New World - Post Imperial

Within 12 hours of the Libyan rebels, entering Tripoli, Egypt finally recognised the National Transition Council NTC as the legitimate government of Libya.

Within 12 hours of the Libyan rebels, (Free Libyans, as they reject the term 'rebels'), entering Tripoli, Egypt finally recognised the National Transition Council NTC as the legitimate government of Libya, while the NTC flag was hoisted on the Libyan embassy in Algiers, Algeria, the only military dictatorship left in North Africa, still thought to be a possible refuge for Col Gaddafi.

Algeria has been helping him bust sanctions and was a supply rout since UNSC resolution 1973 was issued six months ago.

Despite swift drive by rebels into Tripoli, ( thanks to British, and allies' Special Forces involvement ) there are formidable challenges facing the NTC, even if they pacify unpredictable Gaddafi's loyalists.

Unlike Egypt where the army, (a massive institution baggier than most states in the region) stepped in to remove President Mubarak, there is no army with a recognisable structure in Libya. Seeing the army as possible coup-threat, Gaddafi allocated brigades to his sons and as he ran Libya like a mafia family business.

There were no political institutions. He hardly built any infrastructure while oil refineries and services mainly operated by migrant labour and skilled staff from Eastern Europe and Africa, as he feared a working class creating a trade union movement.

During their meeting ten days ago in London with British officials, NTC correctly predicted the "final battle," in a few days would be over soon by an uprising inside Tripoli when rebels approach the city.

In response to British officials warning that "Stabilising Tripoli will not be easy," NTC people said they had a plan based on several plans presented by USA, the UK and the UN.

NTC as a temporary caretaker government has unveiled a temporary constitutional declaration. It stipulates the election of a National Council, numbering 200/210 people. It will have constitutional legitimacy.

A draft constitution has been circulating since August 9, to different parties to introduce amendments and put to a referendum within 6-9 months, providing framework for the political system.

NTC then gives way to an appointed transitional government. It spends 12 months of debate among and constitutional drafting; this could be extended to 20 months at the end of which there will be parliamentary and presidential elections.

NTC indicated their desire for reconciliation. However, "those with blood on their hands" will not be welcome for inclusion in the transition period, they assure me.

The Berber pink flag was flying in many locations in Benghazi and Tripoli alongside the NTC tricolour flag with crescent and star - which were not allowed to speak their Amazeigh language or fly their flag under Gaddafi's Pan-Arab nationalism. A good sign of inclusivity and accepting the rainbow of tribal and ethnical diversity. But there are already complaints that NTC do not want to include Gaddafi associates in the NTC. They say Public opinion will have a role.

Although this debate goes own, there is a consensus to avoid mistakes of other countries, notably Iraq.

The difference is the Americans who made the terrible mistake of dismantling Iraqi security apparatuses after Saddam's fall in 2003, are not in charge of Libya.

NTC were advised by London to rebuild the army which Gaddafi with key defectors officers organising such task. Unlike most armies in the region, new Libyan army not involved in politics.

They also need to recall the police and security services, especially as they need good will from the general population.

There is also fear regarding human rights, and rights of women, raised by organisations like Human Rights Watch. There is no judiciary system worth speaking of in Libya and rewriting the penal code, training judges and lawyers. This is more challenging than Iraq was.

Economy is another challenge. Although Italian oil companies ( an others too returning to fulfil their contracts) are rushing in and will be in Libya this week, only 43,000 Libyan nationals employed in oil sector.

With gust and migrant workers leaving, and a great deal of infrastructure needs building with large number of skilled and educated Libyans returning from the Diaspora, there will be many more jobs created employing record number of Libyans. However this will take at least two years and also need security to assure businesses. Prime Minister David Cameron is focusing on plans from DEFID, although the NTC urging unfreezing of assets and resumption of oil export.

However NTC are not clear on how to disarm civilians who fought the revolution and who would disarm them.

They haven't also spelt out a plan B or accepted the idea of multinational force from countries with no colonial past in Libya like Scandinavian nations, India or Jordan, all have disciplined armies.

Whether NTC optimism translates itself into workable plans, remain to be seen.

Close

What's Hot