Forget the New Labour icons Tony Blair and Alan Milburn. Ignore the business bosses Stuart Rose and Stefano Pessina. If Ed Miliband isn't prime minister after the general election in May, he has only one person to blame: himself.
The Labour leader, contrary to the lazy conventional wisdom, has the potential to be a good, even great, premier. He has, his friends say, a "Thatcher-esque" ambition to transform the British political and economic scene and has proved to be one of the most influential leaders of the opposition in living memory, forcing issues such as phone-hacking, the cost of living and Palestinian statehood on to the political agenda. If he wins on 7 May, he will walk through the door of No 10 with more high-level government experience - as a former cabinet minister and an ex-Treasury adviser - than Tony Blair and David Cameron combined when they entered Downing Street.
Yet it isn't just his opponents who question whether Miliband will become prime minister. A growing number of his supporters do, too. Such is the right-wing reflex of much of our press that the only critique of the Labour leader which gets a hearing these days comes from either business bosses or Blairite ultras. There are, however, many centre-left MPs, peers and activists who backed Miliband's insurgent leadership candidacy in the summer of 2010 but who now have their own issues with the Labour leader and his failures. They gather in the pubs and tearooms of Westminster to moan and groan about their man, more in sorrow than in anger.
Consider the following five questions that disillusioned "Ed-ites" often obsess over - and that Miliband has yet to address, in public or in private. First, why has a former television researcher - yes, Miliband worked briefly on Channel 4's A Week in Politics in the early 1990s - failed to recognise how abjectly awful his performances on TV have been since 2010? Why hasn't he taken urgent steps to improve them? In 2011 David Cameron hired Craig Oliver, a former editor of the BBC's News at Ten, to be his director of communications. Miliband preferred to appoint three veteran lobby correspondents with zero experience in television, waiting until as late as September 2014 to recruit Matthew Laza, a former producer for the BBC of The One Show, to serve as his head of broadcasting.
Second, how did this son of Holocaust survivors allow his family's compelling story to be ignored so easily, despite high-profile attacks from the Daily Mail and the pro-Israeli actress Maureen Lipman (who announced that she would be abandoning Labour until it was "led by mensches" - the Yiddish word for people of integrity)? How many are aware that Miliband publicly challenged a Sudanese diplomat over his "disgusting" comparison of efforts to fight climate change with the Holocaust in 2009? A video of him receiving a standing ovation from UN delegates sits unwatched on an obscure BBC News web page and unused by Labour Party spinners. (Google "'Don't wreck conference' pleas Miliband [sic]" if you have three minutes to spare.)
Third, why is a former climate change secretary who launched a "clean coal" policy, who debated against the climate sceptic Nigel Lawson and helped - in the words of the science writer Fred Pearce - "save" the Copenhagen summit in 2009 shedding voters to a resurgent Green Party? Forget "Red Ed"; whatever happened to "Green Ed"?
Fourth, why isn't Miliband - whom the Daily Telegraph described in 2009 as one of the "saints" of the parliamentary expenses scandal - leading the assault on our sclerotic political establishment? Why has he ceded this fertile terrain to a former City trader named Nigel Farage, who once boasted he'd claimed up to £2million in expenses and allowances from the European Parliament?
Fifth, why has one of today's few front-line Labour politicians who opposed the disastrous 2003 invasion of Iraq kept so quiet about his anti-war record? Why hasn't he led the charge against the inexcusable delay in the publication of the Chilcot report? Labour is haemorrhaging voters to a range of anti-Iraq-war parties, from the Greens and the SNP to the Lib Dems. And yet, speaking at Prime Minister's Questions on 21 January, Miliband remarked, almost as an aside, "Frankly, my views on the Iraq war are well known." Sorry, Ed, they aren't.
The public doesn't have a clue that in early 2003 he phoned Gordon Brown - as I revealed in the New Statesman in 2010 - from the US, where he was on a sabbatical at Harvard, to urge the then chancellor to resist Tony Blair's march to war. (A former Downing Street aide told me how Brown "took Ed's phone call very seriously but, ultimately, other views prevailed".)
Yet on Iraq, as on MPs' expenses, Miliband has taken a vow of silence. Why? To avoid, I'm told, embarrassing or provoking front-bench colleagues who did abuse their expenses and did cheerlead for the war in Iraq - despite Labour's private polling showing how Miliband's record on these issues is of huge appeal to floating voters. "The price of unity has been radicalism," a friend of the Labour leader says. Another one told me that he "has to stop rewarding bad behaviour... He accommodates too much to others and isn't forceful enough."
Miliband is said privately to declaim that he is "strategically bold but tactically cautious". The inescapable problem for this wannabe prime minister is that, day after day, caution wins out. The Labour leader cannot afford to be his own worst enemy, as he approaches the closest general election in a generation. Cravenness doesn't win political battles. Courage does.
Mehdi Hasan is the political director of the Huffington Post UK and a contributing writer for the New Statesman, where this column is crossposted