Here's my prediction: social issues will matter in the 2012 Presidential election. By that I mean that the candidate who can best control the public narrative surrounding the inevitable debates America will have about divisive socio-cultural issues between now and November will significantly improve their chances of winning the White House.
The 2012 election was supposed to be all about the economy. And to some extent, it is- there's no mistaking the modest but perceptible upswing in the President's approval ratings in the wake of the February 3rd unemployment report.
Yet in the 10 days since that unemployment report was released, political news coverage has been dominated not by economic matters but rather by three separate 'Culture War' controversies that have descended upon America: the Komen Foundation-Planned Parenthood spat, the Proposition 8 ruling, and the administration's stance on birth control. In short, 2012 is shaping up just like virtually every other Presidential election in recent history. We Americans just love arguing about social issues - especially abortion and gay marriage- and in the absence of truly earthshattering economic developments before November 6, these debates may end up swinging the election. It's not just the economy, stupid.
Controversies about 'Culture War' issues can uniquely affect electoral outcomes by increasing voter turnout among certain groups. On the Democratic side, these debates increase turnout among college students and affluent liberals, groups that are relatively isolated from economic concerns but care deeply about things like reproductive rights. On the Republican side, as Karl Rove keenly realized in 2004, these debates increase turnout among religious conservatives. While exit polls on Election Day will surely report that most voters cited the economy as their top concern, social issue voters will choose the winner in states where the economic vote is closely divided.
In 2012, unsurprisingly, the social issue likely to cause the biggest impact is gay marriage. Ballot questions on same-sex marriage will appear before voters in North Carolina and Minnesota, and possibly in Maine and Washington as well. Among this group, North Carolina (15 electoral votes) is almost certain to be a crucial swing state: a southern state that Obama carried in 2008 with a lead of 0.33%, a repeat victory here would virtually guarantee his re-election. Maine (four electoral votes), Washington (12), and Minnesota (10) all lean democratic, but any of them could become close enough to force Obama to campaign there, reducing his competitiveness in other swing states.
I'm sure that many democrats worry that such ballot questions will hurt Obama's chances in these states. Indeed, John Kerry's loss in 2004 is often attributed to Ohio's ballot question on same-sex marriage that year, which may have increased turnout among Bush-voting evangelical Christians. However, Obama need not meet the same fate. These ballot questions are, in fact, a major opportunity for Obama. Polling indicates that public opinion has shifted decisively leftward on social issues, especially same-sex marriage, over the last eight years.
The conservative base that will turn out against gay marriage is smaller than ever, and the liberal base that will turn out in support is larger than ever. In particular, these social issues give Obama an easy way of turning out liberal-yet-apathetic young voters who support the President but might not have voted otherwise.
But in order to fully exploit this opportunity, the Obama campaign must change its tone. While the President seems ready for a fight over his economic record, Obama is still running away from his positions on social issues rather than defending them. This has to change. It's time for Obama to stop "evolving" his position on same-sex marriage and just endorse it already. It's time for Obama to stop trying to compromise on the birth control battle and start explaining why women deserve access to contraception even if their employers don't like it. And it's time for Obama to call out the absurdity of "pro-life" people trying to defund an organisation that performs cancer screenings. This is how Obama will turn out his base, and this is how he will win in 2012.