Ed Miliband has an odd Habit

Ed Miliband has an odd Habit

Do you remember the scorn poured on Ed Miliband when he first coined the term "the squeezed middle"? Particularly when he refused on the Today Programme to put a monetary value to their earnings. Ed understood that if the squeezed middle was to work as a political theme, it would have to be something that people instinctively opted into. Not something they were labelled as by others.

Several months on from that scorn and the squeezed middle is deeply embedded in our political lexicon. We all know whether it applies to us - and most of us think it does. The Tories are using it and the media are using it. No one is pouring scorn now.

There was also criticism (from brave unnamed Shadow Cabinet members apparently) about Ed's decision to lead the charge against Murdoch. Until that paid political dividends.

The public are increasingly worried that the Tories are cutting too far and too fast with too little effect. While most of the recent Com Res survey was gloomy for Labour, The public are turning on Cameron with 57% in a recent poll saying his handling of the economy was poor.

They may not yet be willing to trust Labour with the economy but they are losing trust in the Tories fast. That won't be enough to elect a Labour Government, but it will certainly help. What looked like it might be a jobless recovery is now looking increasingly like an unemployment-heavy contraction. Those who counselled that Labour must change its message on the economy are being proved more and more wrong with every dismal forecast and every bleak downgrade.

Last Week, Ed's speech was dubbed a disaster by some on the Labour right. This week some of his themes are being echoed by David Cameron. In the mean time he's won cautious plaudits in some unlikely places.

Ed has an odd habit of being right too early for some to accept. He's become a thought leader while people still ridicule his leadership. He's talking to the public, in language they like and are adopting. He's taking brave choices that resonate and he's having some of his tunes being danced to by the Government of the day.

The bad news is that as yet, the polls aren't picking this up. Ed's leadership is not considered to be the asset these successes would normally indicate for Labour. His laid back - sometimes geeky, sometimes casually assured - style is not loaded with traditional leadership memes. He doesn't have the blood and thunder rhetoric of Brown, the messianic charm of Blair or the Eton-embedded flair of Cameron or the iron certainty of Thatcher.

While Ed is becoming a better speaker, the constraints of the outmoded leadership speech don't play to his strengths. Ed should be brave enough to ditch it for a Q and A or off the cuff format. Or perhaps even an "in conversation" with a leading journalist. It might be risky, but with a potential payoff that could vastly outweigh the benefits of just getting a bit better at podium speaking. And frankly, being risky suits Ed. It's how he beat his brother to the leadership of the Labour Party.

Ed needs to close the gap between his presenting an idea and that idea becoming an accepted part of the political narrative. If they stop playing it safe, he could find it pays enormous dividends for his personal ratings and the polling health of his Party as a result.

Ed Miliband has an odd habit of understanding what's going to happen and how things will play out despite traditional indicators going against him. Ed Miliband believes he will be the next Prime Minister. I wouldn't be in too much of a hurry to bet against him.

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