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Jon-Christopher Bua

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New Hampshire - The Battle for the Soul of the Republican Party

Posted: 9/01/2012 10:05

As I head off to New Hampshire for the Primary which is on Tuesday, one thing is clear - the battle for the soul of the Republican Party continues.

Some have criticised the early roles that Iowa and New Hampshire play in the Republican nomination process, however in many ways these two contests epitomise the two groups who are battling for the soul of the Republican party - the traditional Republican wing and the Evangelical Christian wing.

Iowa is a good example of a midwestern state where the Evangelical Christians are the key to success for any potential Republican nominee.

In Iowa - not part of the original strategy - Mitt Romney pulled off an amazing win in a squeaker of a race with Rick Santorum hot on his heels.

New Hampshire is a totally different cup of tea. Republicans in New Hampshire are strong fiscal conservatives and socially more liberal than their Iowa counterparts.

New Hampshire is a state where the voters are fiercely independent.

They are made of hard scrabble New England stock and more libertarian and less religiously conservative.

Don't forget this region of America known as 'New' England is where a hardy band of English men and woman risked life and limb to cross the Atlantic to seek religious freedom landing at nearby Plymouth Rock.

Even the names of its towns still echo that history - Peterborough, Manchester, Plymouth and the list goes on.

The state motto "Live Free or Die" expresses the essence of the people of the Granite State.

They believe in self-reliance and non-interference.

This is a state with a Democratic governor, one Democratic senator, one Republican senator and two Republican representatives in congress.

It is the 42nd most populous state.

New Hampshire is also a state that has passed a law guaranteeing gay marriage rights.

Like Iowa, New Hampshire is a small state were voters expect to be up close and personal with the candidates.

This is also a state where pounding the pavement and visiting community centers and local restaurants can make a real impact in the outcome of the race. Jon Huntsman is putting this principle to the test.

In 2008, John McCain who was running on empty at the time became the Republican nominee by pressing the flesh in New Hampshire.

Hillary Clinton also pulled off a New Hampshire surprise by beating Barack Obama just after he trounced both Clinton and John Edwards in Iowa.

So it is fitting that the traditional wing of the Republican Party gets its chance to weigh in on their choice of the nominee.

Romney was governor in the neighbouring state of Massachusetts and has a vacation home in New Hampshire, so its voters know him well.

New Hampshire voters seem to be rallying around their neighbour. Although the local papers have not been so kind - The Manchester Union Leader has endorsed Newt Gingrich and the neighbouring state's Boston Globe has endorsed Jon Huntsman.

Right now Romney holds a daunting lead over the rest of the pack with 40.2% almost 19 points ahead of the nearest competitor - Ron Paul with 20.8 % , Rick Santorum 10.6 %, Jon Huntsman 9.4 %, Newt Gingrich 8.6 % and Rick Perry 1.0 %.

All this means is that Romney is unlikely to lose here, although it is important that he has a resounding victory here since this is his home turf.

This sort of victory would give him the momentum and additional support he needs in the next race in South Carolina where he is likely to have a tougher time.

The real race in New Hampshire is for second place. Iowa did not do much to narrow the field, which is to Romney's advantage.

Santorum's Iowa bounce seems to have been short lived as he has had trouble selling his brand of conservative values to skeptical New England Yankee conservatives.

Right now, the other five candidates are splitting 50.4 % of the vote and the Republicans who believe in a strong social agenda are trying to come together behind one candidate other than Romney.

This also means that the chances for the other nominees to overtake him are growing slimmer by the day.

Although the debates and the primaries and caucuses arguably may make the ultimate nominee a better candidate, the longer this process goes on the more likely it is to damage and scar the eventual winner and make it harder for him to move to the middle to attract independent voters - those who really decide general elections.

New Hampshire could produce a surprise with Ron Paul, Rick Santorum or Jon Huntsman coming in a strong second.

If Santorum has any hope of overtaking Romney, he must have a strong showing in NH since part of his argument is that he can win in a swing state with working class voters.

If he shows a strong second place finish and he can lay exclusive claim to the Evangelical Christian vote he does have a chance to over take Romney down the line.

Just today, Gary Bauer, president of "American Values", another leading Evangelical voice, endorsed Santorum.

If Ron Paul has a strong second place showing he will still not be a true threat to Romney but such a showing almost guarantees him a prime spot at the Republican National Convention in Tampa - allowing him to affect the party's agenda.

Paul and his supporters could also threaten the success of the eventual Republican nominee if they fail to fall in line behind the party's choice - third Party Anyone?

If Huntsman pulls a 'Santorum Surprise' and comes in a strong second, it is still not clear he has the money or organisation to parlay this into a real opportunity to enter the fray in a meaningful way.

New Hampshire will set the stage for South Carolina where we may see just how long this process is likely to last.

Like Iowa, New Hampshire is not suffering from the high levels of unemployment experienced by states like South Carolina, Florida and Nevada.

These next three states are much more economically and demographically diverse than Iowa or New Hampshire - they are all important swing states and will also be battle grounds in the general election.

In 2008, Obama beat McCain in New Hampshire, Florida and Nevada and McCain won South Carolina in 2008.

So in less than a day we will see whether the rank and file in the Republican Party are ready to fall in love and line up behind Mitt or are still open to a flirtation with one of the others.

This blog can also be read on Sky News.

 
 
 
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11:58 on 11/01/2012
It was Supreme Court Justice Fields appointed by Lincoln that made the argument that corporations were a person.

More proof democrats and republicans have been destroying this country longer than any of us have been alive.

Ron Paul for president because unlike all the other puppet presidents, the current one included Ron Paul has no string attached, save the ones that bind us to freedom and liberty!
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11:52 on 11/01/2012
To believe in freedom and liberty is not to believe in any particular social and economic outcome.

It is to trust in the order that emerges when government does not intervene in human volition and human cooperation.

Ron Paul 2012 and beyond because it is going to take that long to right the wrongs!
12:49 on 10/01/2012
I don't think I've ever seen the words "republican" and "soul" in the same sentence before. Didn't they sell it for money and power (their real god) so they can tell you how much you don't deserve to succeed while giving their donors anything they want?
00:47 on 10/01/2012
I am mildly encouraged by the fact that Romney, Paul, and Huntsman comprise a big chunk of the voters in NH right now, seeing as they are the least social conservative of the group. Unfortunately that is not the same elsewhere, and the party is likely to remain overly-influenced religious zealots for a while yet...
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
l78lancer
Wisdom is the principal thing
23:58 on 09/01/2012
"Although the debates and the primaries and caucuses arguably may make the ultimate nominee a better candidate, the longer this process goes on the more likely it is to damage and scar the eventual winner and make it harder for him to move to the middle to attract independent voters - those who really decide general elections."
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That is precisely the problem thye face. Additionally, the cantidates will spend so much time effort and moneyfighting so hard and dragging up all of the bilge that exists on their opponents that they will save Obama some time and effort in the general election.
23:37 on 09/01/2012
My mother's family moved to what is now New Hampshire in the late 17th century. They joined the Republican Party in 1856 and one of my great-grandfather's was a Republican governor of the state. I must say that the New Hampshire primary is not a battle for the "soul of the Republican Party." The Republican Party has no soul.
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jsgaetano
"Conservative" is not a political party, genius.
23:10 on 09/01/2012
The hilarious thing is, they're battling over something they sold a long time ago.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Just logic
21:30 on 09/01/2012
If Ron Paul wins a strong 2nd he is still not a threat? But say if Huntman wins O Lord look out we have a serious challenger. Give me a break. I am so glad this is a blogger opinion and not the MSM. Not that I don’t see the same bias everywhere. Next they are gonna make people believe that Mitt with the baggage and the fact that 75% of the party cant stand him is the only candidate that can compete with Obama. Oh wait………
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jsgaetano
"Conservative" is not a political party, genius.
23:11 on 09/01/2012
#2 is the just first loser.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Just logic
14:18 on 10/01/2012
Maybe under the old system. But just like Iowa 3rd yielded the same amount of delegates. And delegates are what counts.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gevan
Give bees a chance
21:16 on 09/01/2012
Portsmouth, Dover, Exeter, Rochester...the list goes on. so?
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Opposition Research
Studying the enemies of civil liberty for 20 years
18:51 on 09/01/2012
The GOP lost its soul about 16 years ago.

What's happening right now is more like several demons fighting for control of a mind and body.
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busterggi
I'm a Sally Randian
20:05 on 09/01/2012
They didn't lose it, they sold it fair & square.
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Dinosaur David B
18:33 on 09/01/2012
What soul? The simply answer to their stockholders.
18:27 on 09/01/2012
Your interpretation of New Hampshire GOP politics is sadly dated. The tough-as-nails mountain independents are increasingly outnumbered by ex-Massachusetts folks in the south of the state, many of whom are Catholic and increasingly socially conservative. States change: who would've predicted that first-caucus Iowa would protect same-sex marriage rights before New York?
16:01 on 09/01/2012
Corporations are people and the republlican party has a soul and there is life on the dark side of the moon
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busterggi
I'm a Sally Randian
20:06 on 09/01/2012
You just might be right on that last one.
12:43 on 09/01/2012
Mr. Bua notes that "Hillary Clinton also pulled off a New Hampshire surprise by beating Barack Obama just after he trounced both Clinton and John Edwards in Iowa." But, as I recall, there was a cost. Mrs. Clinton "re-invented" herself for New Hamsphire, then "re-invented" herself again for Pennysylvania, and South Carolina and on and on. The more varieties of Hillary they saw, the more inauthentic her images and messages became.

This seems to be a reason at the critical juncture when Americans were weighing character as a major qualification in 2008 that Mrs. Clinton fell short

Percentage saying that the candidate was NOT honest or trustworth¬y: Hillary Clinton (53%), Obama (29%), McCain (27%)
http://www.gallup.com/poll/105097/perceived-honesty-gap-clinton-versus-obama-mcc-ain.aspx
03:14 on 10/01/2012
ATTENTION HILLARY SUPPORTERS:

The gullible Obama supporters have once again begun their attacks on Hillary now that she is abandoning the sinking SS Obama.

While they think that tearing her down will boost The Spineless One, they are losing votes from the Hillary 50% of the Dem Party.

Join Hillary and many of us in bailing from this train wreck.
11:05 on 10/01/2012
Thank you so much for sharing your insider knowledge. I am very interested in your frequent reports that Hillary Clinton is "bailing" on President Obama. IF we can believe you and her, this is excellent news. It should end all the needless speculation about her being the VP candidate on the Democratic ticket.

Is your sense from Hillary and her following that she will simply resign soon and retire, in the best interests of the nation?
or
Will she challenge President Obama for the Democractic nomination?
or
Will she run for president as an independent?
or
Will she endorse and campaign for one of the GOP candidates? Both Huntsman, who was ambassador to China and helped Hillary serve her corporate donors, or Rick Perry, who seems to be advocating a re-invasion of Iraq, one of Hillary's past priorities, could be prospects.

This is exciting. Please do keep posting on any new developments.
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Janet Root Wetherell
speaks my mind liberal/ coffeeparty member
12:29 on 09/01/2012
well to begin with the repub/tp has to have a soul..which appears to be lacking greatly..seconly not one of them cares one iota about the people only about themselves nd how they can use anything and everything to win..including religion..sad bunch!