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Willard Foxton

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Is Europe's Choice Really Austerity or Growth?

Posted: 16/05/2012 16:34

Some of the stories coming out of the eurozone are heart-breaking. Greece's unemployment has risen by 10% since february, a full-blown bank run seems to be taking place & fascists are being elected; Spain is back in recession; unemployment there is over 25 per cent, rising to a horrendous 50.5% for under-30s (in Greece, it's an equally nightmarish 50.4%); Portuguese are emigrating to Angola (of all places) at a rate of 20,000 a month.

Amid all this pain, my socialist friends are getting louder. "The bankers did it. Austerity policies in Europe are dangerous. Someone has to stop 'the madness' We need Growth, not cuts."

Are they right?

Sure, the UK is in a double dip recession, and some people compare the current recession with the great depression: while true in some narrow ways, such a parallel with the Grapes of Wrath is foolish given how wealthy we remain overall - especially compared with Portugal or Greece.

My grandfather had a brother who died of malnutrition in the 1930s. Now, even those at the very bottom of the ladder have the safety net of the NHS & the benefit system. Even compared to the recessions of the 1970s & 1980s, we are better off. Strikes & demonstrations are inconvenient, not a national crisis.

However, the Steinbeckian depression analogies are appropriate when analysing what is happening in Greece, where the suicide rate has increased five-fold, where bank accounts are emptying out, as anybody with any sense is moving their money out of the country or into non-financial assets.

Ed Miliband, and every other socialist, says that he will replace "austerity" with "growth". Why didn't anybody think of that before?

Unfortunately, his predicatable slogan is underpinned ludicrous proposals. One of the points in his five point "National plan for Jobs & Growth" is a 5% reduction in VAT on DIY supplies. Is that going to work? Really? Would that work in Greece? We'll grow by all buying cheap paint in Homebase? If you believe that, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.

Recently, when asked how he would deliver Growth, he replied: "Labour is on the side of working families - we will deliver change even in tough times". What does this even *mean*? Let's give him the benefit of the doubt, and assume he is less stupid than his statements suggest, and he wants a Keynesian solution.

Spending on infrastructure - "shovel-ready" projects, as Barack Obama has called them - is, of course, a standard Keynesian solution for an economy that is caught in a downward spiral. Under normal circumstances, such spending might be a great idea. Ed Milliband would love it. There would be hard hats, jobs, honest unionised labour, tea, roadworks, paperwork, delays, paperwork and strikes. And paperwork. I grant you, there is a chance it might work here.

However, where Milliband's "spend to grow" agenda goes wrong is in the past and future application of his theory. When Labour was in government, they decided to rely on the external market lending to fund public spending, instead of taxes. If you want to rely on the markets, you'd better be prepared to do what the markets want.

Alternatively, if you genuinely want Keynesian economics, you'd better have the balls (or Balls?) to cut spending during the boom years to pay for it during the bust. Keynesian means counter-cyclical, not running endless spiralling deficits.

But, within the EU, however, there are plenty of reasons to be sceptical that this strategy would work. If building roads and trains made your economy grow, Greece and Spain would be booming. The past 3 years have seen huge splurges in infrastructure spending, funded by the EU, much of it agreed during the boom years. But this kind of spending has done very little to change the fundamental problems that now plague both Greece and Spain - in particular, youth unemployment.

Worse, in some ways, EU funding for infrastructure has created problems. In Greece, milking the EU for subsidies has long been an industry in itself: politics in many EU countries has long been dominated by decisions of exactly where to splurge EU cash.

Even in France, where Hollande is leading the charge against austerity, it is hard to argue that the problem is that the state is not doing enough. Despite Sarkozy's claims to have brought in austerity - the unpopularity of which Hollande owes his election victory to - the French state currently consumes 56% of GDP & has some of the highest taxes in the world. How much more state spending can create growth?

The truth is,the real problem with growth, *is* the Eurozone and the EU. The Euro enabled the "Club Med" nations to borrow vastly beyond their means to fund keynsian projects, with no checks or balances on the spending. Politics in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy became about who could promise more EU cash to the voters. The EU enabled the suicide economics which has prolonged and deepened the recession in Europe, meaning the banking crisis became a depression. Now the depression is on, the Euro has trapped europe in a depression, and the cancer is metasizing into the non-Euro economies, as our only permitted free-trade area chokes. It's not about Growth or Austerity - it's about Europe.

European politics has meant that the only option open to the countries within the Eurozone has been to devalue by shedding jobs and cutting wages, which has only increased the recessionary spiral. While Germany & France are united on keeping the Euro afloat, all of the perpheral economies are *fucked*, so Merkel can win elections in Germany. While I won't go as far as the kind of blood-curdling rhetoric which emerges from Nigel Farage, any democrat should be concerned about the naked removal of the elected rulers in Greece & Italy when they dared to stand up to Merkel & Sarkozy.

Indeed, the recent "fiscal compact" that the Merkel & the EU insist on imposing on Greece and the other peripheral nations (which only Cameron had the balls to oppose) would actually ban the kind of Keynsian policy some think would save the Euro through growth.

Where is the only place in Europe enjoying real, sustained growth? Germany, of course. Germans can happily insist on austerity for everyone else, knowing, paradoxically, that by keeping the euro cheap, it gives them an enormous competitive advantage in exports. So the German economy soars away, and the only price is pain and turmoil in Greece, Portugal, Spain and everywhere else in Europe. The only threat to this is the chance that the Greek people may elect a Keynsian anti-bailout party, who may say "No".

This crisis is an object lesson in globalisation. National politics - except those of Greece - are effectively suspended until the euro crisis is resolved one way or the other. Here's hoping it's resolved soon.

 

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Some of the stories coming out of the eurozone are heart-breaking. Greece's unemployment has risen by 10% since february, a full-blown bank run seems to be taking place & fascists are being elected; S...
Some of the stories coming out of the eurozone are heart-breaking. Greece's unemployment has risen by 10% since february, a full-blown bank run seems to be taking place & fascists are being elected; S...
 
 
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08:29 PM on 05/20/2012
‎"Keynesian means counter-cyclical, not running endless spiralling deficits" Simple but true. Everyone who is preaching Keynesian economic theory must has only recently converted because they certainly weren't trying to rein spending in during the boom years.
03:40 PM on 05/17/2012
I'm afraid you misrepresent Labour's five point plant.

Under the plan VAT would be cut TO 5% for homeowners and small businesses making home improvements, not just a reduction of 5% as you claim. See: http://www.labour.org.uk/plan
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Willard Foxton
05:31 PM on 05/17/2012
Oh, my mistake, 15% off paint & MDF *WOULD* save the economy.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Paul Wagland
Resistance is fertile
06:51 PM on 05/17/2012
Another point of order: It's wrong to refer to Homebase paint using the relative term 'cheap', because B&Q operate a price-match scheme.
07:11 PM on 05/17/2012
A 15% point reduction in VAT is actually a 12.5% reduction in price,but I know maths was never your favourite subject! Incidentally, I don't think this would achieve much, if anything in the long run as the European scrappage schemes have shown. All they've done is brought purchases forwards, which looks good in the short term, but just means that a year down the line business has slumped as everyone that might have needed new DIY items / cars has already bought them. There's now a massive mismatch between car supply and demand in Europe, hence the impending closure of Opel's German Astra plant.
02:23 PM on 05/17/2012
The Euro was supposed to bring balance to the disparate European economies, but instead simply made the Germans more cost effective and export oriented by artificially holding their currency down. Conversely, it's made the peripheral Euro economies less cost effective and more import oriented by keeping their currencies high. These imbalances can't last forever and unwinding them is going to be messy for Greeceand expensive for Germany. Either Germany stumps up the cash for direct transfers to invest in Greece, implements Eurobonds, (driving up German interest rates and lowering everyone else's) or it lets Greece go. In which case Greece defaults on loans which were either from German banks to buy German built goods and arms, or from the ECB. Which Germany funds. And the Euro appreciates, making German exports dearer. I'm not sure the Germans fully appreciate that they're going to pay for this one way or another.

What I don't think a lot of people realise is that this is all a small-scale version of the Chinese-US relationship of the last 10-20 years. For Germany read China, for Euro periphery read the the US, for common currency read Yuan-dollar fix and for irresponsible lending read massive Chinese purchases of US treasury bonds to fund American purchases of Chinese consumer goods. That's all going to end in tears too at some point.
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Paul Wagland
Resistance is fertile
01:17 PM on 05/17/2012
Great article - we need more contributions like this. The biggest problem to my mind is the precept of never-ending growth. How is that even possible?
01:22 PM on 05/17/2012
If by growth, you mean consumption, then no, never ending simply isn't possible as you hit physical or environmental limits (I'm deliberately ignoring sci fi options like moving off world here). However, what really drives growth is productivity improvements, which are in theory infinite.
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Willard Foxton
01:31 PM on 05/17/2012
Never ignore the Sci-fi options Matt. I, for one, look forward to moving to Moonbase Gingrich.
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Paul Wagland
Resistance is fertile
06:44 PM on 05/17/2012
In theory, yes, but increasing productivity is eventually pointless and wasteful in the face of finite consumption.
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Ben Wilson
What's the story mourning Tories?
12:53 PM on 05/17/2012
We need a bit of everything. A bit of speculation for accumilation, a bit of budget cuts, a bit of tax rise, and a bit bigger tax rise on the rich and a bit of sensible regulation. We are in it together right?

We all know budget cuts are being made to cover a future tax cut on the rich, which will cancel out the efforts in the hope a cut willl stimulate wealth creation in a market that is still over saturated. The market needs trimming, tree's need to be sacrificed for the forest floor. More banks=more competition=greater risk taking=bigger bailouts....Less banks=more wealth=less risk. Change bank for airlines, or any other sector of the economy. Competition is great, but too much is exactly what causes boom and bust.