Latest YouGov/The Sun poll shows the Budget hurts the Tories but doesn't help Labour
YouGov's first post-Budget poll for the Sun finds that Wednesday's announcements have dented Conservative support; they are now on 34%. They have never been lower since the 2010 election, though they have touched this number on a few occasions.
In contrast, Labour, on 42%, is broadly where it has been since early March. If our figures are exactly right, then the new ex-Tory voters have moved to minor parties such as UKIP.
As ever, we should be wary of small changes in a single poll. The fluctuations could be the result of sampling variation. In the next few days we shall be able to see whether the Tory decline is a blip or a trend. However, the questions we asked about the Budget are consistent with the view that the Tories have suffered without Labour benefiting:
That's the instant post-Budget verdict. We shall explore public attitudes further in this weekend's Sunday Times. Of course, the verdict that matters will not come for three years, at the next general election. In the meantime, both Cameron and Ed Miliband have clear lessons to draw: Cameron to persuade voters that his medicine really will strengthen Britain's economy, and that the impact of his policies is fairly spread; Miliband to show that he and Balls are more in touch with voters and can offer a practical alternative strategy to the Tories without weakening the public finances
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