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Finally! Exposed! The Deficit Myth! So, David Cameron When Are You Going to Apologise?

Posted: 24/10/2012 07:33

"A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on"
- Winston Churchill

As a Conservative I have no pleasure in exposing David Cameron's deficit claims. However, as long as the party continues to talk down the economy via the blame game, confidence will not be given an opportunity to return. For it is an undeniable and inescapable economic fact: without confidence and certainty there can be no real growth.

Below are the three deficit claims - the mess. The evidence comes from the IMF, OECD, OBR, HM Treasury, ONS and even George Osborne. The claims put into context are:

CLAIM 1
The last government left the biggest debt in the developed world.

After continuously stating the UK had the biggest debt in the world George Osborne admits to the Treasury Select Committee that he did not know the UK had the lowest debt in the G7? Watch: Also, confirmed by the OECD Those who use cash terms (instead of percentages) do so to scare, mislead and give half the story.

Its common sense, in cash terms a millionaire's debt would be greater than most people. Therefore, the UK would have a higher debt and deficit than most countries because, we are the sixth largest economy. Hence, its laughable to compare UK's debt and deficit with Tuvalu's who only have a GDP/Income of £24 million whilst, the UK's income is £1.7 Trillion.

Finally, Labour in 1997 inherited a debt of 42% of GDP. By the start of the global banking crises 2008 the debt had fallen to 35% - a near 22% reduction page 6 ONS Surprisingly, a debt of 42% was not seen as a major problem and yet at 35% the sky was falling down?

CLAIM 2
Labour created the biggest deficit in the developed world by overspending.

Firstly, the much banded about 2010 deficit of over 11% is false. This is the PSNB (total borrowings) and not the actual budget deficit which was -7.7% - OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook March 2012 page 19 table 1.2

Secondly, in 1997 Labour inherited a deficit of 3.9% of GDP (not a balanced budget ) and by 2008 it had fallen to 2.1% - a reduction of a near 50% - Impressive! Hence, it's implausible and ludicrous to claim there was overspending. The deficit was then exacerbated by the global banking crises after 2008. See HM Treasury. Note, the 1994 deficit of near 8% haaaaaah!

Thirdly, the IMF have also concluded the same. They reveal the UK experienced an increase in the deficit as result of a large loss in output/GDP caused by the global banking crisis and not even as result of the bank bailouts, fiscal stimulus and bringing forward of capital spending. It's basic economics: when output falls the deficit increases.

Finally, the large loss in output occurred because the UK like the US have the biggest financial centres and as this was a global banking crises we suffered the most. Hence, the UK had the 2nd highest deficit in the G7 (Not The World) after the US and not as a result of overspending prior to and after 2008- as the IMF concur.

CLAIM 3
Our borrowing costs are low because the markets have confidence in George Osborne's austerity plan and without it the UK will end up like Greece.

Yes, the markets have confidence in our austerity plan and that's why PIMCO the worlds largest bond holder have been warning against buying UK debt.

The real reason why our borrowing costs have fallen and remained low since 2008 is because, savings have increased. As a result, the demand and price for bonds have increased and as there is inverse relationship between the price of bonds and its yield (interest rate) the rates have fallen. Also, the markets expect the economy to remain stagnate. Which means the price for bonds will remain high and hence, our borrowing costs will also remain low.

Secondly, the UK is considered a safe heaven because, investors are reassured the Bank of England will buy up bonds in an event of any sell off - which increases the price of bonds and reduces the effective rate. Note, how rates fell across the EU recently when the ECB announced its bond buying program. Thirdly, because, we are not in the Euro we can devalue our currency to increase exports. Moreover, UK bonds are attractive because, we haven't defaulted on its debt for over 300 years.

David Cameron would like people to believe the markets lend in the same way as retail banks lend to you and I.

Overall, when the facts and figures are put into context these juvenile deficit narratives and sound bites ("mere words and no evidence") simply fail to stand up to the actual facts. The deficit myth is the grosses lie ever enforced upon the people and it has been sold by exploiting people's economic illiteracy.

So, David Cameron when are you going to apologise?

Cameron is playing the blame game to depress confidence and growth to justify austerity. Secondly, to use austerity as justification for a smaller state to gain lower taxes. Thirdly, to paint Labour as a party that can not be trusted with the country's finances again. Therefore, we Conservatives will win a second term because, people vote out of fear. The latter strategy worked the last time in office (18 years) and will work again because, in the end, elections are won and lost on economic credibility. Hence, as people believe Labour created the mess they won't be trusted again.

Finally, as the truth is the greatest enemy of the a lie I urge you to share this on Facebook, Twitter, blogs, text and email etc etc. So the truth can be discovered by all. Finally, have no doubt, people have been mislead by the use of the following strategy:

"If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it" Joseph Goebbels

 
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"A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on" - Winston Churchill As a Conservative I have no pleasure in exposing David Cameron's deficit claims. However, a...
"A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on" - Winston Churchill As a Conservative I have no pleasure in exposing David Cameron's deficit claims. However, a...
 
 
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08:16 PM on 12/19/2012
No worries. The owner of a launderette in Northfleet Kent has found a way to get Britain on its feet again. He has just raised his prices by 16.6% following an increase of 19.5% same time last year. His message to Brtish business? - Raise your prices and the customer will take you out of recession!
03:06 PM on 12/19/2012
2 questions, or just completely different viewpoints;
1. Why is debt a good thing (individual or country)? It's not in my mind. You noted correctly savings are going up as people (maybe out of lost confidence) finally start shoring up and thinking about their future in a more responsible fashion. This is a great result - no more living on credit and thinking someone else will foot the bill when you retire/go bankrupt. In my opinion, we can argue all day long about the size of the debt, the fact we have it at all is gross mismanagement for a country like ours.
2. Reducing the size of the State, and as a result the amount of Tax people pay. Perfect.
These are both laudible aims by David Cameron.
04:21 PM on 12/19/2012
Debt isn't a good thing as such, neither is it intrinsically bad.

For businesses the main reason to embrace debt is that it increases the potential working capital you can invest. If you are confident you can take that £50k at 10% interest and invest it to make a 20% profit then as a business it is worth doing.

A country is the same in many ways as a business, money is borrowed to create an infrastructure that will allow commerce and business to flourish and thus promote quicker growth

Individuals can take the same outlook of course but more often than not debt to the individual is all about having something sooner and thus gaining from it in non-monetary ways.
07:07 PM on 12/18/2012
Hey what about basic value for money politics. Why didn't the last government get better deals from those companies who built buildings under PFI? What about the huge hole in the defence budget? Most ordinary folks want our politicians to spend our money carefully.I worked in education for many years and saw the most awful waste of money going on through successive governments.And yes the money wasn't wasted on educating children..No it was on bureaucracy and monstrous amounts of paper.I want politicians to build up surpluses in the good times.. How complicated is good governance and spending? Let's be honest we've borrowed too much money and now we have to pay some of it off.
02:15 PM on 12/11/2012
It's strange us Labour supporters have been saying this all the way along.
The tories are in power to look after the rich 10% of this country,and the rest of us will have to pay for it.
Bennifit's will be cut,NHS will be sold bit by bit,pensioner,s will pay more tax,the rich will get more tax breaks etc.
Under thatcher the tories scrapped our heavey industry,now they are back to put the working class back in their place,under the soles of their shoes.
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angelneptustar
Tory, movie and sports fan.
08:28 PM on 12/08/2012
Mehdi Hasan's remarks should be carefully checked. He did not tell the truth about the government position on the Leveson Inquiry. http://cyberboris.wordpress.com/2012/12/04/blatant-bias-on-itvs-daybreak-again/

Details of how Gordon Brown overspent are here. http://www.thecommentator.com/article/1635/cheering_for_gordon_brown_

http://cyberboris.wordpress.com/2012/10/26/ed-balls-blatant-fibs-on-the-deficit-revealed-by-neil-and-the-speccie-truly-shocking/ Ed Balls was forced to admit his lies over the deficit on this link, Video of Ed and Andrew Neil. If you print this comment, will be surprised!
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Ramesh Patel
01:52 AM on 12/09/2012
I read Boris's article. It has nothing to do with this article. Also, as economist I can't take what people say as fact unless backed up by real data by the ONS, IMF & OECD etc etc. Boris can say the sky is brown on TV or in an article but it doesn't mean its true. Also, it is easy to mislead people by giving examples in cash terms because they don't mean anything other than a change in number. It has to be done as a percentage of GDP. You can use total spending but you must first state what total spending represents as a percentage of GDP. Then state what ever variable you want as percentage of total spending ie welfare as a % of total spending. Secondly, it is misleading to only take a few yrs or only 1 or 2 yrs as an example of increased spending. What matters is what happened over the whole period 1997- 2010. However, if there is down turn in that period then you have to take it into account because all down turns effect the main economic indicators- unemployment, spending, receipts, GDP & deficit. As for the two famous interviews betweem Neil, Marr and Balls. The question is not about the deficit it is about the structural deficit. Lucky for you around about the 15th of December I will publish an article exposing the whole of the structural deficit- completley. However, yours is the best comment and question so far
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angelneptustar
Tory, movie and sports fan.
10:48 AM on 12/11/2012
I don't know what Boris article you are talking about, can't recall referring to a Boris article.

I note neither you nor Mehdi Hasan has any comment re. his awful fib about David Cameron's reasons for opposing press law on #daybreak. I told the programme how biased its political reporting was.

I deal with the GDP question in full through the second link i gave you - since Gordon Brown was not operating at a time of dire credit crunch, it is nothing short of scandalous that when he left office there was a structural deficit of £73 billion, immigration out of control, education ruined, foreign policy disastrous, PC correctness ludicrous, etc. Re. GDP. I quote:

"This was the coalition government’s inheritance courtesy of the Labour Party. British government debt was increasing at the rate of £420 million per day, or £5,000 per second, on its way to a projected figure of almost 80 percent of GDP, a figure not seen for fifty years as Britain paid off the costs of World War Two." GDP rose to nearly 80%!!!!

The blog I wrote refers to the structural deficit, I just didn't put structural in the headline, so that is the third thing you have got wrong.

Unluckily for you, i will probably write a blog exposing you and Mehdi Hasan,and widely publicise it. If anyone knows about misleading people it is you and Mehdi Hasan.
02:17 PM on 12/11/2012
Your last name would not be thatcher by any chance?
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angelneptustar
Tory, movie and sports fan.
07:38 PM on 12/11/2012
Thank you. Huge compliment.
lastpost
see biography
04:55 PM on 12/07/2012
“Finally! Exposed! The Deficit Myth!
When Are You Going to Apologise?”
Be fair. He got it off the Interweb.

“before the truth has a chance to get its pants on"
potential discovery is coming up the stairs, on the trail of flagrant infidelity.

“As a Conservative I have no pleasure”
The first reported case of trickle up austerity.

“no real growth”
Except in the illusion that, the economy with bubbles in it is best.

“The last government left the biggest debt in the developed world.”
Atop a mountain of banking sector liabilities?

“he did not know the UK had the lowest debt in the G7”
I blame the education system. Employers are always complaining that potential employees are not conversant with those basic requirements needed.

“in cash terms a millionaire's debt would”
not include a tax component. Unless all avoidance schemes had to be submitted to the authorities and sanctioned by them, before they could be offered to clients. Otherwise it’s a bit like the hunt issuing the fox an Uzi.

“Labour created the biggest deficit in the developed world by”
investing a fund of trust in hopelessly derivative concepts?

“Our borrowing costs are low because the markets”
need cheap money to gamble with, and in turn keep open the casino in which such risky business is permitted?

"If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it”
its going to be fine. Until the polly filler turns up.

“Joseph Goebbels”
Patron Saint of political rhetoric.
05:16 PM on 12/06/2012
Mr Patel has fallen into the same trap as Gordon Brown. The biggest fiscal lesson being learnt from the last 7 years is that simply looking at one year's deficit in isolation serves no purpose. In even a shallow analysis, SOME ATTEMPT MUST BE MADE TO NORMALISE GOV'T REVENUES. Adjusting for booming tax revenues, notably from finance, property and the consumer borrowing boom, the deficits of Labour's latter years were materially higher, and probably high single digit. (Isn't this the Keynesian point? - the government has to run surpluses in abnormal boom years both to fund future deficits AND to ensure the swing into deficit will be manageable, to avoid precisely the fiscal tightening the government has been attempting.)
And Mr Patel essentially makes the point for Mr Cameron - the UK's tax take in the booming noughties was heavily financial services-driven, which is precisely one of the key reasons the UK should have been running significant surpluses.
Please do not follow Mr Patel's desire and forward this article to anyone. It deserves a radical re-write as I'm sure there's some good myth de-bunking to be done.
12:27 PM on 12/05/2012
"PSNB (total borrowings)" does not include off balance sheet borrowing like PFI, it was Labour government policy to reduce PSNB by moving borrowings off balance sheet -- thus it looked better than it was.

Ask Enron about off balance sheet vehicles.
07:35 PM on 12/19/2012
Thanks for saying that... was infuriating me that there was no mention of the not-so-clever accounting practices in the article that make 1997 and 2008 an apples and pears comparison. Poor from an economist, what I'd expect from a biased journalist.
Richard Britton
British Socialist Global Realist
11:30 AM on 12/05/2012
the economic measures taken since this government took power have patently failed by it's own measures and any claim that it is the only choice we have is clearly false

it has to be false because the results are so poor compared to other nations
08:47 AM on 12/05/2012
The only real solution is to increase export income from manufactured goods and financial products.
So we should be doing everything we can to support new start ups that have new ''exportable'' products protected by patents.
The world desalination market is worth $100 billion p.a.
According to the F.T. Saudi Arabia burns one third of it's oil production to power it's desalination needs.
The world's first practical Direct Solar Powered Desalination Plant was invented in the UK in 2010 which won a major award at the Oxford Venturefest that year. (solaqua.info)
The company that owns the patents is scratching around for a small amount of cash to fund development trials at The Solar Research Lab, Cardiff University.
The company could export £billions and employ thousands.
To date the UK Gov has not provided one single penny of support and at the same time is spending £2 billion to fund windmills in Africa.
The mind boggles....
12:09 PM on 12/04/2012
Austerity is needed to reduce the deficit is the 4th myth you missed. Reading HMRC's Tax Gap publication, you can see that collecting the tax which is avoided/evaded would clear the deficit in under 3 years. Likewise sorting out the written off billions in overpayments (every year) from the working family tax credit system would help.

By the ideological goal of small government is too tempting isn't it?
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Ramesh Patel
05:09 PM on 12/05/2012
Thank you for your comment daddacool Osborne's austerity claims are investigated in my second article http://huff.to/RML5W3 He has based based it on proverbs, idiom and nonsense : )
09:49 PM on 12/03/2012
If the writer is a conservative, then I'm Attila the Hun.
10:57 PM on 12/02/2012
Would a 10% flat rate of tax on ALL income earnt in the UK for personal and corporate entities work? No clauses. No special exemptions.

just a thought. Throw away ALL pre-existing rules (which probably means tax lawyers too I guess).

KISS at it's simplest.
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04:40 AM on 12/05/2012
Not especially smart considering coporations often only have a 15% profit margin on revenues. an effective 75% tax at minimum in most cases. Great way to drive the economy back to recovery.
10:53 PM on 12/02/2012
"Secondly, in 1997 Labour inherited a deficit of 3.9% of GDP (not a balanced budget ) and by 2008 it had fallen to 2.1% - a reduction of a near 50% - Impressive! Hence, it's implausible and ludicrous to claim there was overspending."

Ermm - there was still overspending of 2.1% - just not as much overspend as previously.

"Its common sense, in cash terms a millionaire's debt would be greater than most people." - yeah - the common sense is they have a BIGGER debt. Why is that any more sensible? Because they can pay it back perhaps, or because the creditors can be scared into accepting some losses to get ANYTHING back?

Having said that - I agree with your premise, but please be careful not to fall victim to teh same faults as they do
08:34 PM on 12/02/2012
Shysters, the lot of them.
If people really WANT change they would vote differently to the main 3 party circus that masquerades as 'democracy'.
None of the Lib-Lab-CON will ever give you a true referendum on EU membership.
None of them will stop immigration stealing your jobs and houses.
None of them will live next door to any of the 'multicultural enrichment' they often talk of.
None iof them will force big corporations to pay their fair amount of tax.
If you wanted a change, you'd change who you vote for.