhors abortion. But he knows the difference between personal feelings and politics.

Basically, Ron Paul is honest.....and they do not like it.
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Hoodooman
Non-Aggression Principle
05:08 AM on 01/16/2012
The rest of our states have something to say about it.

Ron Paul 2012!
10:13 AM on 01/16/2012
It will never happen. He says too many nutty things. Things that belong in the 18th century.
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Hoodooman
Non-Aggression Principle
05:30 PM on 01/16/2012
That's just linear thinking which limits itself to what others deem to be "modern".
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Carl Caroli
I just don't understand people
04:36 AM on 01/16/2012
"It is a polished, committed and well-oiled machine and a daunting obstacle to overcome."
Sounds like the Wall St. banking cleptocracy to me.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Chris1962
NYC
12:00 AM on 01/16/2012
>>>However, this will not happen before a bloody battle ensues spearheaded by Christian Conservatives and the relentless Tea Party lead into battle by their standard bearer Ron Paul.>>> Since when did Tea Partiers designate Ron Paul as their standard bearer?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Carl Caroli
I just don't understand people
04:36 AM on 01/16/2012
I don't believe he resonates with the OWS mindset that well either.
This comment has been removed.
07:56 PM on 01/15/2012
Lawyers continue to occupy high public office (senate, congress & WHITE HOUSE)

Call the doctor --- RON PAUL 2012 ---
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
refuse2fail
03:37 AM on 01/16/2012
Ron Paul in 2012 = Liberty
This comment has been removed.
07:33 PM on 01/15/2012
Paul is the only Evangelical Christian in the race with a chance to win at this point. Ron Paul is in second place nationally, and if religion matters to certain Evangelicals, he is certainly their best choice. He does seem to be the most in tune with Christ's teachings: married 50 years, the most honest man in Washington, sticking to principles when everyone around you suggests you do evil, teaching people to stand on their own, and leading us to want to be charitable to others and do the right things toward them, rather than forcing us to do either. He doesn't just talk about being a good Christian, he acts as a Christian should act. He doesn't promise that he will use government programs to force people to be more Christian, but he demonstrates Christian values, and does so better than anyone else running, and better than many of our preachers today really. Sadly, many of our preachers today are so interested in politics that they nearly give up on the teachings of Jesus to work on political efforts.

Though it may seem that Paul has a mean streak in his tone, that streak is much more inline with Jesus cleansing the Temple of its money changers. Others in the race have a different sort of anger, and it is more related to bitterness.
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