COP27: What Will Be The Sticking Points For This Year's Climate Summit?

A lot is riding on this international conference in Egypt.
COP27 has started this week
COP27 has started this week
MOHAMMED ABED via Getty Images

COP27 kicks off this week in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, and it’s set to be full of tension.

Also known as the UN’s Climate Change Conference or the Conference of the Parties, representatives from more than 190 countries are expected to turn up in a bid to reduce the damage the world does to the environment.

After a year of climate catastrophes, including Pakistan floods, European heatwaves and Hurricane Ian, implementing change has never been more important.

But just how much should we expect from the climate summit over the next 12 days?

With pressure already building on the conference – its start was delayed due to frictions over the agenda – here are the upcoming issues likely to grab headlines over the next few weeks.

1. Climate compensation

This is set to be the top priority of this year’s conference.

Many less developed countries have faced the full force of the climate crisis. A third of Pakistan, for instance, was pushed under underwater recently after intense floods – despite the country itself contributing less than 0.5% of the carbon emissions which have created the climate crisis.

Other low-laying nations face the same threat, just because of where they are geographically, means they will pay the price for the CO2 emissions from more developed nations.

UK negotiators have already supported an agreement to address “loss and damage” payments to the countries heavily affected, although it must be levelled with the cost of living crisis as it tightens its grip across Europe.

The UK in particular is trying to plug a “fiscal black hole” of around £60 million through tax hikes and spending cuts.

The economic cost of climate change is expected to reach $1 trillion (£0.87 trillion) by 2050.

Labour’s Ed Miliband has said it is a “moral responsibility” for developed countries to pay other nations affected by climate crisis.

Disagreements over compensation also threatened to derail Cop26 in Glasgow last year.

Commuters make their way through a flooded street after heavy rains in Karachi on September 13, 2022.
Commuters make their way through a flooded street after heavy rains in Karachi on September 13, 2022.
RIZWAN TABASSUM via Getty Images

2. Will we meet 1.5C by 2030?

A recent report from UN Climate Change expressed pressing concerns that the world’s efforts to reach 1.5C by the end of the century are still insufficient.

It said: “The combined climate pledges of 193 Parties under the Paris Agreement could put the world on track for around 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century.”

It also found that current commitments will increase emissions by “10.6% by 2030 compared to 2010 levels”.

While this is a slight reduction compared to 2021′s assessment (it found emissions would increase by 13.7% by 2030), it’s still not enough.

Unless countries are willing to do more to limit global temperature increase to 1.5C, the most significant impacts of climate change, such as more extreme weather patterns, are only going to get worse.

Executive secretary of UN Climate Change Simon Stiell said: “We are still nowhere near the scale and pace of emission reductions required to put us on track toward a 1.5 degree Celsius world.

“To keep this goal alive, national governments need to strengthen their climate action plans now and implement them in the next eight years.”

It also revealed that Net Zero target may not be met by 2050, as is the goal, but the world may have reduced it by 68% from 2019 levels.

Old tree skeletons are exposed due to extremely low water levels at Colliford Lake near Bodmin on August 12, 2022 in Cornwall, United Kingdom.
Old tree skeletons are exposed due to extremely low water levels at Colliford Lake near Bodmin on August 12, 2022 in Cornwall, United Kingdom.
Matt Cardy via Getty Images

3. Fossil fuels

The ongoing energy crisis across Europe will add further pressure.

As Russia looks to punish the countries which support Ukraine in the war by withdrawing its fossil fuel energy exports, nations have been looking desperately to plug the gap from elsewhere.

While this should mean the argument for green energy gets stronger, the shortage and potential blackouts facing Europe in particular this winter could cloud its judgement.

Many nations for which oil, gas and coal are its main exports are not likely to support other countries pulling out of the industry either.

The tensions between the US and China could also mean countries have a reason to backslide on previous climate promises. China is the world’s largest emitter, and the US was instrumental in getting Beijing to commit to reducing methane emissions last year.

However, relations between the two countries are now strained ever since US Hose speaker Nancy Pelosi travelled to Taiwan, and negotiations have halted.

Protesters calling for action on the climate crisis and energy bills in the UK
Protesters calling for action on the climate crisis and energy bills in the UK
SOPA Images via Getty Images

4. Underlying diplomatic pressures

Egypt’s own record on human rights remains a source of contention, threatening to overshadow the whole conference.

Prime minister Rishi Sunak is expected to raise the issue of Alaa Abd El-Fattah, the British-Egyptian democracy activist and blogger who is on hunger strike in an Egyptian jail now, with its Egyptian counterpart.

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has ruled Egypt since the former army chief staged a coup in 2013. There are concerns that, by hosting such a pivotal summit there, the Egyptian government will be able to claim the West has legitimised its rule.

Famous environmental activist Greta Thunberg also refused to attend the conference partly out of solidarity with Fattah.

Then, there are the ongoing tensions between the UK and France about the migrant crisis and how to mange to arrival asylum seekers to English borders.

The US and China’s relations will remain frosty over Taiwan too – a sore topic, which may soon involve the UK as a trade minister is set to travel there for talks this week.

French President Emmanuel Macron shakes hands with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (R) upon his arrival at the Elysee Palace in Paris on July 22, 2022.
French President Emmanuel Macron shakes hands with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (R) upon his arrival at the Elysee Palace in Paris on July 22, 2022.
Antoine Gyori - Corbis via Getty Images
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