Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the passenger list for a plane which crashed last night, and allegedly left no survivors.
But, there’s been no official confirmation from the Kremlin that the chief of Wagner PMC – a private mercenary group thought to have around 25,000 fighters – has actually died.
Prigozhin became an internationally known name after he attempted a coup of the Russian ministry of defence, simultaneously questioning Vladimir Putin’s authority, back in June.
Here’s what we know so far about this complex situation.
What do we know about the crash?
An aircraft owned by Prigozhin was flying from Moscow to St Petersburg with seven passengers and three crew on Wednesday. The Wagner chief was on the passenger list.
It crashed in the Tver region, north of Moscow, falling to the earth and exploding in a fireball around half an hour after take off.
Emergency workers told Interfax, the Russian news agency, that all 10 bodies have been recovered, although for a time only eight bodies could be found.
A Wagner linked Telegram channel, Grey Zone, was among those to report Prigozhin’s death. It claimed he was “killed as a result of actions by traitors of Russia”.
Russia’s investigative committee has “opened a criminal case” into the crash, according to its spokesperson, Svetlana Petrenko.
Why was Priogzhin important?
Prigozhin, a Russian oligarch, was so close to Russian president Vladimir Putin that he was nicknamed “Putin’s chef”. He owned restaurants which Putin would frequent, and had a criminal record.
He also set up the Wagner Group in 2014, when Moscow annexed the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea.
The fighters were used to discreetly fight on Russia’s behalf both in Ukrainian separatist areas and overseas, although they were technically operating outside of Russian law since it was illegal to have mercenaries.
But, at first, the group was so under wraps its fighters were just called “little green men”.
However, last year Prigozhin finally confessed that he was bankrolling the group and claimed the recent military successes Russia had against Ukraine were actually down to Wagner.
He then started to gain popularity among the Russian public as he became more vocal in opposition to the Kremlin’s management of the war.
Moscow then started to indicate that it would absorb Wagner troops into its main army, so Prigozhin staged a mutiny against the Russian ministry of defence.
Why was Prigozhin’s coup a big deal?
That was the first time anyone had put up substantial opposition to Putin’s rule since 2000, although Prigozhin claimed it was only a challenge to some of Putin’s senior team, not the president himself.
Still, the coup showed how popular Wagner really was.
The fighters successfully took one town, Rostov-on-Don, allegedly without any opposition from the locals.
But within 24 hours, the attempted mutiny was over.
When Wagner troops were just 200km away from Moscow, Belarus’s president, Alexander Lukashenko, managed to negotiate a new deal between Putin and Prigozhin.
The Wagner chief would be exiled to Belarus, and his Wagner fighters could either join him or be absorbed into the main army. Charges against Prigozhin were also mysteriously dropped.
However, Putin made it clear that he was still not happy and saw the failed coup as an assault on his own leadership. He said it was ”treachery” and a stab in the back of Russia.
What has happened since the coup?
It wasn’t clear what was going to happen with Wagner troops – and there were concerns that Belarus would grow in power if it had access to the paramilitaries.
That’s why there was speculation a power struggle between Lukashenko, Prigozhin and Putin was brewing.
Justin Crump, CEO of Sibylline intelligence consultancy and British army veteran, also told BBC Radio 4′s Today programme on Wednesday: “There are many claims about what Wagner is or isn’t doing, but I think reality is it has been dismembered over the last few months.
“The organisation has come under this deep level of scrutiny and a slow and steady operation to prevent it from having the level of power it clearly showed it had two months ago.”
Prigozhin also appeared to defy his exile last month as he was pictured at a summit Putin was hosting in Russia.
He generally kept a pretty low profile – but on Tuesday, he shared a video of himself supposedly in Africa, his first online appearance since the attempted coup.
His return was celebrated by his supporters. Telegram channel Grey Zone even shared the video with the caption: “Daddy is in the building.”
Why is there suspicion around his supposed death?
Well, the Kremlin has not yet confirmed the incident – and its silence is being questioned.
The whole incident has also received minimal coverage in the Russian media, which is tightly controlled by Moscow.
It’s worth noting that criticising the Kremlin has rarely gone down well. Putin’s main political opponent, Alexei Navalny is currently imprisoned for his attacks on the Kremlin over the years.
And Moscow has really cracked down on any kind of pushback against the state ever since Putin ordered the war (special military operation) in Ukraine.
Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhaylo Podolyak claimed on social media that the crash was a “signal from Putin to Russia’s elites ahead of the 2024 elections. ‘Beware! Disloyalty equals death.’”
There have been unconfirmed claims that there were two explosions around the time of the crash as well, which has led to speculation that the aircraft was shot out of the sky.
The incident occurred on the same day Russian general Sergei Surovikin was reportedly sacked too. He has not been seen in public since around the time of the coup, and was known to have a good relationship with Prigozhin.
CIA director William Burns even predicted last month that the Wagner mercenary leader would face backlash from Putin for the coup.
He said: “Putin is someone who generally thinks that revenge is a dish best served cold.
“In my experience, Putin is the ultimate apostle of payback so I would be surprised if Prigozhin escapes further retribution for this.”
Is there a chance he is not dead?
There’s been some speculation on social media that Prigozhin may not actually be dead, and the reality may be much more complicated.
But, as a brutal leader whose forces helped Russia significantly on the frontline, there is hope within Ukraine that he died.
Speaking from Kyiv, the BBC’s James Waterhouse said: “Until anyone hears confirmation or sees Prigozhin himself put out a video then I don’t think people will believe it fully – but there is a lot of willing here in Ukraine.”
