Alessio Rastani is not a hoax, he is not anti-capitalist, and he is probably not a psychopath. He is also, he tells the Huffington Post UK, not selling anything.
Rastani was injected into the public eye in late September after a BBC interview where he predicted that the financial markets would crash in the midst of the turmoil created by the European sovereign debt crisis. If he had left it there, he might have slipped through unnoticed, but he went further.
“I go to bed every night dreaming of another recession," he said. "It's an opportunity." He went on to explain to a shocked host that it was the investment bank, Goldman Sachs, not governments, that ruled the world.
In three short minutes, Rastani went from a virtual unknown to the pantomime villain. Throughout the interview, he came across as a parody of the heartless vulture of a trader gloating over the collapse of the world economy. Online, he became a sensation, called in equal measures a whistleblower and a psychopath.
He appeared to be such a perfect pastiche, in fact, that speculation immediately began that the trader was a hoax organised by the Yes Men, the group that successfully infiltrated the news media in 2004 to pose as a Dow Chemicals spokesperson and announce reparations for the Bhopal chemical disaster.
There was considerable disappointment when Rastani turned out to be neither the evil embodiment of a parasitic industry, nor a talented satirist, but a self-employed trader and public speaker, living in a semi-detached house in Bexleyheath.
In person, he looks the part of a trader in a sharp suit and dark tie, but exhibits a lack of caution with his opinions that belies his background outside of the corporate world, where the message is tightly controlled.
“Some people thought it was too good to be true, a trader coming out and saying that,” he said. “If somebody who worked for the FT or the bank went up there and said these things, I’m pretty sure they’d be fired. They would say, ‘hey, you can’t say that, you’d damage our reputation,’ even if it was true. And it is true.”
Lost in the noise, he said, is the fact that his opinions were not exactly divergent from the market view. Policy confusion in the West and the apparent intractability of the European sovereign debt crisis have led to widespread speculation in the more excitable corners of the financial press that a Greek default and subsequent collapse of the euro are inevitable and imminent. Stockpicking magazines and TV channels routinely inform professional traders how to protect their assets from recession, pumping the value of gold, cash and other safe haven assets.
In the US, stock analysts rarely spare the hyperbole, predicting everything from soaring overnight rallies to total social collapse and war, before dusting themselves off and working on fresh views for the next morning. Saying that the markets could collapse, and that money could be made in the process, is not an innovation.
“I thought everyone knew that. I didn’t think it was controversial,” Rastani said. “My personal opinion, and nobody seems willing to say this, is that nobody seems to have a solution [to the economic downturn]. The smart money is not convinced about the solution so far. That’s why they’re dumping stocks. Look - if people are really worried about the situation, we should be able to profit from it at least ... I want to help people understand, there are methods and strategies out there that can help people profit from a falling market.”
Rastani, who dropped out of a dentistry degree to study law, but never practiced, has been trading at home for six years, despite getting his fingers burned while playing with stocks during the dotcom bubble. His website, leadingtrader.com, is a mix of missives on trading through a recession with testimonials for his skills as a speaker and tutor. The site is part of his mission to warn and to educate people, he said.
“What I’m suggesting is, in the same way that people spend money buying luxuries they can’t afford, buying new cars… Why not spend that same money getting some financial education and learn how to make money in a market crash. There are some good books out there and some good courses out there,” Rastani said. “It’s not rocket science. there are risks involved, that’s true, but for me, the biggest risk is doing nothing.”
Many of his views are on the apocalyptic side of downbeat. Government guarantees on deposits could turn out to be worthless, he said, meaning that savers have to get smart, and quick.
“We can’t just sit comfortably and wait for the solution, we have to take some measures to protect what we have. If you don’t want to make money from a downward market like those guys did in the depression, then fine. You need to protect what you have right now, while you have time,” he explained.
But what about Goldman Sachs. The bank has not been in touch to protest the suggestion that it “rules the world”. Conspiracy theories about the institution dubbed “a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money,” by the Rolling Stone writer Matt Taibi, are widespread on the internet, and mainly centre around the figure of Henry Paulson, the architect of the US’ bailout of its financial sector and a former CEO of Goldman. Rastani repeats many of them in a five minute diatribe, concluding: “Coincidence? I don’t think so. Again, the whole thing about Goldman Sachs ruling the world... It really doesn’t interest me that much.
“Governments rely on banks, banks rely on governments. The relationship is so blurred. It’s so grey that, you know, who controls who? Who is the puppeteer and who is the puppet? People can make up their own minds about that. I was expressing my view.”
He is also keen, despite the anger he directs at governments, banks and economists, not to be branded as the world’s only anti-capitalist trader.
“I’m not anti-capitalist. I’m not political at all. I’m not anti-capitalist. I actually support capitalism, I think it’s a good thing. I just think you can have capitalism without corruption,” he said.
The media storm around Rastani seems to be petering out, although he said he is still in demand for commentary and he has taken on a publicist. He claims that he never went out looking for the spotlight.
“Don’t get me wrong, who doesn’t want to have a little bit of attention on TV every now and again. But if I wanted to be an attention-seeker, I would have gone into the media in the first place.”
Nevertheless, he said, the attention has been worth it to get his message out.
“When it all started. There was a dark moment, when I thought, oh my god, what have I just done? Because there were reporters on my doorstep for three days. So there was a dark moment. But I don’t regret what I did because I’ve been getting emails, lots of support from people saying ‘thanks for telling the truth.’ A lot of emails have said ‘you’ve woken me up’,” Rastani said.
“It’s a scary moment. If I’ve managed to wake some people up and make them feel uncomfortable, that’s a good thing. I’d much rather be prepared than sorry.”