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Cameron Taking UK out of Europe without a referendum?

Posted: 9/12/2011 15:59

When the 'make or break' summit to save the euro finished in Brussels on Friday afternoon, David Cameron headed rapidly for the exit without the traditional end of summit press conference (making do, unusually, with only an interim pre-dawn one as the leaders stumbled out from their almost ten hours overnight talks for a short break before breakfast).

As the dust settles from this critical summit, the gap between the UK and other European countries has never been wider, nor the UK's influence closer to zero. As Tory sceptics applaud what any sane observer would call a major foreign policy disaster, could it be that Cameron is in the process of taking the UK out of the EU without a referendum?

German leader Angela Merkel did give an end of summit press conference, answering questions, in a room overflowing with European and international journalists, about the outcomes of the summit, including the UK's marginalisation. 23 of the EU member states agreed at a marathon overnight session to sign up to a host of measures to contain the euro crisis through a new legal treaty committing to greater budgetary discipline including balanced budgets, quasi-automatic sanctions and a strong interventionist role for the European Commission. As Angela Merkel explained, only the UK - out of the four countries not immediately signing up - clearly distanced itself from this (while Sweden, the Czech Republic and Hungary will consult their parliaments before deciding).

But the UK did more than distance itself, it essentially used its veto to stop the other 23 member states revising the EU's treaties - something which needs all 27 members - even though the agreements on tighter fiscal coordination would not have applied to the UK.

Cameron, playing a weak hand, thought he could force concessions from Merkel, Sarkozy and others, and failed miserably. But covering his failure by forcing the other member states to agree a new treaty outside of the EU - which is what they have committed to do by March next year - is a spectacular own goal. The UK has been left with no allies in the EU and precious little good will - and while in some quarters there is irritation and antagonism, mostly the UK is now so marginalised it is seen simply as increasingly irrelevant.

With 23 member states - possibly all 26 - ready to sign a separate treaty, there will effectively be a parallel organisation, EU-23+ which the UK will have absolutely no influence on at all. It is no longer a question of two-speed Europe: it is the UK out on a limb, a large Norway, though with much less good will from other European countries than Norway can count on.

Predictably the eurosceptic press and backbenchers are overjoyed. But perhaps one positive outcome of the UK now having the weakest political influence, and most ineffective political strategy, of any point in time of its 38 years of EU membership, will be that we can now have a serious British debate about this.

In their 18 months in government, the coalition - LibDems too - have presided over a steady decline in the UK's influence and role in Europe, despite the UK being one of the biggest three member states by population and size of economy, and despite the euro crisis imperilling the UK too. As Merkel said we are all in the same boat. If the euro implodes, the UK will be as damaged as any other country by the economic and political shockwaves - but Cameron, and Clegg, have chosen to sit on the sidelines admonishing Merkel and Sarkozy.

The UK's diminishing role in the EU had been largely invisible in British politics and media until this summit. But now it is out there in capital letters. And despite the noisy tory backbenchers, the complicity of Nick Clegg and the invisibility of Ed Miliband, there are plenty of people in the UK who welcome being in the EU, able to travel, and work, and set up businesses, trade freely, influence EU foreign policy and climate change policies - who will not want the UK to be a small cut off island on the edge of the continent, with no influence in Europe let alone the wider world.

The Tory sceptics have been calling for a referendum. So the pro-Europeans should rise to this challenge. Cameron has taken the UK almost to the exit door of the EU with no debate and no consultation. A real public debate about the pros and cons of staying in the EU - including not stymieing the efforts of fellow member states in the midst of deep crisis - can perhaps rescue the UK from this foreign policy folly. Some will say who would vote for the EU in the midst of such a crisis. But if the euro survives - and today's summit shows the political will of the other 26 member states that it should survive - then the EU will rebound. So does the UK want to be a serious player in that EU or not? And if the euro collapses, the political as well as economic shockwaves will be huge - but the UK's behaviour at this summit and over the course of the crisis will ensure it is not an influential voice in trying to build cooperation out of the wreckage the failure of the euro would bring.

The big story for now remains the euro crisis. The UK is a sideshow in EU politics - it's time we decided if that is all we want to be.

 
When the 'make or break' summit to save the euro finished in Brussels on Friday afternoon, David Cameron headed rapidly for the exit without the traditional end of summit press conference (making do, ...
When the 'make or break' summit to save the euro finished in Brussels on Friday afternoon, David Cameron headed rapidly for the exit without the traditional end of summit press conference (making do, ...
 
 
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12:27 AM on 12/13/2011
The arithmetic of the Eurodebt is much bleaker than the politicians & Eurocrats understand, & all the major European currencies are overvalued (on a purchasing parity basis), undermining economic competitiveness & therefore also creditworthiness. Unless the Eurozone can genuinely limit the now unlimited moral hazard, starting by expelling disingenuous Greece as a real example to the others, they will have no credibility (think Lehman) in the bond markets. Cameron was right to not to want to be a part of a herd that may be stampeding off a cliff but not for the reasons he gave publicly (protection of the professional speculators of the City).
06:19 PM on 12/10/2011
Does this mean British people won't be able to live and work in other European countries without some kind of visa, in the future?
06:15 PM on 12/10/2011
Obviously Kirsty has her own interests to look after being a European & International politics commentator, but whether we stay or go it needs deciding by the people sooner rather than later. The majority of the British public see no benefit of the EU. The ability to move within the continent, set up business and trade, affects probably 1% of the population, the rest of us, through being members have no funds to buy the weekly shop, yet while trading within the commonwealth and Europe we all seemed to have plenty spare cash, not to mention real friends abroad.
What do we have now after crapping on our commonwealth cousins, no cheap meat for a start, then theres the added bonus of the new friends, Germany, who we've teed off twice in a century by thwarting their plans of world dominance, though they have got Europe now by the short n curlies, and, then theres our nearest chums France, who, absobloodylutely hate England and the English and tell our PM to "shut up" when not allowing this country of armpit hair warriors free reign in their socialist quest to partner east germany in ripping off the other EU "states" So, whether Kirsty thinks Europe has a massive following or not in this country I lay odds on a referendum assuring her, that the British public would have us out tomorrow if that could be the case, which is the real reason behind denying us our rights. 20 to 1 for
08:58 AM on 12/10/2011
Well done Dave, it's a start, although I really do think Mr Cameron has alternative ideas for his actions, which is the City of London finances. I still feel that we should have a referendum. On last nights Question time the referendum question was asked, and one audience member had a simple answer, he said that politicians do not want us to vote, as we would not vote the way that they think we should vote, the other point made was that we better prepare for two referendums, because we would be forced to have another referendum because the politicians would not like the result that they would get from the first. ( Norway rings a bell) Are there any odds available on when we will eventually dump the pound in favour of the Euro?If we stay part of the EU it's a dot on the cards that this will be the next thing our French and Germans friends would want.
07:45 PM on 12/09/2011
Ok first of all political leaders and elites in Europe since Monet and Schuman have always wanted political union. Shcuman's plan was designed to achieve this gradually by having functional spillover of competencies from European Coal and Steel Community. The European public at large has little appetite for this. In 1992 the French almost rejected Maastricht in a referendum (51% Yes) while Ireland has twice rejected EU treaties only to be told it had to hold them again and secure a 'Yes' or face economic consequences. Germans were never given a chance to vote on whether they wanted to ditch the deutschmark (most polls showed they would have kept it). Ignoring the democratic process will only add to the extremism gorwing in Europe. In France the Far Right under Marine Le Penn wants France to leave the Euro, while Umberto Rossi's Northern League in Italy is far from a Euro-enthusiast.

Britain is not alone in having Euro-sceptic voices. Yes in Britain they are stronger which is why Cameron had little choice but to veto the treaty. However if you were to poll most Greeks would they vote for fiscal discipline imposed by Berlin? I doubt it. If Europhiles are so confident in their dream of a federal european superstate let all 27 countries hold a referendum on it.
05:57 PM on 12/09/2011
France and Germany have never wanted the UK to be a strong part of Europe. We have always been the country taken advantage of. Since they import so much into the UK and since they charge us so much for being part of the EU, it's actually in their interest that we stay more than it is ours.
Take finances: Greece contributes 15 billion a year to the EU and receives 40 billion back. Spain contributes 76 billion a year to the EU and gets 78 billion back, the Republic of Ireland contributes 11 billion annually and receives 12billion back, the UK contributes 103 billion a year but only gets 46 back.
So Greece actually receives 25 billion a year, Spain receives 2 billion a year and Ireland receives 1 billion a year while Britain loses 57 billion a year.
Not only are we the biggest payers after Germany (France gets a huge feedback from CAP), but the EU wants even more from us and wants to get rid of our rebate, which was originally agreed on for fairness.
In 2008 it was calculated that being a member of the EU cost Britain £65 billion a year when the cost of businesses applying EU regulations, the additional food costs of CAP and the loss caused by the EU allowing other countries to fish in our waters is taken into consideration.
04:24 AM on 12/10/2011
Well said,British people are too soft and over the years All the European countries have taken too much advantage from UK.It about time uk is out of the mess,Best Decision David Cameron has taken.GET OUT OF IT NOW OR ELSE WE WILL SINK IN IT MORE AND MORE.Noone ever help Britain but we are forver paying everyones else debts.
WELL DONE DAVID CAMERON.
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05:32 PM on 12/09/2011
From a policy point of view, it is not clear you cannot effectively have monetary union and fiscal union and economic union without political union.

A referendum may be coming down the pike that calls for a United States of Europe or out totally. Britain could join EFTA with Norway and Switzerland and seek a simple free trade deal with Europe. Britain could join NAFTA. Or Britain may vote to join the United States of Europe.

All of that is for Britain to decide. Interesting times ahead.

Ancient Chinese curse - "May you live in interesting times."
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03:48 AM on 12/11/2011
As a commenter in the US I don't really understand all the issues being debated here. On one issue I can voice an opinion. You definitely DO NOT want to join NAFTA.