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Scottish Independence Vote Could Be Swung By English Voters

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English voters living in Scotland could swing the independence referendum towards a No vote, a poll suggests.

About two-thirds (66%) of English people living in Scotland intend to vote No on September 18 compared with 42% of Scots, a Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times and Heart Radio found.

Independence is the most popular choice amongst Scots, with 44% intending to vote Yes compared with just 27% of English people, the poll suggests.

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But the weight of non-Scottish votes is enough to sway the vote towards No with overall support for keeping the UK at 47% compared with 40% for Yes, according to the poll.

Meanwhile, a separate poll has put support for independence at its lowest point since last September.

Only 34% of people surveyed by ICM for the Scotland on Sunday support independence, down five points since the last ICM poll in April. Support for the UK is up four points from last month to 46%.

Better Together has also gained ground amongst Panelbase participants, rising two points to 47% from the last Panelbase poll, which was conducted for Yes Scotland in April, while Yes held steady at 40%.

Support for Yes is now 46% according to Panelbase and 42% according to ICM once undecided voters are excluded.

When undecided Panelbase participants were pressed to say how they would vote today, Yes gained ground slightly rising one point to 47%.

Yes Scotland said the latest polls indicate that "a Yes vote is within reach".

Independence is up three points from the last Sunday Times/Heart Panelbase poll in February while "average monthly support for Yes has been rising steadily" across all polls since the publication of the Scottish Government's white paper on independence, Yes Scotland said.

Yes Scotland chief executive Blair Jenkins said: "With precisely four months until the independence referendum, it is all to play for.

"The Yes movement has made big gains over the last six months and we are confident the upward trajectory of Yes will continue through to September.

He added: "There is a long way to go and a lot of hard work to be done.

"We are looking forward to that. We are confident that as more and more people engage in the debate they will see through the shallow negativity of the No campaign and seek real information about what independence will mean to them.
"The realisation will continue to grow that Scotland can, and should, be a fairer and more successful independent country, with the benefits shared by all, and the result on September 18 will reflect that."

:: Panelbase interviewed a representative sample of 1,046 adults resident in Scotland on May 8-14.

:: ICM Research interviewed an online sample of 1,003 people living across Scotland on May 12-15.